Our NFL Luck Rankings have proven to be a highly successful tool for betting NFL sides and totals.
In the three seasons since we first introduced the Luck Rankings, games that met significant thresholds for sides or totals have gone 125-80-4 (61%) against closing lines, which are the hardest lines to beat!
This year, we introduced Version 3.0 of our Luck Rankings as a way to continue to improve the methodology, as well as to simplify the thresholds and give you even better luck metrics.
As part of that, we've introduced something called the "Luck Score." This single number will tell us whether a game has a significant luck factor.
If the Luck Score is 1.454 or higher, we'll consider that a luck-based side. In addition, associated with each Luck Score will be a letter grade and a Luck-Based Cover% (LBC%). Anything with a "D" and up is playable, with expected improved results as we go up the letter-grade scale (from D to A).
Unlucky teams meeting this 1.454 Luck Score and D-rated threshold or better are 143-99-7 against the closing spread over the past seven years. That equates to a 59.1% cover rate when pushes are removed over a sample size greater than 240 games.
We'll have something similar for totals, but Luck Totals don't kick in until Week 3.
Based off our Week 2 NFL Luck Rankings, there are five Luck Ranking sides: three C-rated games and two B-rated games.
