Koerner’s Week 13 NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Rankings: Best ATS Bets & Straight-Up Picks

Koerner’s Week 13 NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Rankings: Best ATS Bets & Straight-Up Picks article feature image

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Carolina Panthers mascot

  • Sean Koerner uses his proprietary model and projections to identify his best against-the-spread picks and straight-up bets.
  • You'll find his Week 13 rankings below, as well as a spreadsheet to return personalized rankings based on the odds you input.

Whether you’re playing pick’em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick ’em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.

Let’s quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 13 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.

NFL Week 13 Pick ‘Em Confidence Ratings Methodology

These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.

To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the “true” odds are for every matchup.

In theory, sportsbooks’ lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).

Now let’s start with my straight-up ratings for Week 13 then wrap it up with ATS.

Go To: Full SU Ratings | Custom ATS Ratings

Straight-Up Confidence Ratings

1. Chiefs

Matchup: vs. OAK
Confidence Rating: 83.1%

T-2. Panthers

Matchup: vs. WAS
Confidence Rating: 81.9%

T-2. Eagles

Matchup: @ MIA
Confidence Rating: 81.9%

T-4. Ravens

Matchup: vs. SF
Confidence Rating: 69.9%

T-4. Cowboys

Matchup: vs. BUF
Confidence Rating: 69.9%

6. Packers

Matchup: @ NYG
Confidence Rating: 68.4%

Dan Powers/Appleton Post-Crescent via USA TODAY NETWORK. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams

7. Saints

Matchup: @ ATL
Confidence Rating: 65.2%

8. Patriots

Matchup: @ HOU
Confidence Rating: 62%

9. Seahawks

Matchup: vs. MIN
Confidence Rating: 60.3%

T-10. Rams

Matchup: @ ARI
Confidence Rating: 58.6%

T-10. Chargers

Matchup: @ DEN
Confidence Rating: 58.6%

T-10. Colts

Matchup: vs. TEN
Confidence Rating: 58.6%

T-10. Jets

Matchup: @ CIN
Confidence Rating: 58.6%

T-10. Bears

Matchup: @ DET
Confidence Rating: 58.6%

15. Jaguars

Matchup: vs. TB
Confidence Rating: 56.9%

T-16. Steelers

Matchup: vs. CLE
Confidence Rating: 50%

T-16. Browns

Matchup: @ PIT
Confidence Rating: 50%

18. Buccaneers

Matchup: @ JAX
Confidence Rating: 43.1%

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jameis Winston

T-19. Titans

Matchup: @ IND
Confidence Rating: 41.4%

T-19. Bengals

Matchup: vs. NYJ
Confidence Rating: 41.4%

T-19. Cardinals

Matchup: vs. LAR
Confidence Rating: 41.4%

T-19. Lions

Matchup: vs. CHI
Confidence Rating: 41.4%

T-19. Broncos

Matchup: vs. LAC
Confidence Rating: 41.4%

24. Vikings

Matchup: @ SEA
Confidence Rating: 39.7%

25. Texans

Matchup: vs. NE
Confidence Rating: 38%

26. Falcons

Matchup: vs. NO
Confidence Rating: 34.8%

27. Giants

Matchup: vs. GB
Confidence Rating: 31.6%

T-28. 49ers

Matchup: @ BAL
Confidence Rating: 30.1%

T-28. Bills

Matchup: @ DAL
Confidence Rating: 30.1%

T-30. Redskins

Matchup: @ CAR
Confidence Rating: 18.1%

Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dwayne Haskins

T-30. Dolphins

Matchup: vs. PHI
Confidence Rating: 18.1%

32. Raiders

Matchup: @ KC
Confidence Rating: 16.9%

Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings

Against the Spread Confidence Ratings

I’ve outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Wednesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.

1. Falcons

Spread: 7
Opponent: vs. NO

2. Bengals

Spread: 3.5
Opponent: vs. NYJ

3. Steelers

Spread: 2.5
Opponent: vs. CLE

4. Giants

Spread: 6.5
Opponent: vs. GB

5. Jaguars

Spread: 1.5
Opponent: vs. TB

6. Lions

Spread: 4
Opponent: vs. CHI

T-7. Cardinals

Spread: 3
Opponent: vs. LAR

T-7. Broncos

Spread: 3
Opponent: vs. LAC

T-7. Bills

Spread: 6.5
Opponent: @ DAL

10. Chiefs

Spread: -10
Opponent: vs. OAK

T-11. Panthers

Spread: -10
Opponent: vs. WAS

T-11. Eagles

Spread: -10
Opponent: @ MIA

nfl week 12 betting odds-spreads-sharps vegas-darren rovell
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Eagles mascot

T-11. Texans

Spread: 3.5
Opponent: vs. NE

T-11. 49ers

Spread: 6
Opponent: @ BAL

T-15. Seahawks

Spread: -3
Opponent: vs. MIN

T-15. Colts

Spread: -2.5
Opponent: vs. TEN

T-15. Titans

Spread: 2.5
Opponent: @ IND

T-15. Vikings

Spread: 3
Opponent: @ SEA

T-19. Ravens

Spread: -6
Opponent: vs. SF

T-19. Patriots

Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ HOU

T-19. Redskins

Spread: 10
Opponent: @ CAR

T-19. Dolphins

Spread: 10
Opponent: vs. PHI

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Fan

23. Raiders

Spread: 10
Opponent: @ KC

T-24. Cowboys

Spread: -6.5
Opponent: vs. BUF

T-24. Rams

Spread: -3
Opponent: @ ARI

26. Chargers

Spread: -3
Opponent: @ DEN

27. Bears

Spread: -4
Opponent: @ DET

28. Buccaneers

Spread: -1.5
Opponent: @ JAX

29. Packers

Spread: -6.5
Opponent: @ NYG

30. Browns

Spread: -2.5
Opponent: @ PIT

31. Jets

Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ CIN

32. Saints

Spread: -7
Opponent: @ ATL

Custom Confidence Ratings

Your league might be using different odds, in which case, you’ll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.

Note that you’ll want to make sure to add the “-” in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column L.

Here’s an example of what the sheet looks like:

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