49ers-Cardinals Betting Preview: Should You Buy San Fran as Road Favorites?

49ers-Cardinals Betting Preview: Should You Buy San Fran as Road Favorites? article feature image
Credit:

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: C.J. Beathard

Betting odds: San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

  • Spread: 49ers -1
  • Over/Under: 42.5
  • Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: C.J. Beathard could close as a road favorite for the first time in his career, and bettors seem to be buying in.

Sixty-two percent of tickets are behind San Francisco, accounting for 78% of dollars as of writing (see live data here), which has moved the Niners from a pick ’em to -1. Similarly, the total has moved from 43.5 to 42.5 with 66% of bets and 61% of money wagered on the under. Danny Donahue

Trends to know: The 49ers and Cardinals are tied with the Giants for the worst record in football at 1-6.

When two bad teams play (i.e. won 20% or less of their games), the underdog is 67-45-4 (60%) against the spread since 2003. John Ewing

This might be one of the worst divisional matchups in some time. Since 2003, when two divisional opponents meet in October or later and each has won less than 20% of its games, the favored team is 6-1 straight up and ATS, with five of the seven games decided by single digits. Evan Abrams

Since 2015, the 49ers are 5-23 SU and 12-15-1 ATS on the road, including 3-9 SU and 8-4 ATS under Kyle Shanahan. Over that span, only Cleveland has been worse SU on the road, and the Browns have won only one road game (1-26 SU).Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Cardinals offensive line vs. 49ers defensive line

The Cardinals boast the week’s second-worst matchup in combined pressure rate between a team’s offensive line and the opposing defense.

Overall, the Cardinals join the Cowboys and Texans as the only offenses that have allowed their quarterback to be pressured on at least 40% of their dropbacks, while the 49ers’ defense ranks 12th in pressures per dropback.

deforest-buckner
Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Francisco’s DeForest Buckner.

It’s not surprising the over/under has fallen to 42.5 points since opening at 43.5. Ian Hartitz

Which team is healthier? Cardinals

Josh Rosen (toe) and Larry Fitzgerald (hamstring) are fully expected to suit up, but the statuses of safety Tre Boston (shoulder/ribs) and left guard Jeremy Vujnovich (hamstring) remain murky.

The 49ers continue to be all kinds of banged up. Running back Matt Breida (ankle), cornerbacks Jimmie Ward (hamstring) and Richard Sherman (calf), receivers Pierre Garcon (shoulder/knee) and Dante Pettis (knee), right guard Mike Person (knee), and center Weston Richburg (knee) failed to get in a full practice on Wednesday.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Dashboard for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Hartitz

DFS edge: A game total of 42.5 doesn’t seem like a great spot to target offensive players, but the Cardinals defense is in an appealing spot.

Overall, the 49ers have struggled to protect Beathard. He’s been pressured on 36.6% of his dropbacks and sacked on 23.3% — the eighth-highest mark in the league per Pro Football Focus.

Furthermore, the Cardinals rank seventh in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Sack Rate and the 49ers are implied for a paltry 21 points. Arizona’s defense is a better value on FanDuel, where they cost just $3,400. Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Cardinals +1

I’m really struggling to understand this spread.

The Cardinals beat the 49ers by double-digits in San Francisco a few weeks ago, and now they’re underdogs against them at home?

This line suggest that San Fran is roughly four points better than the Cardinals on a neutral field, which I have a really hard time getting behind.

The Cardinals were just embarrassed on national TV by the Broncos, but Thursday games notoriously favor the better team: Favorites are now 5-1 ATS on Thursday Night Football, so I’m not holding that loss against Arizona.

On the other hand, the public wants nothing to do with the Cardinals.

Arizona has received only 38% of the tickets as of writing, and teams coming off a blowout loss with minimal public support have gone 89-62-5 ATS since 2003.

The Cards also fired offensive coordinator Mike McCoy after their embarrassing showing last week, so they should be motivated on Sunday. Matt LaMarca


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.