Super Bowl 55 Betting Strategy: The Smart Way To Bet the Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Spread & Over/Under
Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates
This initial flurry of Super Bowl 55 odds movement is over, which is quite common when it comes to betting this game.
The Chiefs vs. Buccaneers spread has already dropped from 3.5 to 3, while big bets have driven the Super Bowl total down from an opener of 57.5 to 56.
With the Super Bowl 55 betting market now settled, the big question is how to bet Chiefs vs. Bucs no matter which side or total you like.
Is it smarter to wait in the hopes that future movement makes your bet more valuable? Or is now the time to pounce?
Based on historical NFC betting data and our PRO tools, let’s examine the smart way to approach Super Bowl 55.
Super Bowl 55 Spread Betting Strategy
If you like the Chiefs …
Early action has already pushed the spread from Kansas City -3.5 to -3 (click here for the latest Super Bowl 55 odds), making the favorite much more appetizing for bettors.
Considering 14.8% of NFL games have finished with a margin of victory of three points since 2003, it’s easy to see the importance of this half-point line move.
The Action Network’s NFL PRO Projections set the Chiefs vs. Bucs spread at Kansas City -2.3, so I’m inclined to gamble and wait on this line.
I’m not necessarily saying it’s going to make another huge half-point adjustment to -2.5 (though it is certainly possible), but I’m also not all that confident this number is going to float back to -3.5 anytime soon either.
It’s reasonable to assume that professionals who do like the Chiefs will wait until closer to game day when betting limits increase to take a market-moving position, so there’s time to wait and see what this spread does in the hope that the number and vig become less punitive for KC bettors.
If you like the Bucs …
Because our model sees a 4.2% edge with Bucs +3 right now, I’m inclined to go ahead and grab that value, even after the line move.
And remember, not all +3s are created equally, so peruse the market for the most accommodating vig associated with those 3 points.
Super Bowl 55 Over/Under Betting Strategy
If you like the over …
The Super Bowl 55 total has already dropped from an opener of 57.5 to 56 thanks to big early bets landing on the under, so the number has already improved if you’ve been looking to play the over.
Still, 56 is about as dead of a number in over/under betting with just 1.2% of games finishing with exactly 56 points scored from 2015 through the end of last season.
And for the record, using data from 2015 is not an arbitrary endpoint — we specifically chose that start date since that’s when the NFL moved back extra-point attempts to the 15-yard line, which has had an effect on scoring compared to games before the rule change.
On the other hand, 3.22% of NFL games over that span have finished with 55 points, making it a much more important line for total bettors.
With this in mind, I’d be willing to gamble a bit that this number continues ticking down, especially considering 94% of the early money is on the under, and prepare myself to jump on 55 if it gets there.
If it doesn’t, anything on the over below 57 is likely fine as that’s the next quasi-important number in NFL total betting.
But if you’re already insisting on betting the over now, be sure to shop the market and lock in one of the shops offering 56.
If you like the under …
Go ahead and snag under 56.5. Enough sportsbooks are still at that number, so it shouldn’t be all that hard to find.
Like I mentioned above, the early money is flowing on the under and the importance of being above 55 is worth locking in right now.
However, if you do want to risk it (which is what we’re all doing in the sports betting game anyway, right?), hold out for 57 and make your move if it gets there.