NFL Week 10 Survivor Pool Analysis, Percentages and Pick: 5 Pivot Options Off the Green Bay Packers
Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Drew Brees (9) of the Saints.
Last week we nearly had chaos as the four most popular picks (Steelers, Patriots, Texans, Chiefs) all played in much closer games than many were expecting.
All four were able to eek out wins and subsequently there were very few eliminations in Week 9. The Cardinals were the only team to lose among teams favored by more than a field goal.
The Jets are on bye so many who were simply fading them each week will have to pivot to another team. The popular choice is the Green Bay Packers who are currently 14-point favorites against the Jaguars across the market. Are the Packers an easy pick this week or should we fade with a better option? Let's take a look at the data to find out.
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Here are the projected win percentages for the remainder of the season:
And here are the top options this week with their projected pick percentages and expected value.
| Team | Pick % | Model | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | 54.2% | 77.7% | 0.92 |
| Saints | 24.2% | 77.2% | 1.12 |
| Steelers | 3.8% | 73.0% | 1.25 |
| Dolphins | 0.5% | 66.7% | 1.19 |
| Lions | 2.8% | 65.6% | 1.14 |
| Ravens | 3.1% | 64.4% | 1.11 |
| Cardinals | 0.1% | 63.4% | 1.10 |
| Buccaneers | 0.2% | 61.6% | 1.10 |
| Titans | 0.5% | 61.1% | 1.08 |
With more than half of picks expected to be on Green Bay, every other play in the table has a positive expected value. The reason being that if Jacksonville is able to pull off the upset, more than half of the competition is eliminated and your expected value more than doubles.
The Saints are the best option this week. They don't have a remaining game on the schedule projected to be easier than their home game against the 49ers on Sunday.
The same can't be said about the Steelers, who still have good projected weeks remaining including 82% to win in Week 13 against Washington.
The Dolphins are a contrarian option and my model likes them more than the market does right now. That being said they still have their second game against the Jets upcoming. If you didn't use them against the Jets in their first matchup, they will make a great option in Week 12.
If you don't have any of the top options, the Lions are a fine play — their easiest game remaining is a home matchup against Washington.
I would try to save Baltimore at all costs. Looking at the grid above, they have a ton of future value. They project to have at least a 70% chance to win in six of their remaining eight games.
My Picks
- Saints
- Steelers
- Lions
- Cardinals
- Buccaneers
I want to try to save the Dolphins and Ravens. I am looking to fade the Packers. With 25 mph winds in Green Bay this week, that might shut down the passing game and give Jacksonville a fighting chance to pull off the upset.
If the upset happens, you don't want to go down with the 50% of the field.
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