Tom Brady Free Agency Odds: Patriots Favored to Sign Brady
Adam Glanzman/Getty Images. Pictured: Tom Brady
Tom Brady Free Agency Odds
- New England Patriots: -250
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +170
- Los Angeles Chargers: +1000
- San Francisco 49ers: +1300
- Las Vegas Raiders: +1500
- Miami Dolphins: +2200
- No Team/Retired: +2900
- Dallas Cowboys: +3400
- Indianapolis Colts: +4000
- New York Giants: +4000
- Chicago Bears: +5000
- Carolina Panthers: +9500
Tom Brady officially hits the 2020 NFL free agency market on Monday at noon ET, headlining the class of available quarterbacks.
Matthew Freedman — Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs and co-host of The Action Network’s Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio show — highlighted how he’s betting the free-agent QB market heading into the negotiation period. Find his Brady pick below.
Tom Brady Free Agency Pick
Matthew Freedman: Over the past few weeks, there has been a flurry of reports regarding Brady and his future.
For months, it had seemed like a fait accompli that Brady would return to the Patriots for what would be an NFL-record 21st season with one franchise. At one point, Brady’s odds to return to the Pats were in excess of -500 (bet $500 to win $100).
But then on Feb. 27, ESPN’s Jeff Darlington said this: “I’m now at the point where I would be stunned if Tom Brady went back to New England.”
Since then, Brady has been linked to almost every team with an obvious opening at quarterback.
Within hours of Darlington’s report, the Patriots dropped to -105 at one sportsbook, and that’s where I bet them.
I think the Patriots are the likeliest team to sign Brady.
He knows the organization, the owner, the coaching staff, the players, the building, the community, etc.
He is incredibly protective of his legacy, and he must know that if he signs with another team and plays poorly, his legacy — rightly or wrongly — will be impacted.
On top of that, although owner Robert Kraft has reportedly indicated that he will not advocate on Brady’s behalf during any conversations or negotiations with head coach/general manager Bill Belichick, it seems likely that Kraft will do everything he can to ensure that Brady stays with the Patriots.
As I’ve been writing this Brady blurb, his odds have moved from -175 to -195 to return to the Pats. A return to the only team he’s ever played for makes so much sense. Inertia is an under-appreciated universal force.
But I also think Brady has a real chance to end up with the Buccaneers, whose odds have moved from +470 to +360 as I’ve been writing on Sunday. I bet on the Bucs to sign Brady last week at +1200 (bet $100 to win $1,200).
Side note: Although I’m using FanDuel’s odds for this story, you can bet on Brady to the Bucs at +400 at PointsBet (NJ and IN only) — it always pays off to shop for the best lines.
It might seem strange to think that Brady would sign with a team that went 7-9 last year and plays in a tough NFC South division that houses three strong quarterbacks in Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Cam Newton.
But the Bucs have a two-time Coach of the Year in Bruce Arians, who is beloved by his players, especially his quarterbacks. Arians is basically the anti-Belichick. He collaborates with his signal-callers and caters to their strengths. Over the past decade, he has worked with Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck and Carson Palmer — and all of them have praised him and noted the positive impact he had on their careers.
With the Bucs, Brady would have what he notably lacked in 2019 with the Patriots: Outstanding pass-catching options.
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are probably the league’s best wide receiver duo. O.J. Howard has the potential to develop into a top tight end, and Cameron Brate is a solid veteran at the position. Even running back Ronald Jones, who entered the league as an unproven receiver, flashed last year in the pass-catching game with 31 receptions on 40 targets, and change-of-pace back Dare Ogunbowale added 35 receptions on 46 targets.
Although the Bucs struggled early in the year on defense, they finished the season ranked No. 5 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric and specifically were No. 1 in rush DVOA.
With Brady, there’s a real chance the Bucs could jump from 7-9 to 12-4 and win their division.
I could also see Brady signing with the Colts, who have a strong head coach in Frank Reich and perhaps the league’s best offensive line: Of the five starters, only right guard Mark Glowinski had a below-average offensive grade last season (60.5 per Pro Football Focus).
The Chargers and Raiders have been linked to Brady, but I don’t believe he’ll sign with either.
Why would Brady sign with the Chargers when they had the league’s second-worst PFF pass-blocking line last year (59.9 grade)?
Why would Brady join the Raiders, who have an unsettled receiving unit and a megalomaniac head coach in Jon Gruden?
Patriots -200: Two units. Limit: -200.
[Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
Buccaneers +400: 0.5 units. Limit: +350.
[Bet now at PointsBet. NJ and IN only.]
Colts +4000: 0.5 units. Limit: +3500.
[Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]