Joe Flacco over 38.5 Pass Att (-110 at BetMGM, HardRock, -118 at DK) This is a strong wind game, but I'm still showing value on Joe Flacco to clear 38.5 pass attempts for a handful of reasons. First, these two teams are Nos. 31 and 32 in time of possession, so there will simply be more overall play volume, and I'm projecting about an 8% increase in total play volume over each team's baseline. For Cincy's baseline, they have run 64.25 plays per game with Flacco in at QB in four games with the average in-game scoring margin in those four games of -2.7 points, which tracks pretty closely with a 5.5-point underdog as they are this weekend (they averaged to a 4.25-point underdog in those four games). Thus, an eight percent increase is around 69.5 plays expected, although i'll dock a few for it being a strong wind game, putting this game on the ground more. Flacco has thrown a pass attempt on 67.3% of total plays, so using that number as a similar underdog and docking it a full 4% for a super strong wind game on 66.5 total plays, and accounting for 2.5 sacks projected I'd get 39.5 passing attempts. But these are all worst case scenarios. I strictly docked him for 20+ mph wind games, but that includes the 30+ mph sustained wind games. Instead, if I limit the sustained winds between 18-23 mph, the pass rate only drops by about 1.3 attempts, or just under 2% instead of 4%, which would also increase the total plays back up to closer to 68 projected. Just making those small changes gets me to 42 projected pass attempts, and I'm still undercounting it because I'm not accounting for the fact that Flacco projects to be a bigger dog with a bigger average defecit than the four games he's played already as a Bengal. That leaves us plenty of wiggle room to stay over 38.5 pass attempts, and there's other factors in play here that help like projected explosiveness for the Steelers and their above average pace that work in the favor of the Bengals running more plays. Obviously if the Bengals get out to a lead this won't hit, but schedule-adjusted Expected Scores lean toward a Steelers cover. Even if the Steelers fall behind there's a case here because they'll go more no huddle and they throw at one of the highest rates while trailing, which would give the ball back to Cincy quicker (hopefully by them taking the lead back after a touchdown). I'd play this over 39.5 as well. tl;dr -- market is overreacting to wind