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NFL Week 11 Survivor Pool Analysis, Percentages and Pick: Chargers Offering Best Value

Credit:

Mark Brown/Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Herbert #10 of the Los Angeles Chargers.

Another week down in survivor pools, and another week without a big upset knocking out a large chunk of remaining entrants. The Jaguars put up a good fight and certainly gave those that took the Packers a sweat, but the upset was not meant to be.

You likely still have a big chunk remaining in your pool, so being contrarian still has some value. If you are in a smaller pool and you can easily see which choices your opponents have, you can make educated guesses about who they will take, which should shape your decision.

A reminder that these are good tools, but your decision may have some factors that lead to a different decision.

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Live win probabilities for every game

Here are the projected win percentages for the remainder of the season.

And here are the top options for Week 11 and their projected pick percentage and expected value.

Team Pick % Model EV
Chargers 42.8% 83.9% 1.03
Vikings 28.2% 79.5% 1.03
Steelers 13.7% 74.3% 1.02
Ravens 1.0% 71.9% 1.09
Chiefs 1.7% 69.7% 1.05

I don’t think you need to look further down the list than the five options listed below. If you have used all five of these teams, then I would look to the Saints or Dolphins as the next best options.

The top three options are the Chargers, Vikings, and Steelers. The pick percentages are tipping towards the Chargers, but they are spread out enough that all three are positive expected value picks.

Note that the Ravens and Chiefs are higher expected value because they are being picked so infrequently but both teams have so much future value that I think it would be a waste to use them this week.

This is pretty straightforward in my opinion, and one of the few weeks that taking the most popular pick is the best option.

Here are how I would rank the top five choices this week:

1. Chargers
2. Vikings
3. Steelers
4. Ravens
5. Chiefs

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