The AFC South was largely unimpressive a season ago as the Texans managed to take the division with just 10 wins.
While the division still isn't the most exciting on paper, there are a number of intriguing storylines. Will the Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence rebound with Liam Coen at head coach? How good is rookie QB Cam Ward and will the Titans have better luck?
Chris Raybon and Stuckey break down their favorite NFL futures picks and predictions for the AFC South below.
NFL Futures — AFC South Predictions
| NFL Futures Picks |
|---|
| Jaguars Win Total Over/Under |
| Jaguars to Win AFC South |
| Titans Win Total Over/Under |
Jaguars Over 7.5 Wins (-110); Jaguars to Win AFC South (+335)
If you follow me in the Action Network app, I bet their win total over early. If you can get over 7.5 wins at something close to even money, I like that given that I project them to win eight games.
If there's one team that could have a bounce regression-wise, it's the Jags. They went 3-10 in one-score games last year and somehow only forced nine turnovers and recovered two fumbles.
That said, I'll acknowledge their defense was a disaster last year — bottom three despite facing one of the easiest schedules in the NFL.
The coaching was problematic — players were coming out and trashing how things were operating. I don't know what they were doing by trying to run so much man coverage. They went from running man 30% of the time to 60%.
The new DC (Anthony Campanile) is an upgrade. You'll get more zone which fits their defense better. The front seven is decent enough; the questions are all in the secondary.
The corners have to be better. Jourdan Lewis is a pretty good nickel, but Jarrian Jones was good at that spot last year; it is weird that they're going to kick him out. I like the potential he was showing there. So can he take that outside corner spot? Tyson Campbell has to live up to his potential as the No. 1
But then you also have this wild card of Travis Hunter. When is he going to play defense? How often? That can only provide upside. So we'll see.
I mean, he's obviously not going to be a full-time defensive player, but he's going to get snaps there. The defense is not going be great by any stretch, but I think they can improve.
I'm a believer in Liam Coen at head coach considering that everywhere he goes, the offense elevates tremendously. The coaching staff has improved in a weak division.
The Jaguars' schedule is pretty hard early, but it does get easy late with the Titans, Colts and Jets making up five of their last six games.
I think the Jags are in the mix to win over 7.5 games, to make the playoffs, and win the division.
I think the Jaguars to win the AFC South is the play at three to one. I love this bet because you usually don't get this three-to-one (or better, in this case) on a team that is legitimately in the mix.
New head coach Liam Coen is going to do some things outside the box that will increase their chances of winning games. The biggest beneficiary of his arrival should be quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who was failed in the past by his coaching staff and supporting cast.
With the Buccaneers, Coen took Baker Mayfield from league average to over 30% red-zone touchdowns. That's monstrous and should benefit Lawrence, who's been league average in most passing yardage metrics.The Jaguars' situational offense should improve drastically.
This division is wide open and it largely comes down to Lawrence — I think he can step up and play well.
Titans Over 5.5 Wins (-145)
Stuckey:
The Titans were unlucky last season — they went 2-6 in one-possession games, had a turnover margin of -16 and had 34 turnovers.
They were dead last in special teams, which is worth noting because this cost them a couple of games last season. This year, they brought in John Fassel (formerly of the Cowboys), who is an elite special teams coach.
I thought Dennard Wilson did a good job in his first year as defensive coordinator. There's some pieces to work with there — like you have T'Vondre Sweat and Jeffery Simmons up front. Wilson also does some good things with his nickel packages. I actually like Jarvis Brownlee Jr. and Roger McCreary.
The downside is there's just not a lot of depth on this side of the ball, which means staying healthy will be key.
On offense, they're going to be better just because Will Levis won't be under center, constantly giving the ball away. Cam Ward is obviously unproven as a rookie quarterback, but he gives them higher upside and will be working behind an improved offensive line.
I don't necessarily see the Titans winning the division, but I wouldn't hate if anyone wants to take a little flyer on them. I bet their over as it's one of the biggest edges that I show. You can get over 5.5 wins at -145; I project them closer to like seven wins.
This division is tight. A couple injuries, one-possession game luck, turnover luck and the Titans could find themselves in the mix.
Another thing worth mentioning for the Titans is that their schedule is much easier. They see the Browns and Saints toward the end of the season — who knows what those teams will look like considering the quarterbacks they could be trotting out.
The Titans' toughest stretch is at the beginning of the season (Broncos, Rams, Texans, Cardinals), which I don't mind. There are a number of winnable games overall.
