NFL Week 5 begins with 49ers vs Rams on TNF.
The Rams rebounded from a rough loss to the Eagles with a win over the Colts in Week 4. The 49ers, meanwhile, dropped a game to the Jaguars — and suffered a litany of injuries to more skill-position players that will be sidelined for Thursday Night Football.
- For more Thursday Night Football coverage, check out my 49ers vs Rams preview, which includes my pick for the game.
Mac Jones will be pressed into action once again for the injured Brock Purdy, and I'm targeting the former Patriot tonight as I suspect the potential game script, in conjunction with the 49ers' injuries, could lead to plenty of opportunities — find my Mac Jones over/under bet below.
Mac Jones Props: Over/Under Prediction for TNF
I’m projecting Mac Jones closer to 34.1 pass attempts tonight.
San Francisco is now sitting as a 7.5-to-8.5-point underdog with Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall already ruled out. Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are still out as well.
Jones will be working with second- and third-string receivers, but those are actually the guys he’s thrown to the most in practice. Veteran Kendrick Bourne, in particular, already has chemistry with Jones from their time together with the Patriots.
The 49ers are expected to play from behind at a much higher rate than they have been this season, which naturally pushes their playcalling into a more pass-heavy direction even with the downgraded receiver group.
When Jones has been under center, the 49ers have posted a +9.6% PROE compared to -2.7% with Purdy. This is probably just noise, but still a massive swing.
The biggest thing working for this pass attempts prop is how stationary Jones is. He has scrambled once all season and is supposedly wearing a knee brace tonight, so the chances of him taking off are even lower.
If Jones drops back and doesn’t get sacked, it’s usually going in the books as a pass attempt. He’s also throwing the ball away at a high rate, which is exactly the kind of empty play you want when betting this type of prop.
Jones' average depth of target is 7.0 compared to Purdy’s 7.6. That may not sound like much, but lower aDOT quarterbacks can rack up a couple of extra attempts just by checking down more often. All of these factors lead Jones to deserving a higher pass attempt prop than we would give Purdy in this spot.
One last edge that I don’t think is being priced in at all: Rams kicker Joshua Karty has basically mastered the new kickoff rule already. Opposing teams are starting drives at their own 21.7-yard line on average, which is last in the league.
A longer field means more potential plays, which equals more dropbacks, which equals more attempts.
