The San Francisco 49ers (3-1) and Los Angeles Rams (3-1) face off in Week 5 Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif. The game will broadcast live on Prime Video.
The Rams are favored by -8.5 on the spread with the over/under set at 45.5 total points. The Rams are -450 moneyline favorites while the 49ers are +350 to pull off the upset.
The 49ers will not have the services of Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings on Thursday Night Football, which has led to the Rams becoming massive favorites (the spread was Rams -1.5 at open and has moved to -8.5; the moneyline -122 to -450).
Let's get into my 49ers vs Rams predictions for Thursday Night Football on October 2.
49ers vs Rams Prediction
- 49ers vs Rams pick: 2nd Half Total Under 22.5; bet to Under 21.5
My 49ers vs Rams best bet is on the second half total under. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
49ers vs Rams Odds
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | +350 |
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -450 |
49ers vs Rams Thursday Night Football Preview
When the 49ers Have the Ball
The 49ers are a full-on MASH unit on the short week for Thursday Night Football with several key offensive players already ruled out.
QB Brock Purdy is out once again, along with WRs Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall. They’re still missing WR Brandon Aiyuk and TE George Kittle (both on IR). This comes after the team traded Deebo Samuel to the Commanders in the offseason. It’s a lot to unpack.
From a quarterback standpoint, I don’t think the market downgrade from Purdy to Mac Jones should be as steep as it will likely be priced.
Purdy is an excellent fit in Kyle Shanahan's offense when the key supporting cast is healthy. But Mac Jones has quietly done a solid job filling in, going 2-0 in his starts against the Saints and Cardinals. The problem this week is that all of the 49ers' top receiving options are out, so Jones will essentially be throwing to second- and third-stringers.
Ideally, San Francisco would lean on Christian McCaffrey and try to make this a run-based attack as that’s traditionally the engine of the Shanahan scheme.
The problem is McCaffrey hasn’t been able to get going; he’s averaging 3.3 yards per carry and his 2.5 yards after contact per attempt ranks second-lowest among 41 qualified RBs. You can blame part of that on the offensive line, but defensive fronts have also been able to load up more against the run with the 49ers’ passing game so depleted. I expect San Francisco to lean more on checkdowns to McCaffrey as an extension of the run game.
The Rams’ defensive front has been excellent at generating pressure; they have the fourth-highest pressure rate despite blitzing at the 10th-lowest rate. That will stress the 49ers offense even more, especially in the second half when they’ll likely be playing from behind and forced into a more pass-heavy script.
When the Rams Have the Ball
Rams QB Matthew Stafford missed most of training camp with a back issue that had his Week 1 availability in question, but he’s looked completely fine in the regular season — arguably better than last season.
I noted before the season that adding Davante Adams as a legit WR2 behind Puka Nacua would help fix Stafford’s red-zone issues, which is why I bet Over 22.5 pass TDs on the season. Sure enough, Stafford already has eight through four games. Davante has a TD in three straight games and has accounted for nine of Stafford’s 10 end-zone targets so far.
With Nick Bosa out for the season, I don’t expect the 49ers to generate much pressure. They were only able to get a 19% pressure rate against Trevor Lawrence last week — their second-lowest mark of the season. Stafford should have a relatively clean pocket to work from.
San Francisco’s run defense has been stronger than its pass defense (9th in DVOA against the run vs. 16th against the pass) thanks in large part to Fred Warner, who is playing at an absurd level. He already has nine tackles for loss or no gain, which leads the NFL (he had just eight last season). This could matter more in the second half, when the Rams are likely nursing a lead and shifting run-heavy.
49ers vs Rams Prediction, Betting Analysis
The move up to Rams -7 makes complete sense with how depleted the 49ers are right now. The full-game total of 44.5 feels about right on the surface, but (similar to Saints/Bills the other week) I think we’re looking at two different scoring environments by half.
Everything points toward the second half slowing down: If the Rams are playing with a lead, they’ll lean more on the run, which plays into the strength of the 49ers’ defense.
The 49ers’ offense historically struggles when trailing, and that issue will be amplified here with every key WR/TE ruled out.
As Evan Abrams pointed out, Kyle Shanahan is 4-23 as an underdog of 4+ points. Part of that is because his offense simply isn’t built to play from behind. I think we see that play out here.
Pick: 2nd Half Total Under 22.5 (-105; bet365); bet to 21.5
Spread
I don't have a pick for either side of the spread.
Moneyline
I have no pick for either moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm specifically targeting the second half under.
