NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are out for the first time after Week 1 of the 2025 season.
These NFL rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed concept overview. You can also check out our season primer to understand how to use it to bet on the NFL.
When there is a large difference in luck between two teams, there has been proven success in betting on the unlucky team.
When the Luck Score in a game is 1.454 or higher, unlucky teams are 143-99-7 against the closing spread — the hardest line to beat. That equates to a 59.1% cover rate when pushes are removed over a sample size greater than 240 games!
We can do the same for totals, but those don't kick in until Week 3.
Here's how our NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 2, and be sure to check back on Wednesday, when our Predictive Analyst, Dr. Nick Giffen, breaks down Week 2 luck-based matchups.
NFL Week 2 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
