The New England Patriots (11-3) and Baltimore Ravens (7-7) meet in the Week 16 edition of Sunday Night Football on December 21. Kickoff is set for in 8:20 p.m. ET from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Md. The game will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Ravens are favored by -3 on the spread; the over/under is set at 48.5 points. The Ravens are -170 favorites to win on the moneyline, while the Patriots are +142 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Sunday Night Football preview and Patriots vs Ravens prediction for tonight's clash between AFC contenders.
Patriots vs Ravens Prediction
- Patriots vs Ravens pick: Ravens -3
My Patriots vs Ravens best bet is Baltimore to cover the spread. Find the best SNF odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Patriots vs Ravens Odds
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 48.5 -115o / -105u | +142 |
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 48.5 -115o / -105u | -170 |
Patriots vs Ravens Sunday Night Football Preview
This Sunday Night Football game is a pivotal one for the up-and-down Ravens, who entered Sunday second behind the Steelers in the AFC North. If the Ravens defeat the Patriots (and Pittsburgh suffers a loss in Detroit earlier in the day), Baltimore's Week 17 game at Green Bay would become completely meaningless for the Ravens, who could opt to rest Lamar Jackson (and other key players) if they so choose.
In that scenario, the AFC North title would come down to their Week 18 divisional showdown in Pittsburgh.
This game doesn't mean as much to the Patriots, wh0 can clinch the AFC East by simply defeating the Jets and Dolphins (with potentially Brady Cook and Quinn Ewers at QB) over the final two weeks.
Does that mean the Patriots won't try here? Absolutely not.
However, head coach Mike Vrabel and company could take a more cautious approach when it comes to injuries as a result.
Speaking of which, the Patriots had one of the healthiest rosters in the NFL for most of the season. But that's no longer the case with left tackle Will Campbell and defensive tackle Milton Williams on injured reserve, which really hurts them in the trenches. And now, they have additional injuries throughout the back end of their defense.
Starting linebacker Robert Spillane, who leads the team in tackles, will miss tonight's game. That's a massive loss for New England's run defense, which has already cratered since losing Williams and may also be without starting defensive lineman Christian Barmore (questionable) and starting outside linebacker Harold Landry (questionable).
Since Week 8, the Patriots defense ranks 30th in Rush Success Rate and Rush EPA. That could spell doom against a Ravens rushing attack that is firing on all cylinders.
Over that same time period (since Week 8, when the Ravens came out of the bye healthier), Baltimore ranks second in Rush EPA after ranking 22nd over the first seven weeks.
Lamar Jackson continues to improve incrementally from a health standpoint with each passing game — I finally saw some very encouraging signs in the shutout victory over the Bengals.
There will be ample opportunities for Jackson to attack the middle of the field and exploit the Patriots' linebackers, who struggle in coverage.
The Patriots' pass defense already had flaws (26th DVOA), and now they might have to make do without a pair of starting cornerbacks in Marcus Jones and Carlton Davis, who are both listed as questionable.
The Ravens have struggled scoring in the red zone this season (second-lowest red zone TD%), which has contributed to their overall decline in offensive efficiency. However, the Patriots defense could be the antidote to get back on track — New England ranks last in red-zone TD% allowed.
I project this game over a field goal, so I'm okay with a cheap Ravens -3 or a more expensive -2.5 on the spread if that pops up at some point.
I believe the Patriots are a bit overvalued in the market after playing through the league's easiest schedule to date — seven wins came against either rookie quarterbacks or ones that have been benched.
Additionally, New England has had luck on its side in several high-variance categories, including fumbles and fourth downs.
- New England has converted 14-of-19 fourth-down attempts; opponents have gone 8-for-23.
- The Patriots have lost only 7-of-17 fumbles (41%), while recovering 66.67% of their opponent's fumbles.
Don't be surprised if Baltimore gets a few bounces at the Bank.
Patriots vs Ravens Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Patriots won't make this easy for the Ravens.
Drake Maye is playing at an incredibly high level for the Patriots in his sophomore season, especially when you consider some of the protection issues he's had to deal with in addition to a rushing attack that ranks 29th in Success Rate. Maye has the poise of a veteran and throws one of — if not the best — deep ball in the NFL.
That said, Maye has gotten away with some throws (against some terrible defenses to boot) and has to deal with a much worse tackle on his blindside. Through 15 weeks, Maye has a 23:7 TD:INT ratio despite a 23:14 BTT:TWP ratio. He should have a few more picks than the seven he has.
On the ground, I do not foresee New England getting anything going on the ground with TreVeyon Henderson and/or Rhamondre Stevenson against a Baltimore defense that ranks first in Rush EPA since Week 6. With better health has come better results for Zach Orr's defense, which ranks fifth in both EPA and Success Rate over that stretch.
Kyle Hamilton appeared on the Ravens' the injury report after getting banged up in practice on Friday. That's worth monitoring — he's their best and most versatile defensive player. You may think of him as a safety, but he's now more of a hybrid linebacker.
Since Week 5, Hamilton's only played traditional safety on about 3% of snaps. He's been splitting time between slot, linebacker, and even just right at the line of scrimmage on a quarter of snaps.
Chidobe Awuzie has played at a very high level at corner for Baltimore this season and is listed as doubtful with a foot injury. That's not an insignificant loss, especially if Hamilton isn't at 100% or doesn't play.
Despite these injuries, the Ravens are in a better health spot than the Patriots entering this matchup.
Lastly, it's worth noting this is usually when Lamar Jackson shines. In his career, he's 18-8 against the spread (ATS) in December and has never lost a game between Weeks 15-18.
Pick: Ravens -3
Spread
I like the Ravens to cover the spread in tonight's game — monitor to lines to see a -2.5 pops up.
Moneyline
I have no play for either moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no bet for the game total.
