I mentioned this on the Fantasy Flex projections pod that I’d take this if it ever hit 170+, so I wanted to lock it in before it potentially drops by tomorrow considering this is a pretty obvious angle. Fields should be more efficient against a pass-funnel Panthers defense, but that should also allow the Jets to keep this close and lean on the run. He had a brutal matchup last week against Denver but was coming off the easiest two-game stretch possible (Miami/Dallas), so the market may be overrating his baseline. Carolina should lean heavily on the run with Rico and Hubbard, which will help limit the Jets’ time of possession. The Jets have trailed at the 4th-highest rate this season, but are projected to play with a lead at about a +20% higher rate here given that it’s essentially a pick’em. That should make them more run-heavy than usual. On top of that, Fields will be without his clear top target in Garrett Wilson. I expect an extremely conservative approach from New York. If they happen to fall behind and the game tilts pass-heavy, there’s even a chance Tyrod replaces Fields, which lowers his floor further.

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker. If you play on Sleeper you can get u174.5 at plus-odds