A Seven-Figure Day
11:22 p.m. ET
There's a man somewhere in New Jersey who's quite happy right about now. He had a day that most bettors can only dream of.
It started with the 1 p.m. ET slate, when this mystery bettor plopped down $410,000 via William Hill's mobile app on Steelers -1 vs. Colts (to win $360K), fading a Colts team that was a public darling. That bet won, but not without a little luck. Colts QB Jacoby Brissett was knocked out of the game and Indy missed a potential game-winning field goal in the final minute.
After surviving that, this bettor moved onto Packers-Chargers, the most-bet game of the late afternoon slate, and he again faded the popular road favorite, betting Chargers +4 … for $495,000 (to win $450K). L.A. cruised to an easy victory.
If you're keeping track at home, that's a $810,000 profit in six hours.
Then came the Sunday Night Football game between the Patriots and Ravens, the most-bet game of the NFL season, according to sources. The Patriots were a popular bet as 3-point road favorites; the Ravens were the sharp play. Guess which side this bettor took?
The Ravens trucked New England, 37-20, easily covering the number and netting this bettor another $363,600.
Add it all up, and that's a $1,173,600 day. Not too shabby.
Late Six-Figure Bet Comes in on Baltimore
8:10 p.m. ET
William Hill reports that they took a $400,000 bet on the Ravens at +3 (-110) against the Patriots. The deep-pocketed bettor stands to net $363,600 if Baltimore can beat the number against Bill Belichick & Co.
Turns out, this was was placed by the same bettor who put $910,000 combined on the Steelers -1 and Chargers +4. Both of those bets won, netting this bettor an eye-popping $810,000.
If the Ravens cover, he'll be up $1,173,600 for the day.
The Biggest Handle of the Season
7 p.m. ET
We've got ourselves a legitimate headliner this Sunday night and bettors are acting accordingly.
The undefeated New England Patriots are 3-point road favorites against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football and according to Jeff Sherman this game is going to generate the biggest handle of the season by the time it kicks off.
According to our market-wide data, 77% of the bets but 68% of the money has come in on New England, signaling that casual bettors are on New England but the bigger bets are on the Ravens.
Sherman said the Westgate is rooting for the Ravens but since a lot of sharp money has come in on the Ravens, other sportsbooks would benefit from a Patriots cover.
"As expected, there's a pretty significant pro-public divide, with 70% of the tickets on the Patriots but 60% of the money on the Ravens," PointsBet's Matt Chaprales said earlier this morning. "There's certainly worse things than needing Brady and Belichick in a primetime game."
Chaprales also said that this game will generate "one of, if not the biggest handles" of the regular season.
Your Casual $910K Sunday
One bettor in New Jersey is feelin' a little frisky on Sunday. As Patrick Everson first reported and William Hill confirmed to The Action Network, this bettor placed two wagers totaling $410,000 on Steelers -1 vs. Colts (to win $360K) and another three bets on Chargers +4 vs. Packers totaling $495,000 (to win $450K) That's $910K from one bettor on two NFL games.
The $495K wager is the second-largest bet William Hill has taken this season. Back in Week 3, the book took a $506,000 bet on the Cleveland Browns to cover against the Los Angeles Rams.
The day got off to a great start for this bettor: The Steelers bets cashed after the Colts missed a final-minute field goal that would've given Indy the lead. At the time of writing, the Chargers lead the Packers 6-0 early in the second quarter.
More Big Bets Pay Off
4:15 p.m. ET
As we reported earlier on Sunday, one bettor at DraftKings was extremely confident in Buffalo, wagering $66,000 on the Bills to cover as 9-point favorites against the Redskins.
The line closed at a consensus of 10.5, and even at that number, the Bills took care of business pretty easily, netting $57,420 for this particular bettor. Just look at the cover probability graph for The Action Network app. Buffalo never had less than a 50% chance to cover at any point of the game.
Another bet that paid off in a big way? Chiefs -3 in the second half vs. the Vikings. One bettor at the South Point in Vegas plopped down $22K on that wager, per bookmaker Jimmy Vaccaro. Harrison Butker's game-winning field goal secured a victory for both the Chiefs and this bettor.
Nice halftime bet pic.twitter.com/L1uPSbIgnH
— Jimmy Vaccaro (@JimmyVaccaro) November 3, 2019
Five-Figure Splash on the Bills
12:10 p.m. ET, Sunday
The biggest bet of the day at DraftKings is a $66,000 bet on the Buffalo Bills at -9 (-115) against the Washington Redskins. If the bet cashes, the bettor would net $57,420.
The Bills have since moved from -9 to -11 at DraftKings.
Public Darlings
10 a.m. ET, Sunday
One look up and down the Week 9 oddsboard and any seasoned sports bettor could make an educated assumption on where the public's money would be landing.
According to our market-wide data, the Packers, Browns and Patriots are the three most popular sides of the day, with each team attracting more than 75% of the tickets in its respective matchup.
Unsurprisingly, the guys in the desert will be rooting against those sides.
Jeff Sherman of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas said his shop's three biggest needs will be the Chargers (+4) against the Packers, Broncos (+4) against the Browns and Ravens (+3) against the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. Sensing a pattern?
Sherman also noted that they took some professional action on the Ravens, but the sharps and squares seem to be on the same side in Packers-Chargers and Browns-Broncos. The Packers and Browns are seeing a ton of support at DraftKings. According to the folks there, 94% of the money they've taken on Packers-Chargers has come in on the Pack, while the Browns have attracted 89% of the dollars in their tilt with the Broncos.
Big Bets
According to Sherman, these are the four biggest bets for Sunday's action:
- $24,000 to win $20,000 on Browns (-3) against Broncos
- $22,000 to win $20,000 on Buccaneers (+6) against Seahawks
- $22,000 to win $20,000 on Ravens (+3.5) against Patriots
- $22,000 to win $20,000 on Lions (+3) against Raiders
Colts at Steelers (-1)
1 p.m. ET
Barring some crazy flurry of action leading up to kick, this will be the most-bet game during the early slate. The Steelers opened as 1.5-point home favorites and this has the feel of a Pros vs. Joe's game, as 70% of the tickets are on the Colts but according to Sherman, the sharps are taking the Steelers at home.
"The public is catching onto this Colts team, which has been cashing tickets on the road this season," PointsBet's Matt Chaprales said. "We're not accustomed to seeing the Steelers as a fade at home but that's the case here with 80% of the tickets and over 85% of the money on the Colts."
Jets (-3.5) at Dolphins
1 p.m. ET
It isn't every week that the public is looking to back a one-win team, but these Dolphins are something special.
If you have friends that don't bet, this is the game they will roll their eyes at, saying "I can't believe you bet Jets-Dolphins," but the money you win on this Toilet Bowl is just as green as the money you win on the Super Bowl.
According to our data, 70% of the tickets have come in on Sam Darnold and the Jets, but this line has shifted towards the Dolphins all week. After opening at Jets -5.5, the spread now sits at Jets -3.5.
You'd think that the sportsbooks would be rooting on the winless Dolphins in this matchup, but the bigger bets are coming in on Miami and that has shifted the sentiment around the Fish.
"We're seeing lopsided action on the Jets," Chaprales noted. "Over 80% of the tickets are on the Jets, but over 65% of the money is on Miami, with the number tightening to 3 as a result. We're once again fans of a Dolphins opponent, which is becoming one of the more interesting themes of the past month."
Bears at Eagles (-4)
1 p.m. ET
There's not much left to say about the Bears. Chicago is the most disappointing team in the NFL this season and the playoffs seem like a real longshot for a team that was supposed to contend for a Super Bowl. Coming into the season, Chicago was a public darling but that sentiment has flipped. The Eagles are getting 68% of the bets against the Bears on Sunday.
The lack of support for Chicago has turned this into one of the biggest decisions of the early window at PointsBet.
"Not surprisingly, no one wants anything to do with this Bears team so long as Mitch Trubisky is on the field," Chaprales said. "We need the Bears big time."
Packers (-4.5) at Chargers
4:25 p.m. ET
The 7-1 Packers look like legitimate Super Bowl contenders and that's how they are being bet on Sunday on the road against the Chargers. Despite not kicking off until 4:25 p.m. ET, this game is already generating a huge handle and Green Bay is the most popular side according to our market-wide data with 84% of the tickets backing the Pack.
One thing to remember is that most bettors consider the Chargers' home-field advantage to be among the worst in the NFL and Packers fans travel very well.
"The Packers continue to cash tickets and the public continues to pound them. No different today," Chaprales reported. "More than 75% of the tickets are on Green Bay but the sharper bets here are backing the Chargers."
Lions at Raiders (-3)
4:05 p.m. ET
This game looks like it's taking pretty solid two-way action, with the Raiders getting 51% of the tickets but Sherman noted that the Westgate has taken some sharp money on Oakland. Our data backs that up as 61% of the dollars are on the Raiders.
Buccaneers at Seahawks (-4.5)
4:05 p.m. ET
The game with the highest total also features a pretty big disparity between Bets vs. Dollars. The Seahawks are getting 60% of the tickets but just 49% of the dollars, signaling that the bigger bets are coming in on the Bucs.
Sherman noted the Westgate is seeing a stark split in this game with casual bettors backing Seattle at home while the sharps are taking the points, which explains why this line has moved from Seattle -5.5 to -4.5 at the SuperBook.
