Raiders-Dolphins Betting Preview: Will Jon Gruden & Co. Get Their First Win?

Sep 21, 2018 4:00 AM EDT

Betting odds: Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins

  • Spread: Dolphins -3
  • Over/Under: 44.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: This over has been one of the most popular ones of the weekend. It’s landed 76% of bets and 98% of dollars as of writing (see live data here), but the total has actually fallen a half-point from its opening number at BookMaker. Danny Donahue

Weather report: Temperatures are expected to be in the high 80s in Miami, which one would imagine would benefit the Dolphins, as they’re more used to playing in the heat than other teams around the league.

But that has not been the case for Florida teams historically.

According to our Bet Labs data, the Bucs, Jaguars and Dolphins are a combined 57-95-3 (37.5%) against the spread since 2003 in games with average temperatures higher than 80 degrees.

This drops down to 36.3% when looking only at home games. Yikes. Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Are we sure the Dolphins are good? Wins over the Titans and Jets don’t look impressive.

Since 2003, teams such as Miami that failed to make the playoffs the year before, start the next season with a winning record and are favored in their next game have gone 193-251-16 (43.5%) ATS. John Ewing

Through two weeks, the Raiders are averaging only 16 points per game, the fifth-fewest in the NFL. With that have come two consecutive unders for Jon Gruden & Co.

Over Derek Carr’s past nine games as a starter, the Raiders are 2-7 straight-up and averaging 15.2 points per game. The under cashed in all nine starts by 7.2 ppg.

Since the start of the 2017 season, the under is 13-4 (+8.3 units) when Carr starts, making him the most profitable NFL QB to the under over that span. Evan Abrams

Metrics that matter: The Dolphins’ efficiency can’t be ignored. They rank No. 2 in rushing success rate and No. 11 in passing success rate on offense. They’re also top five in both rushing and passing success rate on defense.

The Rams and Broncos made the Raiders look worse than they are, but history is in the Dolphins’ favor: According to BetLabs, teams on two-game winning streaks that face teams on two-game losing streaks have gone 63-52-2 (54.8%) ATS since 2003. Chris Raybon

Injury watch: The Raiders offense is expected to be full go — assuming guard Gabe Jackson (pectoral), center Rodney Hudson (ankle) and Marshawn Lynch (shoulder) suit up after practicing in a limited fashion all week.

The defense also has a chance to be mostly healthy, as only cornerback Leon Hall (illness) and defensive tackle P.J. Hall (ankle) missed practice time this week.

The Dolphins secondary could be at less than 100% on Sunday if safety Reshad Jones (shoulder) and/or cornerback Bobby McCain (knee) are unable to suit up.

The offense should be good to go with the exception of wide receiver DeVante Parker (finger), who remained sidelined in Week 2 even though he had resumed practicing in full.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Dashboard for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: Usage is king in fantasy football, and Jared Cook leads the Raiders with 22% of the target share and 32% of air yards.

This matchup stands out as the Dolphins defense ranked in the bottom three in yards (1,034) and touchdowns (10) allowed to tight ends in 2017, and looks no different this year with Miami’s linebackers and safeties all struggling in pass coverage.

Cook’s +2.18 Projected Plus/Minus in the FantasyLabs Player Models is the third-highest mark in Week 3. Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Raiders +3

If you had asked me before the season which side of this game I would be betting, there would’ve been no doubt that I’d be fading Gruden’s Raiders and taking a contrarian Dolphins side.

But of course the Dolphins had to go screw everything up by winning their first two games, and now I find myself fading an overvalued, undefeated Dolphins team that’s getting the majority of bets.

A couple trends to note:

1. The Raiders are on the second leg of back-to-back games as a road dog. When a team loses the first of those two games, and the public fades it as a result the following week, it has actually gone 146-103-5 (59%) ATS since 2003 in the second game.

2. Non-playoff teams from the previous year shouldn’t necessarily be trusted when they’re off to a hot start the next season.

When the public backs a non-playoff favorite with a winning record in the first half of the season, those teams have gone 147-189-9 (44%) ATS since 2003. Donahue

 


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

Credit:

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jon Gruden

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
HOU
WAS
43
+3
42.5
+3
CIN
BAL
--
--
--
--
PIT
JAC
47.5
+6
47
+5.5
CAR
DET
50.5
+3
49.5
+4.5
DAL
ATL
47.5
-4.5
49.5
-3
TEN
IND
48
-3
50.5
-1.5
TB
NYG
52
PK
52.5
-2.5
OAK
ARI
41
-4
41
-5.5
DEN
LAC
47
-7.5
45.5
-7
PHI
NO
54.5
-9
56.5
-7.5
MIN
CHI
45.5
-2.5
44.5
-2.5
KC
LA
63.5
-1
63
-3.5