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NFL Week 8 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

NFL Week 8 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer article feature image

The Falcons have been dethroned as the lone undefeated team against the spread in Week 7, but now, the Eagles have their chance to go to 7-0 straight up this week vs. the Steelers. Let’s look at the slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know.

Welcome to Week 8 of the Action Network’s NFL betting primer.

1. At The Brink

Aaron Rodgers has made 234 regular-season and playoff starts in his NFL career, and Sunday could be the first time he’s a double-digit underdog.

Streak Over…

His 234 consecutive starts without being a double-digit underdog is the longest streak from the start of a quarterback’s career in NFL history (via Elias Sports Bureau).

Aaron Rodgers’ Largest Spread as Underdog:

+10.5: at Bills (2022)
+8.5: at Seahawks (L, 28-22; 2015)
+8: at 49ers (L, 37-20; 2020)
+7.5: at Rams (L, 29-27; 2018)

2. Dog Day Afternoon

So far in the 2022 season, underdogs have been cashing at a historic rate.

Underdogs are 43-64-1 straight up, meaning a $100 bettor would be up +$1,465, and they’re 62-45-1 against the spread. The biggest advantage has been with road underdogs and bigger-sized dogs:

  • Road underdogs this season: 36-26 ATS
  • Underdogs of over a FG (3 pts) this season: 44-22 ATS

It’s also the best start for underdogs of over a FG against the spread through seven games in the last 20 years.

3. A Streak for the Ages

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ last four games:

  • +10.5 at Eagles
  • +7 at Dolphins
  • +10 vs. Buccaneers
  • +14 at Bills

The Steelers have been TD+ underdogs in four straight games — that hasn’t been done in Pittsburgh in over 40 years. In 1991, they were dogs of 6+ in four straight games.

4. Midseason Superlatives

Entering Week 8, it’s time to look at the best and worst performing teams this season.

Best ATS: ATL 6-1, NYG 6-1
Worst ATS: 2-5 (GB, CAR, NO, JAX, DEN, TB)

Best SU: NYG: 6-1 (+$952), NYJ: 5-2 (+$680)
Worst SU: NO: 2-5 (-$413), DET: 1-5 (-$405)

Best Over teams: NO 5-2, CLE 5-2
Best Under teams: TB 6-1, IND 6-1, DEN 6-1

2H Unders: DEN 7-0, CIN 6-0-1
2H Overs: NO 6-0-1

1H ATS: PHI 6-0, SEA 6-1 | IND 0-7, CHI 1-6, ARI 1-6
2H ATS: CIN 7-0, IND NYG 6-1 | GB 0-7; TENN 0-6

5. Nightmare for Chalk

The Giants enter Week 8 undefeated straight up as underdogs this season, going a perfect 5-0 SU.

New York became the first team since the 1999 Lions and 2004 Jaguars to win five games as underdogs in the first seven games of the season.

If New York wins this week, they would join that 1999 Lions team, who won 6 games SU as underdogs in their first 8 games that season.

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, Oct. 30, 9 a.m. ET.

NFL Week 8


Click on a topic to skip ahead
Thursday Night Football
Ravens 27, Buccaneers 22
Market Movers
Biggest Week 8 Line Moves
Sharp Report
How the Pros Are Betting Week 8
The Big Picture
Jets pass Pats, 2H trends, Stat Sheet
Rapid Fire
Week 8 Game-by-Game Betting Notes
Action Audio
Best NFL Podcasts for Week 8
What’s Next?
Early Week 9 Betting Trends

Thursday Night Football

Thursday, Oct. 27
8:20 p.m. ET
NBC
Ravens Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+1.5 46.5 +105
Buccaneers Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-1.5 46.5 -125
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Low, Low, Low…

The under is now 16-5 (76%) in the last 21 games on Thursday Night Football.

Unders in night games: 14-8 (Games at night since 2019: 108-77-3 to under)

Thursday Night Football Unders: 22-13 (63%) since 2020 (5-2 this season)

Night Sweats

Tom Brady is 7-8 SU and 2-13 ATS in his last 15 night games, failing to cover the spread by 8.4 PPG.

Brady The Home Dog

Tom Brady career as an underdog: 36-23 SU, 40-17-2 ATS

When Brady is an underdog in primetime since 2010, he is 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS.

In his NFL career, Brady has only been a home underdog eleven times. He is 8-3 SU and 10-1 ATS, including 3-0 ATS with the Bucs (2-1 SU) and 5-0 ATS overall in the last decade (4-1 SU).

Brady when failing to cover by 14+ pts in previous game: 22-3 ATS in regular season

Lack of Offense: Bucs team total overs are 1-6 this season.

Five For Fighting: Tom Brady and the Bucs have lost five consecutive games ATS, the first time that has happened to Brady since the 2007-08 season.

Tom Brady Largest Single Season ATS Losing Streak

6 – 2007-08
5 – 2022
5 – 2002

All About Lamar…

  • vs. the NFC: 12-1 SU, 5-8 ATS
  • In night games: 10-6 SU, 8-8 ATS
  • On Thursday Night Football: 1-1 SU/ATS (at MIA, vs. NYJ)
  • As a favorite: 36-13 SU, 22-27 ATS
  • As a underdog: 6-5 SU, 9-2 ATS
  • At home: 13-18 ATS
  • On road: 18-11 ATS
  • On short rest: 9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS

The Last Frame: The Ravens are 0-7 on the 4th quarter spread this season.

First Half Success:

  • Lamar Jackson against the first half spread: 37-21-2 ATS (63.8%)
  • Lamar is the 2nd-best QB against the first half spread over the last 20 years, behind just Joe Flacco.

On the road against the first half spread, Lamar is 20-8-1 ATS.


» Return to the table of contents «


Market Movers

For more information on betting percentages, line moves and ticket counts, access our Action Network odds dashboard.

Biggest NFL Week 8 Public Sides
(The most popular spread bets for Week 8)

(-1.5)
75% of bets at Saints
(-1)
69% of bets at Rams
(+3)
69% of bets at Colts

Most Bet Games by Ticket Count in Week 8
(The most popular bet games for Week 8, excluding Thursday Night Football)

(-3.5)
80,000 betting tickets
(+4)
78,000 betting tickets
(+2.5)
69,000 betting tickets

Biggest Line Moves in Week 8

Spread Movers (lines compared to lookahead lines):

(+7 to -2.5)
9.5-pt move vs. Broncos
(-3.5 to -10.5)
7-pt move vs. Steelers
(-4 to -10.5)
6.5-pt move vs. Packers

» Return to the table of contents «


The Sharp Report

PRO Report

Sharp bet
Cowboys -9.5 | Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Bet %
CHI: 56% of Bets
Handle %
DAL: 66% of Handle

If you want to make betting decisions for yourself but don’t have the time to collect all the data, check out our NFL PRO Report. This analysis highlights five key betting signals: big money, sharp action, expert projections, expert picks and historical betting systems.


Ravens at Buccaneers Projections

Moneyline Edge
BAL ML (-113) BAL (+110) +5.4% (B Grade)

Our model’s odds are compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a B Grade 3.5% edge before considering a bet based solely on projections.


PRO Systems

Bet Against Public After Bad Game: Don’t bet based off what you just saw. This is an opportunity to go against the grain.
Week 8 picks -> PRO Access


PRO Props

Top Props for Week 8: Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
Bet: Under 30.5 receiving yards (-110)

Prop projections and grades for every NFL player in the Action App.

How to use the Action Network’s PRO Report to make your betting decisions easier.


» Return to the table of contents «


The Big Picture

The Stat Sheet: Every week we will update 1st quarter, 1st half, full game and other trends for all 32 teams to help you easily navigate each team’s strengths and weaknesses.

Super Bowl Movers: Entering Week 8, it’s time to look at the surging Seahawks and the Jets’ AFC East odds.

SB: 500-1 in Week 4 | Now 100-1


AFC East: 20-1 | Patriots: 33-1


For the first time since Week 12 of the 2010 season, the Jets have shorter odds to win the AFC East than the New England Patriots (now listed at +3300).

It's been a while since the Jets were favored over the Patriots 😳

(via/ @SOHistory) pic.twitter.com/VGD77AKDV4

— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) October 25, 2022


Super Bowl Futures: Let’s look into Super Bowl futures at BetMGM and how they have moved since the beginning of the season.


2022 Season Betting Update
1.
Touchdowns Are Down!
TDs Through 7 Games Last 3 Seasons:
2022: 517
2021: 611
2020: 660
2.
Divisional Unders
Unders are 25-10 in NFL division games this season.
Best start for divisional unders in the last 20 years.
Week 8 matches: TEN/HOU, SF/LAR, CAR/ATL, NE/NYJ, CIN/CLE
3.
The Favorites
Only two NFL teams have been listed as a favorite in each of their games this season: the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles.
4.
Big Favorites
Favorites of 7 pts or more: 15-8-1 SU, 8-16 ATS
+The least profitable start for TD favorites through 7 games in the past 20 years.
+ 7+ Favorites: 12-11 (52%) in a 6-pt teaser (71% previous 5 seasons).
5.
The Public
(Public = 51% of tickets or more)
51%+: 43-61-1 ATS
60%+: 19-29 ATS
66%+: 9-16 ATS
+ The worst start through 7 games for the public in the last 20 years.

For more content on NFL betting stats and notes check out our recap page on Action Network.


Where Did All The Scoring Go?

Unders continue to hit across the NFL

In 2022, unders are now 64-44 (59.3%), the best start for unders since 1994 (through seven games).

Unders have finished .500 or better each and every week this season:

  • Week 1: 11-5
  • Week 2: 11-5
  • Week 3: 8-8
  • Week 4: 8-8
  • Week 5: 9-7
  • Week 6: 10-4
  • Week 7: 7-7

Here are your highest under hit percentages through six games in the Wild Card era.

Highest Pct Games Under – Through 7 games since 1990

1991: 60-36-1 (62.5%)
1994: 57-38-3 (60%)
2022: 64-44 (59.3%)


We’ve Hit The Middle Point…

This week starts some teams eighth game of the season, which is just about the middle of the year into the second half. Let’s dive into a few ways to profit later in the season (Game 8 or later):


+ Avoid the bad teams now
. Teams with a win percentage of 40% or less facing a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher in Game 8 or later are just 159-187-11 ATS in the last decade.

Week 8 match: Bears & Steelers

+ Time to bet struggling offensive teams. In Game 8 or later, teams to score 14 pts or less in consecutive games are 108-68-5 against the first half spread in the last decade.

+ Ride or fade the surprise team? Teams to win and cover at least three consecutive games who didn’t make the playoffs the previous year are 172-147-8 ATS (53.9%) last 20 years. In games 1-7, they are 45-46-1 ATS. In games 8-18, they are 127-101-7 ATS. In November specifically, these teams are 70-38-3 ATS.

Week 8 match: Giants and Jets

+ With a double-digit home favorite, in a divisional game, look under late in the season. In a team’s first seven games, the under in games with a double-digit home favorite are just 27-33-1. In games 8-18, the under in games with a double-digit home favorite are 89-60-5 (59.7%).



» Return to the table of contents «


Rapid Fire

Broncos vs. Jaguars

London Trends…

+ Favorites of over a FG overseas are 16-3 SU, 12-7 ATS.
+ In 35 international games, favorites are 27-8-1 SU, 23-13 ATS.
+ At Wembley Stadium, favorites are 17-5-1 SU, 14-9 ATS
+ Both international games in 2022 have gone over the total.
+ The under has hit in the last three Jaguars games in London.

Tough Time Ahead? The Broncos are averaging 14.3 PPG heading overseas. Struggling offenses don’t perform well in the international series. Teams scoring 17 PPG or less are 3-12 ATS overseas, failing to cover by 6.5 PPG.

What a Jaguars Win Would Mean…

  • Trevor Lawrence: 2-0 SU/ATS overseas
  • Trevor Lawrence: 4-19 SU, 6-17 ATS in USA

Entering Week 8, Trevor Lawrence is 5-19 SU and 7-17 ATS in his career, the least profitable QB ATS since he was drafted in 2021.

Favorites! Again! The Jaguars are now 0-5 straight up as favorites since 2020, failing to cover the spread by 16.8 PPG. Since 2020, all other NFL teams have a cover as a favorite.

+ The Jaguars are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games.
+ Trevor Lawrence 1H ATS: 9-15 ATS (0-4 as a favorite)

All The Under: The Broncos are 6-1 to the under this year, going under by 12.6 PPG, largest margin to the under in the NFL.

For Denver, the second half under is also 7-0 in their games this season.

Falling Behind: Twelve teams had double-digit win totals entering the season. The Broncos are the only team with two wins or less.

New York Impact: The Broncos lost to the Jets in Week 7. The last fourteen teams to lose to New York are 2-12 ATS in their next game dating back to 2019.

+1.5
40.5
-1.5

Bears at Cowboys

Under at Jerry World: The last six Cowboys home games have gone under the total.

Just Unfair: The Bears are at a distinct disadvantage this week. Teams who play back-to-back road games with the second game on short rest on a Sunday are 15-26 SU and 17-23-1 ATS in the last 20 years.

Bad Start: The Bears are 1-6 against the first half spread this season.

Short Rest: Justin Fields has played one game on short rest: TNF vs. the Commanders this season (12-7 loss).

+ Fields is 6-11 ATS as a starting QB, including 5-10 ATS as an underdog.

Off Foxboro: The Bears just beat the Patriots in New England. Teams coming off a game vs. the Patriots, playing on short rest, are 14-21 SU, the least profitable previous opponent on the moneyline. When that team plays on the road in their next game? 3-12 SU.

Can They Repeat? The Bears are 4-25 on the moneyline as above a FG underdog since 2019 (3-19 SU as a TD dog or bigger since 2016).

Cover Kings: Since the start of last season, the Cowboys (18-7 ATS) are the most profitable team against the spread.

All About The Opponent…

Dak Prescott is 49-40-2 ATS (55.1%) in his career.

  • 22-8-2 ATS (73.3%) vs. opponents below .500 SU
    A $100 bettor would be up +$1,293 – second to Brady since 2005 ($3,109)
  • 14-23 ATS (37.8%) vs. opponents above .500 SU
    A $100 bettor would be down $975 – 108th of 110 QBs since he was drafted in 2016.

High Regard. Dak Prescott when he listed above a TD favorite: 8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS

+10
42.5
-10

» Return to the table of contents «


Raiders at Saints

Watch The Spread…

+ Saints on extended rest: 13-4 SU, 7-10 ATS since 2017
+ Saints home on extended rest: 25-12 SU, 17-20 ATS last 20 years.
+ Saints second half overs are 6-0-1 this season.

Can Vegas Keep It Going? Raiders current streaks: 3 straight covers, 4 straight overs.

Points, Points, Points: The Saints and Raiders have both gone over the total in 4 straight games entering this contest. Just the 3rd time that’s happened in the last decade:

+ 2018 – TB/ATL, 57.5 (34-29; Over)
+ 2016 – MIA/BUF, 44.5 (34-31; Over)
+ 2014 – DEN/NE, 52.5 (43-21; Over)

Saints games are going over the total by 10.6 PPG, the highest margin in the NFL.

The Good & Bad of Derek Carr…

+ Carr is 17-26-1 ATS on the road since 2017, the 2nd-least profitable road QB ATS in that span (109 of 110 QBs).
+ Carr is 13-7-1 ATS facing a team coming off extended rest (5th of 112 QBs since he was drafted).

All A Fantasy…

Josh Jacobs is the first player to score 30-plus PPR fantasy points in three consecutive games since Davante Adams in Weeks 7-9 of 2020, and the first running back to do it since Todd Gurley in Weeks 5-8 of 2018. (via Tristan H. Cockcroft)

-1.5
49.5
+1.5

Panthers at Falcons

Coming off Brady: Teams are 21-18 SU and 24-14-1 ATS after facing the Bucs since Tom Brady arrived in 2020. The Panthers were 2-1 SU/ATS, within one score in all three games.

Can Carolina Hang? Teams coming off an upset as a double-digit underdog are just 17-49 SU and 27-36-3 ATS when listed as an underdog in their next game.

+ Teams coming off an upset as a double-digit underdog are just 2-18 SU, 8-11-1 ATS when listed as an underdog vs. a divisional opponent in their next game.

They Are Still Carolina: The Panthers are 1-28 SU and 5-24 ATS when their opponent scores 17 pts or more since 2020.

+ Since Oct. 1, 2021, the Panthers are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games.
+ Panthers have lost six consecutive games ATS on the road.
+ Panthers last 14 games with backup QB since 2019: 3-11 SU, 4-10 ATS

Getting There: The Falcons are 1.5 wins away from eclipsing their preseason win total of 4.5.

Not Covering The Number: Marcus Mariota is 9-4 SU but just 3-10 ATS as a favorite of over a FG.

Up or Down? The Falcons started 6-0 ATS. Time to see how they finish…

6-0 ATS teams last decade perform after hot start…

2022 Falcons: 6-0 ATS -> 0-1 ATS
2021 Cowboys: 6-0 ATS -> 7-5 ATS
2018 Chiefs: 6-0 ATS -> 4-7-1 ATS

+4
41.5
-4

Steelers at Eagles

Hard To Beat Philly…

+ Eagles at home off a bye last 20 years: 12-3 SU, 7-7-1 ATS.
+ Eagles are 3-0 ATS at home this year (10-4-1 ATS last 15 home games).
+ Eagles are 6-0 against the first half spread this season.

Big Prep Advantage. Eagles are undefeated and coming off a bye week.

Undefeated teams straight up on a bye are 27-14 SU and 26-15 ATS over the last 20 years. When those teams are at home, they are 15-1 SU and 14-2 ATS.

+ No team has been off a bye while undefeated SU this late since the Broncos, Bengals & Packers back in 2015.

Not The Right Start. Kenny Pickett is the +400 favorite to lead the NFL in interceptions this season. He has 7, two behind Matt Ryan. Pickett opened the season at +5000 to lead the NFL in INT.

Points in Philly. The over is 7-1 in the last 8 Eagles home games.

Pennsylvania Battle. The Eagles and Steelers have met 13 times since the merger in 1970. This week will be the biggest spread in the series:

Biggest spreads:

PHI -10.5, 2022
PIT -8, 1974
PIT -7.5, 2020

The Tomlin Rundown…

+ Mike Tomlin: 0-2 SU/ATS on the road in the Eagles, losing by a combined score of 49-9.
+ Tomlin career as an underdog: 40-42 SU and 50-28-4 ATS
+ Tomlin is 20-13 SU and 24-9 ATS as an underdog vs. teams above .500 SU and ATS.
+ Tomlin is 6-0-1 SU/ATS in his last 7 games vs. opponents off a bye.

He Always Finds A Way…

Mike Tomlin is 39-15-1 ATS (72.2%) as an underdog from Week 5 forward in the regular season.

+ When the game is in Eastern Time in this spot, Tomlin is 33-9-1 ATS (79%).

Could Get History: Tomlin’s Steelers have only closed at +11 or higher twice in his career:

+14, 2022 at BUF (L 38-3)
+11.5, 2021 at KC (L 42-21)

+10.5
42.5
-10.5

» Return to the table of contents «


Dolphins at Lions

Time To Buy In? Lions home overs have been hot lately…

+ Won four straight (3-0 in 2022)
+ 19-8 since 2019, 36-23 since 2015 — best home team to the over in that span.
+ When the total is 45+ since 2019, Lions home overs are 16-6.

History On The Other Side: The total for Dolphins/Lions should close at 50 or above this week. This season, the under is 9-4 in the 13 games with a total of 50 or more (43-33, 57%, since start of last season).

Struggling Offense: The Lions have scored six total points combined in their last two games. Teams to score seven points or less in consecutive games are 23-12-1 against the first half spread in their next game since 2010.

Tough for Goff. Goff has been middle of the pack as a favorite but straight up as an underdog has been a problem.

  • Favorite: 38-17 SU, 28-25-2 ATS
  • Underdog: 10-28-1 SU, 20-19 ATS

Of 120 QBs since 2016, Goff is ranked 116th in ML profit as an underdog.

Can’t Cross Over. Jared Goff is 1-7-1 SU and 3-6 ATS vs. the AFC since 2020.

Not So Pretty For Tua Either…

+ Tua Tagovailoa vs. teams allowing 28+ PPG: 1-5 ATS
+ Tua vs. teams with 33% or less win pct: 3-6 ATS

-4
51.5
+4

Cardinals at Vikings

Kyler’s Korner…

+ Kyler Murray as an underdog: 14-16-1 SU, 19-10-2 ATS (second-best in NFL since 2019, behind just Jimmy Garoppolo)
+ Kyler off a SU win: 14-11 SU, 14-10-1 ATS
+ Kyler doesn’t love long rest (eight days or more): 3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS
+ Kyler by time zone: PST/MST: 15-20-2 ATS | EST/CST: 13-4 ATS
+ Kyler is 25-28-1 against the second half spread — 19-11-1 as an underdog, 6-17 as a favorite.

One of the Worst: The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in the first half this season

Hold The Door: The Cardinals have held 20 of the last 23 opposing starting quarterbacks under their passing yards total.

Watch The Under…

+ Kyler Murray is 32-22 to the under in his career (third-best of 95 QBs to the under since 2019).
+ The under is 20-7 in Kyler Murray road starts, going under by 3.2 PPG (under in last six road games).
+ Under is 16-3 in Kyler Murray’s last 19 road starts since 2020.

Tough Spot for Kirk…

+ Kirk Cousins is 2-5 ATS off a bye in his career, including 9-16 SU and 7-18 ATS on extended rest (eight days or more). In the last 20 years, Cousins’ 7-18 ATS mark is the third-least profitable of 208 QBs (Rivers and Romo).

+ Since 2010, the Vikings are 3-10 ATS off a bye week, the least profitable team in the NFL.

+3.5
48.5
-3.5

Patriots at Jets

Something New: Bill Belichick has faced the Jets 46 times as a head coach. He is 35-11 SU and 25-19-2 ATS.

Here are his shortest spreads against the Jets and his straight up result:

+6.5: 2000, L in NY (covered)
+3: 2001, W in NY
+2.5: 2011, W in NY
+1.5: 2001, L vs. NY (no cover)
+1: 2002, W in NY
PK: 2004, W in NY
-1: 2008, W in NY
-2.5: 2015, L in NY

Domination. Patriots beaten the Jets 12 times in a row dating back to 2015 (8-4 ATS). Jets last win: Dec. 27, 2015, Ryan Fitzpatrick against Tom Brady.

Life Without Tom: Bill Belichick career with Patriots against the spread:

  • With Tom Brady: 187-127-10 ATS
  • W/O Tom Brady: 39-38-1 ATS

No Disadvantage: Belichick is 33-10 SU and 28-15-1 ATS on short rest over the last 20 years.

Just Unreal: Belichick is 36-11 SU and 39-7-1 ATS after a loss as either an underdog or under a TD favorite last 20 years in the regular season.

Going Back East: The Jets are coming back east after playing in Mountain Time Zone. Teams who played on road in Mountain or Pacific and then play in Eastern are 80-47-1 (63%) against the first half spread since 2017.

Eleven Away. It’s been 11 years since the Jets have made the playoffs, the longest drought in the NFL. They were +650 to make the playoffs entering the season, +135 now.

Can They Stay Afloat? The Jets were the second team in the Super Bowl era to have a winning record through six games despite being an underdog in all six of those games (2001 Cleveland).

The Browns ended up 3-7 SU, 3-6-1 ATS after the hot start.

-2.5
40
+2.5

» Return to the table of contents «


Titans at Texans

Division Battle. Mike Vrabel is 18-8 SU, 15-11 ATS vs. AFC South, but just 3-5 ATS without Ryan Tannehill in that spot.

Overall, Vrabel is 29-24-1 ATS with Tannehill as a starter and 10-12 ATS without him.

Same Story: Week 8 is Davis Mills’ 18th career start, up to this point, all 17 starts have been as an underdog. If the Texans close as favorites, it will be Mills’ first such start of his career.

Mills has never closed below a 3.5-point underdog, and 14 of 17 starts have come as a TD underdog or more. Mills is 3-13-1 SU career.

The Texans have been favored once since December of 2020.

Where’s The Speech? The Titans are 0-6 against the second half spread this season.

Vegas Vacation: Teams after facing the Raiders in Vegas are 6-15 ATS in their next game. These teams have failed to cover the spread in six consecutive games.

+ Since the Raiders moved to Vegas in 2020, they are the least profitable prior city of all 32 NFL teams.

+1
39
-1

Giants at Seahawks

Tough Road: The Giants played on road in Eastern time last week and continue their road trip west to face the Seahawks. Teams to go from Eastern to Pacific on the road are just 14-15 SU but 9-19-1 ATS since 2019.

How To Bet The Jones…

+ Daniel Jones career Road/Neutral: 15-6 ATS (No. 2 of 87 QBs since 2019, behind just Kyler) — Jones has one start in Pacific time in his career: 2020 at LAR, +13.5 (L 17-9).

+ How the Under has performed in Daniel Jones starts: 17-6 at home | 10-10-1 on road.

Dogs Again: The Giants are 6-1 SU and ATS and are listed as underdogs this week.

+ Teams winning 80%+ of their games entering their eighth game are 10-2 SU, 11-1 ATS when listed as the underdog.
+ Teams winning & covering 80%+ of their games and listed as an underdog in their eighth game or later are 8-4-1 ATS, including 5-1-1 ATS since 2012.

New Territory…

+ Geno Smith: 17-10-2 ATS as underdog | 6-6 ATS as favorite
+ Geno has played three teams with 80%+ win pct in his career, he is 3-0 ATS.
+ Seahawks are 6-1 against the first half spread this season.
+ Kenneth Walker is now (+200) favorite to win Offensive ROY.

Climbing. The Giants opened at 150-1 odds to win the Super Bowl. They are now down to 40-1.

+3
44.5
-3

Commanders at Colts

Tough Start: The Colts are now 0-7 against the first half spread this season and have lost nine straight 1H ATS dating back to last year.

Backup Time: Washington turns to Taylor Heinicke again this week with Carson Wentz still hurt. Washington backup QBs are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games since 2019.

Why the Colts are going away from Matt Ryan…

+ Matt Ryan is 28-42-1 ATS over the last five seasons. A $100 bettor would be down $1,542 — least profitable QB in the NFL.

+ Matt Ryan is 53-36 to the under since 2017, by far the most profitable QB to the under in that span.

+ Since 2014, Matt Ryan is 16-31 ATS as a home favorite, the least profitable QB in the NFL (101 of 101 QBs).

+2.5
39.5
-2.5

» Return to the table of contents «


49ers at Rams

It’s Still Jimmy G…

+ Jimmy Garoppolo excels against teams .500 or better: 21-11 SU/ATS. Since his first start in 2017, he’s the second-most profitable QB vs. .500 or better opponents (first is Burrow).

+ The 49ers are 37-19 straight up and 31-24-1 against the spread with Jimmy Garoppolo as QB. With all other QBs in that span? They are 9-29 SU and 16-22 ATS.

+ Jimmy G vs. the Rams: 7-1 SU/ATS (7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS in regular season).

The Mahomes Impact. Since Patrick Mahomes’ rookie year in 2017, teams after facing the Chiefs are 38-49-1 ATS in their next game.

How To Bet Kyle Shanahan…

+ 49ers are 7-7 SU and 4-9-1 ATS as a favorite vs. the NFC West under Kyle Shanahan.
+ Shanahan vs. McVay: 8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS career
+ FWIW… Shanahan vs. Kliff & Pete: 6-10-1 ATS
+ 49ers are 1-30 SU when trailing by 3+ pts entering the fourth quarter under Kyle Shanahan.
+ Kyle Shanahan in his career as head coach (since 2017):

  • Favorite: 19-27-1 ATS (fourth-worst)
  • Underdog: 28-19 ATS (fifth-best)

Let’s Look at Sean McVay…

+ Sean McVay has faced a divisional opponent off a bye once: 2020 vs. Seahawks, winning 23-16 as 3-point favorites.

+ McVay and Stafford are 0-2 ATS off a bye week as a duo (including playoffs).

-1
41.5
+1

Packers at Bills

Rest for the Best: Favorites of a TD or more in primetime coming off a bye week are 16-3 SU and 10-7-2 ATS in the regular season over the last 20 years.

Cover Machine…

+ Josh Allen primetime: 10-3 SU/ATS, covering by 9.6 PPG
+ Allen is 41-27 ATS since first start in 2018, most profitable QB in the NFL (1 of 106 QBs).
+ Allen is 4-0 SU, 2-1-1 ATS off a bye week.

Oh Boy: The Packers are 0-7 against the second half spread this season.

The Rodgers “Did You Know?”…

+ Aaron Rodgers vs. Josh Allen: 2018 at Packers, GB -8.5, GB 22-0
+ Rodgers in primetime: 44-25 SU, 40-27-2 ATS
+ Rodgers is 12-1 SU, 11-2 ATS at night since 2020.
+ Since 2017, Rodgers is 7-9 SU, 4-12 ATS in EST (102nd of 106 QBs).
+ Rodgers has won his last four games at night SU as an underdog.
+ Rodgers has been an underdog of six points or more in primetime twice:

  • 2016, +7 at ARI (L 26-20)
  • 2021, +6.5 at ARI (W 24-21)

Lambeau Issues…

+ Packers: 3-4 SU, worst start since 2006. First three-game skid since 2018.

+ Packers are 2-5 ATS through seven games, their worst ATS start to a season since 2000, when they started 1-6 ATS.

+ The Packers are 2-5 ATS this season, failing to cover the spread by 7.8 PPG, tied for the worst margin in the NFL (Rams).

+ Packers opened season -450 to make playoffs, they are +130 now.

+10.5
47
-10.5

Bengals at Browns

Best of the Best: Joe Burrow is 19-17-1 SU and 24-13 ATS in his NFL career. A $100 bettor would be up $897 backing Burrow, the most profitable QB ATS since 2020.

Primetime Burrow: Joe Burrow has played four games at night. He is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS, including 0-2 SU in primetime on the road.

Week 8 will be Burrow’s first career start on Monday Night Football.

Struggling with the Pound: In Burrow’s career, he is 0-3 SU and 2-1 ATS vs. the Browns — his most SU losses without a win vs. any opponent.

Hot in Cincinnati: The Bengals are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games, including covering five consecutive games. Not to mention, Burrow is 12-2 ATS in his last 14 starts.

The Bengals are 7-0 against the second half spread this season, including the second half under going 6-0-1 in Cincinnati’s seven games.

Brissett’s Struggles…

+ Brissett on MNF: 0-2 SU/ATS, failing to cover the spread by 13 PPG
+ Brissett has played on extended rest as a dog five times: 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS

Oh Kevin…

The Browns are 7-7 SU and 3-11 ATS vs. the AFC North under Kevin Stefanski.

+ In the last 20 years, Stefanski is the fourth-least profitable coach vs. his own division (138th of 141 coaches).
+ Browns are 1-4 ATS vs. AFC North in primetime under Stefanski.
+ Browns are 0-2 SU/ATS as underdog in primetime under Stefanski.

-3
45
+3

Action Audio

  • The Favorites Podcast: A juicy NFL betting slate looms large for gamblers this week, with a few teams jumping out immediately to Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. Together they go through every game from Thursday to Monday night, highlighting a few spots too good to pass up, including the Battle of Ohio in prime time.  Plus we get Foxhole, Executive Decision and Simon Says picks for Week 8, and so much more.

  • The Action Network Podcast: Host Chris Raybon enjoyed a sterling Week 7 on the podcast, sweeping his picks and surging ahead of co-host Stuckey in their season-long contest. But the Action Network duo leave that in the past as they focus on their efforts on a Week 8 slate full of juicy spots. Together they build their usual Sunday Six Pack of picks, along with totals, teasers, moneyline dogs and more. Is now the time to bet on Kliff Kingsbury?

For more Action Network podcasts, check out our page with a portfolio of ten different options across eight different sports.


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What’s Next?

Eagles at Texans

+ Hurts: 

Night game: 4-1 ATS

TNF: 0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS vs. TB

+ Hurts is 3-1 ATS, covering by 4.6 PPG on short rest.

+ Mills has played one game on short rest. Also his only night game and only game on TNF: 0-1 SU/ATS (L, 24-9 vs. CAR)

+ Thursday Night Football Unders:

+ 22-14 since 2020 (5-3 this season)

+ The under is now 16-6 in the last 22 games on Thursday Night Football.

Seahawks at Cardinals

+ Kyler: 2-4 SU/ATS vs. SEA (lost 3 straight)
+ Kyler vs. NFC West: 5-14 SU, 6-11-2 ATS

Rams at Buccaneers

+ Teams on 3+ game SU losing streak, listed as favorites are covering at 47.6% rate last 20 years. When that team scores under 20 PPG? 72-89-4 ATS (44.7%).

+ Tom Brady ATS: 24-23 w/ TB | 187-127-10 ATS w/ NE

+ Brady and Bucs have lost 6 consecutive games ATS. First time that has happened to Brady since the 2007-08 season.

Tom Brady Largest Single Season ATS Losing Streak

6 – 2007-08

6 – 2022

Worst Against the Spread Start to a Season for Tom Brady…

𝟐-𝟔 𝐀𝐓𝐒: 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟐

3-5 ATS: 2021, 2005, 2002


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