The first NFL week of the 2025 season is officially in the books!
NFL Week 1 always feels like an early Christmas, with 16 games and 32 new presents of team data to unwrap and enjoy.
There's nothing quite like the time-honored tradition of overreacting to everything we saw on opening week, so let's overreact to one thing each from all 32 teams, then reach an early verdict on whether that overreaction is a real or not real takeaway from Week 1.
NFL Week 1 Recap, Reactions
Arizona Cardinals
Overreaction: Cardinals fans should be worried after barely holding on to beat the Saints!!
Arizona beat New Orleans by a score of 20-13, hanging on for dear life as Spencer Rattler drove the Saints into scoring position and hit a couple guys with passes in the end zone for potential tying scores, which they were unable to hang onto.
The Cardinals had only 276 yards against a Saints squad expected to be among the worst teams in the league. New Orleans actually outgained Arizona and blew its chance to win by going 1-of-4 in the red zone. The teams combined for just six second-half points.
Cards fans obviously shouldn't be excited, but they shouldn't be too worried yet either. It's tough to get up for an opener against a tanking team — and the Panthers up next may not be much more of a test either.
Still, these aren't the games Arizona's season will be judged on. However, beating the Saints and Panthers is perfectly okay, as long as you're ready for the 49ers and Seahawks games right after.
Verdict: NOT REAL
Atlanta Falcons
Overreaction: The Falcons blew a golden NFC South opportunity and now face an uphill battle all season!!
Atlanta had so many chances in this game. The Falcons got two superhero dives from Michael Penix in the final minutes to take the lead late, and Atlanta was a field goal away from overtime.
But Younghoe Koo missed, after already banking one in earlier, and the Falcons are 0-1 by giving away a home game to their top division rival despite 10 more minutes of possession and almost 100 more yards.
Penix threw 42 times against the Bucs. That's way too many passes, and that was without Darnell Mooney and maybe now Drake London after a late injury.
The Falcons could not run the ball at all, rushing 24 times for -12.5 EPA, a brutal 29% success rate and just one first down.
The offensive line also struggled without Drew Dalman and Kaleb McGary, and this was a step back for OC Zac Robinson.
It looks like the only legit options to win the NFC South are the Bucs and Falcons, but this is an immediate hole.
Atlanta doesn't play Tampa again until a Thursday night in December, with the Falcons coming off a short week after a tough game against a mean Seahawks defense and the Bucs coming off a home game against the Saints.
Now, Atlanta either has to win that one or make up three wins on the Bucs for the rest of the season.
This is a huge early hole.
Verdict: REAL
Baltimore Ravens
Overreaction: The Ravens are a flawed team; Sunday proved they'll never get it done when it matters most!!
For most of Sunday night, I spent the evening cackling at my screen. How could you not?
Lamar Jackson danced around the screen, firing lasers to a wide-open-again Zay Flowers and turning 30-yard sacks into 19-yard scampers.
When he got tired, Baltimore handed it off to Derrick Henry, who trucked a few defenders and burst down the sidelines for another long run. Somewhere in between, we remembered DeAndre Hopkins was on this team when he snagged a one-handed score.
Flowers had a career-high 143 yards. Henry had 169 yards and two scores. Jackson had a 98th percentile 0.69 EPA per play on over 11 YPA. The Ravens posted a 0.39 EPA per play on the night, 98th percentile and over 50% ahead of the Bills, while averaging 8.6 yards per play.
And then, like it has so many times before, it all came crashing down. Henry fumbled, the secondary couldn't stop a nosebleed, the offense disappeared late and the Ravens choked, losing by a score of 41-40.
The Ravens had around a 99% probability of winning with under five minutes left; now they're 0-1. It's the eighth loss since 2021 for Baltimore when it hit a win probability of at least 90%, five more than any other team.
Baltimore just keeps blowing these games somehow. And at some point, that has to be a pattern… right?
It is a pattern — but maybe not the one you think.
The pattern is that Baltimore keeps blowing quality and even great opponents out of the water and getting to 90 and even 99% win probability. That means more chances to blow an occasional lead late, so that part is happening too because hey, the ball is oblong and football is hard.
But what Sunday night told us most meaningfully with 21 weeks of football to go is that Baltimore is the best team in football — by far.
The Bills are No. 2 in my power ratings matrix, a loaded roster led by the reigning MVP, and the Ravens treated them like a plaything for 55 minutes. Baltimore looked like it could score anytime it wanted. The Ravens were embarrassing the Bills, in their own home.
I have the Ravens almost four full points to the spread ahead of the Bills — as far ahead of Buffalo as the Bills are ahead of the Steelers and Seahawks. It's Baltimore and everyone else.
That doesn't mean the Ravens are perfect. The defense allowed seven trips to the red zone, and the veteran secondary disappointed.
Baltimore consistently gets overly conservative calling plays, especially holding a late lead. The Ravens had a 48% neutral pass rate, ahead of only the Jets. That's unacceptable when your QB is a two-time MVP averaging a first down per throw.
But Sunday night should make us more confident in the Ravens, not less.
It's not possible to give Baltimore a bigger test than it got Sunday night — on the road, in primetime, against the best non-Ravens team in the league — and Baltimore completely aced the test for 55 minutes before sports happened.
The Ravens were so good Sunday that their Super Bowl odds barely changed at books, despite the loss. Their odds actually went up at FTN.
That means it's time to invest in Baltimore stock in a rare buy-low spot — possibly our last.
FTN projects Baltimore to go 12.1-3.9 the rest of the way. The Ravens are still projected with the second-best record in the NFL, 0.3 wins behind Buffalo, with a 93% chance of making the playoffs, a 75% shot of winning the AFC North, and over 50% at a top-2 seed.
Pick your favorite bet or take the whole escalator. There's clear value on the division at -135 (FanDuel), implied 57%, especially with a get-right Browns game up next. There's also value on a Ravens 1-seed (+550, BetMGM), and especially on most wins (+900, DraftKings), since the Ravens can split that one even with a Buffalo tie.
Sunday didn't show us Baltimore is a fraud. It showed us the Ravens are the best team in football, by far — and simultaneously gave us a chance to invest.
Verdict: NOT REAL
Buffalo Bills
Overreaction: The Bills are in the driver's seat for the AFC 1-seed, and it's Buffalo's title to lose now!!
Did Sunday night already deliver the game of the season?
The Bills trailed 40-25 on 4th-and-2 with only 4:10 left on the clock, owning a 1% chance to win in most models, and you probably remember what happened from there.
A pass intended for one Buffalo receiver was tipped by another and caught by a third for a TD, then an improbable Derrick Henry fumble set the Bills up for another score.
Buffalo failed to tie the game on a two-point conversion, made the insane decision to kick deep instead of an onside, stopped Baltimore for only the second time all game, then drove and kicked the field goal for a 41-40 scorigami win.
Josh Allen was masterful. He finished with 394 yards passing, well over half in the fourth quarter alone, and looked every bit the reigning MVP and hitting Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, Josh Palmer, and basically anyone else he picked out in the Ravens' secondary.
When it was over, the Bills had pulled off the improbable and sit 1-0 atop the AFC East, and more importantly, a game ahead of both the Ravens and Chiefs for the AFC 1-seed.
But that doesn't take away everything that happened to get Buffalo to that 1% chance to win either. The Bills' defense got gashed over and over again — all too common in big games under Sean McDermott — and the offense couldn't keep up with the league's best.
Crazy comebacks are great, but Buffalo doesn't want to aim for three straight 1% outcomes in January.
Sunday proved the Bills still have a lot of work to do to win a Super Bowl — and if they don't get things right, Sunday might end up the high-point of Buffalo's season instead of the start of its championship reel.
Verdict: NOT REAL
Carolina Panthers
Overreaction: It's time to start getting seriously worried about the Bryce Young era!!
It was a disappointing opener for the Panthers, a 26-10 loss to the Jaguars that most people missed as the game disappeared from NFL RedZone with an hour-long weather delay.
Probably just as well for Carolina fans, because there wasn't much to see.
Bryce Young looked about as bad as ever. He barely completed half of his 35 passes for just 154 yards and threw two interceptions, plus a pick-6 that was taken off the board by a penalty.
Young never looked comfortable, spraying passes all over the field — and not in a good way — and he made one particularly egregious throw out the back of the end zone on fourth down that no third-year QB should be making.
Carolina finished the day at 37% success rate, second-lowest of any NFL team, and that was against a Jaguars defense that's probably bottom 10 by talent and was debuting a brand new play caller.
It's definitely time to be worried. Carolina looks as bad as any team.
Verdict: REAL
Chicago Bears
Overreaction: Caleb Williams is a bust, Ben Johnson is a fraud, burn it all down!!
For three quarters, it was all so beautiful.
Caleb Williams led Chicago to an opening drive touchdown, something it didn't do all last season, and the Bears were rolling early.
Williams showed vastly improved pocket presence and scrambling ability and got the ball to his playmakers quickly. Chicago moved the ball early and repeatedly got into field goal position, even confident and in control enough to go aggressively on a couple fourth downs.
The Bears added a pick-6 and led 17-6 into the fourth quarter in front of a rocking home crowd — and then it all went sideways.
Chicago played without LB T.J. Edwards and both its top corners, and when another corner went down mid-game, the seams busted open.
The Bears offense disappeared badly late, Caleb Williams couldn't hit a throw, and suddenly everything was awful, and all too familiar.
The advanced metrics for Williams weren't pretty. He finished with a 29% off-target rate, -8 completion percentage over expected, and a 46% accurate-throw rate, all bottom four in the NFL, and he airmailed several key throws.
Williams finished with five overthrows on the night, and now has 52 since the start of last season, a full 17 more than anyone else in the league, almost 50% higher! I'm not sure this was on Ben Johnson.
Johnson's head coaching debut left something to be desired. His challenge was poor, and his decision to kick deep was questionable at best.
Chicago also had 12 penalties for 127 yards — some questionable, but that's on coaching too. But Johnson called a brilliant opening drive to get Williams comfortable and in the end zone early, and he consistently schemed receivers open. Williams was just missing them.
Ben Johnson is not a fraud. He's an outstanding play caller, and we have three years of data to prove that. The Bears were up 7% playaction rate compared to last season and up 12% in pre-snap motion; the Lions without Johnson dropped by 13 and 23%, respectively.
The jury is still out on Williams. He showed clear improvement Monday night — his pocket presence and scrambling stood out, and he played more within himself and made fewer mistakes — but his accuracy leaves plenty to be desired, and there's a lot to fix.
That's not great news, but it's not death either. Remember, last year was basically a lost season for Williams and the Bears. That means Monday was effectively a debut, and that was a pretty solid debut for both QBs from that perspective.
FTN still gives Chicago 31% to make the playoffs, showing value at +270 (Caesars), and even gives the Bears a surprising 15% chance at the division, leaving clear value at +1300 (Caesars), an implied percentage under half that (7%).
Bear down? How about double down? Bears Island ain't sunk yet, and it's a great spot to invest with Ben Johnson's former team up next.
Verdict: NOT REAL
Cincinnati Bengals
Overreaction: The Bengals finally solved their Week 1 problems and got off the schneid with a Week 1 win!!
The Bengals were 1-9 SU in Weeks 1 and 2 in the Joe Burrow era entering Sunday, so you'll forgive Cincinnati fans for just being happy with the W. But things did not go well in Ohio.
Cincinnati's offense was abysmal.
The Bengals averaged under three yards a play and got doubled up in first downs. Cincinnati ran 22 plays in the second half for just seven yards and a single first down, the fewest second-half yards by any winning NFL team this century.
Cincinnati also finished with 141 yards. Chase Brown ran 21 times for 2.0 yards per carry, and Joe Burrow had an ugly 4.9 YPA and took three sacks while the Bengals struggled to find anything explosive or downfield.
The Browns — the Browns!! — outgained the Bengals by almost 200 yards and should've won if not for two missed gimmes by rookie K Andre Szmyt.
A win is a win, but all Week 1 proved for the Bengals is that they have a whole lot to figure out going forward.
Verdict: NOT REAL
Cleveland Browns
Overreaction: The Browns should have won that game, man!!
Cleveland trounced the Bengals. The Browns outgained Cincinnati 327 to 141, and Cleveland's defense took away all Cincinnati's explosive plays and looked much more like the top defense under DC Jim Schwartz in 2023 than last season's disaster.
Joe Flacco let it rip 45 times for 290 yards, his usual shtick, and Cleveland rookies RB Dylan Sampson and TE Harold Fannin were heavily involved early. That duo caught 15 passes for 127 yards.
The Browns were miserable running the ball, successful on just one of 17 early-down runs — maybe Quinshon Judkins will help — but Cleveland was way better than Cincinnati on late downs and absolutely deserved to win, if not for Szmyt, whose surname rhymes with how Browns fans feel after another blown win they absolutely should've had.
Verdict: REAL
Dallas Cowboys
Overreaction: Maybe this is not a lost season without Micah Parsons after all!!
Dak Prescott was absolutely dealing on Opening Night, and the Cowboys probably should be 1-0 right now.
Dallas had seven of the nine top plays of the night by win probability added; the Eagles just happened to have the top two, a 51-yard pass to Jahan Dotson and the Miles Sanders fumble just before the weather break that cost Dallas 5.8 expected points.
The Cowboys' line held up well enough — thanks in part to Jalen Carter's spittin' ejection, of course — and Javonte Williams had a 60% success rate running the ball. CeeDee Lamb had an uncharacteristic number of drops, but he'll usually make those plays.
Dallas had zero pass rush all game and couldn't contain Jalen Hurts, and this team's margins are thin, so there's no room for moral victories.
But the Cowboys effectively played the Super Bowl champs to a draw, and that's a win just days after the demoralizing Parsons trade.
Verdict: REAL
Denver Broncos
Overreaction: Bo Nix might be just as bad as Denver's defense is good!!
Denver's defense was incredible on Sunday. The Broncos held the Titans to 133 yards and just seven first downs, hassling Cam Ward for six sacks and forcing two turnovers, and looking every bit the part of the top defense they were a year ago.
So, is it a little worrying that this was still a one-point game midway through the fourth quarter?
Bo Nix was abysmal. He lacked confidence and played like a rookie, lacking his usual accuracy and decisiveness and sailing balls over his receivers.
Nix finished at -0.22 EPA per play with two bad interceptions, and he threw 40 passes, an odd pass-heavy decision for a QB not built to be the star of an NFL offense.
The Broncos had just a 39% success rate offensively, worst of any winning team and fourth worst of any team in Week 1, win or lose.
They went 1-for-3 in the red zone and turned it over four times, and all this against a mostly outmanned Titans defense.
With the defense playing this well and the offense looking this haggard, this sure looks like an unders team until proven otherwise.
Verdict: REAL
Detroit Lions
Overreaction: The brain drain in Detroit is already rearing its ugly head!!
That was ugly.
The Lions looked like a shell of the team they were a year ago. The defense got chewed up by Jordan Love, and the offense was particularly outmanned and outclassed.
Detroit got bad Jared Goff, with four sacks and a 4.3 ADOT. Goff struggled under pressure all game, and the Lions struggled to run the ball, with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery rushing 20 times for just 44 yards. This offense badly missed Ben Johnson's creative play calling.
Detroit earned only one first down on first-down plays. The Lions had a lower success rate than any game last season, and their 10.8% explosive play rate was worse than only game in three Johnson years. Their 3.8 yards per play was Detroit's worst mark since 2020.
Green Bay looks like a Super Bowl contender. So, losing on the road to a division rival as you debut two new play callers is no crying shame. But the dropoff at both coordinator positions was clear, along with the losses in the trenches.
Detroit is around a coin flip to make the playoffs at most books, and just 41% to make at FTN. Life comes at you fast.
Verdict: REAL
Green Bay Packers
Overreaction: The Packers are legit, bona fide Super Bowl contenders now!!
Green Bay's destruction of Detroit was thorough and complete.
The Packers went up 10-0 quickly, held the Lions to a field goal after a long drive, and then scored another touchdown two plays later to effectively end the game.
Green Bay averaged almost two more yards per play than Detroit. Jordan Love threw for two touchdowns and put in an MVP-caliber 0.52 EPA per play, but the real story was the defensive performance.
Call it the Micah Parsons effect.
The Packers held the Lions out of the end zone until garbage time late, sacking Jared Goff four times. Parsons had one sack, but Rashan Gary, Lukas Van Ness and Devonte Wyatt also got on the board, all facing easier assignments now with how much attention Parsons is getting.
Parsons played 29 snaps. The Packers held Detroit to 2.4 yards per play on those snaps, sacking Goff three times, and his time to throw was a full 0.6 seconds shorter when Parsons was on the field.
This is a Super Bowl defense now, and the offense was already championship caliber. The window to contention is wide open in Green Bay.
Verdict: REAL
Houston Texans
Overreaction: The early returns on the new Texans' offense should be very concerning!!
Stop me if you've heard this one before: the Texans won the first half but came up short after halftime. Houston is now 14-4 ATS in the first half since the start of last season but 4-14 ATS after — and last week, the Texans didn't even score in the second half.
The Texans managed just a trio of field goals for the game. The maligned offensive line struggled from the jump, then got even worse as both LT Cam Robinson and C Jake Andrews left injured.
Nico Collins was weirdly quiet with just three catches for 25 yards and a 17% target rate, his lowest since mid-2023, and TE Cade Stover led the team in receiving but got hurt and is now out for the season.
Houston fired OC Bobby Slowik and replaced him with Nick Caley, and the returns from one game are pretty discouraging.
The Texans had just a 37% success rate, ahead of only Cam Ward's Titans, and they went 2-for-9 on third down and only got into the red zone one time against a Rams defense that ranks bottom-half of the league — at best.
Worse, there just wasn't a ton of creativity.
Houston played a huge majority of its snaps with three WRs despite having only one reliable option with Christian Kirk out, and the Texans rank 24th in pre-snap motion (35%) and 27th in playaction (11%), two OC tricks to make life easy on the QB and offense.
It's early, but so far this looked much closer to last year's disappointing offense than to C.J. Stroud's exciting rookie season.
Verdict: REAL
Indianapolis Colts
Overreaction: The Colts might really have something with this Daniel Jones offense!!
The Colts won their first season opener since 2013, when Andrew Luck and Vick Ballard outdueled Terrelle Pryor, Darren McFadden, and the Oakland Raiders. Yeah… It's been a minute.
But Indianapolis didn't just win. It massacred the Dolphins by a score of 33-8 in a game that somehow wasn't even that close.
Daniel Jones threw one touchdown and ran for two more — he's still +2000 to win Comeback Player of the Year if you believe (DraftKings) — and the Colts nearly doubled up the Dolphins in yards and time of possession, becoming the first team since 1997 to score on all seven drives in a game.
That's a great piece of trivia, but watching back, this felt much more about Miami than Indianapolis.
The Dolphins simply no-showed, and the Colts' offense was fine and did its job.
Credit Shane Steichen for setting this offense up for success by taking bite-sized chunks all game and staying ahead of the chains with a league-best 87% series conversion rate.
Indianapolis should feel good about its remade offensive line and its defensive effort, but just chewing up yards against a no-show opponent, starting five new names in the secondary, only gets you so far.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Overreaction: Liam Coen fixed the Jaguars offense!!
The Jaguars rolled to a 26-10 victory over the Panthers in the opener.
Trevor Lawrence did nothing special but was good enough, and Travis Hunter played 39 snaps on offense and had six catches for 33 yards on eight targets.
Far more encouraging was the suddenly rejuvenated rushing attack. Travis Etienne ran 16 times for 143 yards, and the Jaguars finished the day with 32 runs for 200 yards.
That's a super welcoming sight for a team that was consistently one of the worst in the league running the football the last few years, and it's probably no coincidence.
The Bucs were also a terrible rushing team before Coen turned them into one of the league's best overnight.
That's all fine and good, but 71 of those Etienne yards came on one breakaway, and all of this came against the league's worst defense from 2024. Lawrence also consistently missed open receivers, so the passing game still has a long way to go.
This was a nice start, but let's see Coen's offense against a real defense or two before we declare things fixed.
The Bengals' defense may not be much of a bigger test, but it does suddenly look like a game with AFC playoff implications.
Verdict: NOT REAL
Kansas City Chiefs
Overreaction: This is the year the rest of the AFC West finally catches up to the Chiefs!!
Brazil did not treat the Chiefs kindly.
Xavier Worthy ran into Travis Kelce on Kansas City's third play and is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury. Worse, that was probably Kelce's most notable contribution to the game, outside of a broken coverage touchdown.
For Kelce to get only four targets in a game where the Chiefs' receivers were down to Hollywood Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Tyquan Thornton — two of those three were so invaluable that the Patriots got rid of them — is a real concern, with Rashee Rice also out.
The Chiefs' offense struggled to find answers early, and even the later scoring often depended on long stuff and broken coverage.
The Chiefs were gifted a field goal just before the half when Omarion Hampton went out of bounds and Kansas City barely pulled off a fire drill kick.
Brown saw 16 targets — about 10 too many — and the Chiefs barely even tried to pretend they could run (they could not) at 78% neutral pass rate, highest of any Week 1 team. The line also struggled with penalties all night, with Jawaan Taylor the usual suspect.
All of that, and we haven't even mentioned the defense, with Kansas City's young secondary struggling and leaving Chargers receivers open all game.
The Chiefs are alone at 0-1 in the division and play the Eagles, Ravens, and Lions the next five weeks — presumably without both Rice and Worthy. It's not time to panic in Kansas City just yet, but the Chiefs may have a real division race on their hands for once.
FTN projects Kansas City at just 9.8 wins and only a 32% chance to win the division, with the Chiefs' most likely outcome the AFC 5-seed.
Kansas City is +190 to win the AFC West and +600 to head back to the Super Bowl (DraftKings) if you disagree.
Just know that you're betting this team right before a visit from the Eagles this Sunday. You do remember February, right?
Verdict: REAL
Las Vegas Raiders
Overreaction: The Raiders finally have themselves a great quarterback in Geno Smith!!
The Raiders were quietly impressive Sunday, winning on the road 20-13, and the new Chip Kelly offense looked great.
Geno Smith threw 34 times for 362 yards, time and again dialing it up deep and connecting with targets downfield.
The Raiders had nine completions of 20 or more yards, four more than any other NFL team. Las Vegas ranked top two in the league in explosive play rate (26%), air yards per attempt (10.3), and play-action rate (34%) per Ben Solak.
Smith took four sacks and threw an interception, but deftly handled the Patriots' blitzing almost half the time and repeatedly lit up New England's secondary.
Ashton Jeanty struggled in his debut, running 19 times for 38 yards, but Kelly's offense attacked and made life easy on Smith with playaction, finishing the week near the top of the league in pass rate over expectation.
What a welcoming sight for a team that's watched Gardner Minshew, Aidan O'Connell, and Jimmy Garoppolo the last few years. Geno Smith is real, and on Sunday, he was spectacular.
FTN projects the Raiders at 9.3 wins and a 55% shot at the playoffs, including a 24% shot at the AFC West crown.
That makes the Raiders the best futures buy on the market at +250 to make the playoffs (BetMGM) and even +1200 for the division (BetRivers), especially if you like them as home Monday night underdogs against the Chargers in Week 2.
Verdict: REAL
Los Angeles Chargers
Overreaction: The Chargers proved they're for real and headed back to the playoffs!!
The Chargers had one of the more impressive Week 1 victories, winning by a score of 27-21 over the Chiefs, and Justin Herbert was absolutely dealing.
Herbert picked apart Kansas City's defense for 318 yards and three scores, a 91st percentile EPA per play, and added value and the game-clinching play as a runner.
Quentin Johnson, Ladd McConkey, and Keenan Allen all had at least five catches and 68 yards, and at least one of them seemed open all night.
Even more notably, notoriously run-heavy OC Greg Roman skewed super pass-heavy. The Chargers passed 69% of the time on early downs and attacked early and often, with a top-six neutral pass rate over expectation. That continues a trend from late last season, passing more under Roman.
For one game at least, Herbert looked like the MVP contender that was promised. That's great, but let's see more than one game of that Herbert before we crown him.
Rookie RB Omarion Hampton was mostly ineffective with 48 yards on 15 carries, and there are still concerns for this offensive line with Rashawn Slater out, while the defense allowed scores on Kansas City's final five drives.
Beating the Chiefs for the first time in eight tries is nice, but let's see more with the Raiders and Broncos up next before we believe — the first a road Monday night game, the latter on short rest.
The Chargers are +200 to miss the playoffs (BetMGM), but still 45% to miss at FTN, almost a coin flip. That's a good ticket that will likely leave at least a chance to hedge later. This team has to prove it can do this consistently.
Verdict: NOT REAL
Los Angeles Rams
Overreaction: The Rams should be worried about Davante Adams hitting the wall after a quiet debut!!
Adams turns 33 in a few months and is coming off his worst season in two decades, but there was a lot of optimism about the Adams and Puka Nacua pairing entering the season.
Nacua was awesome, catching 10-of-11 targets for 130 yards despite missing a portion of the game hurt, but Adams was relatively quiet. He had one nice 24-yard snag but otherwise caught just 3-of-7 targets for 27 yards.
Those lines are not unrelated, though.
Adams drew coverage from star Houston CB Derek Stingley Jr. — which means Nacua, of course, did not.
It also meant Nacua got to play in Sean McVay's WR-friendly slot position 67% of his snaps, over double his 29% rate a year ago.
That helped Nacua rack up all those easy targets underneath, including the one that clinched the game on a late third down.
The Rams should not have been able to win a game scoring 14 points against a good Texans team with both Matthew Stafford and LT Alaric Jackson coming in with basically no preseason or practice, but the presence of Adams drawing coverage from Nacua helped them steal one.
Verdict: NOT REAL
Miami Dolphins
Overreaction: The offseason vibes were just as bad as they seemed!!
Miami's season opener was, in a word, disastrous.
Tua Tagovailoa was horrendous. He ate three sacks and threw two bad interceptions, never finding any rhythm and getting benched for Zach Wilson late. The offensive line struggled as always, and Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle failed to create explosive plays.
Miami had just 111 yards entering the fourth quarter, under four yards a play, and failed to score until a late TD in garbage time.
And the offense might not have even been the worst part!
Miami is now the punchline to Daniel Jones being the first quarterback of the century to score on every drive of an NFL game. Daniel Jones! The secondary was a disaster, and the defense could not get off the field on third down.
I'm honestly not sure whether the Dolphins should be more worried about the offense or the defense, but this was every bit as bad as it looked.
Verdict: REAL
Minnesota Vikings
Overreaction: Monday night showed J.J. McCarthy is ready to take the Vikings to the next level!!
If you only tuned into the fourth quarter on Monday night, you got quite the show.
The Vikings flipped the script from 11 down to up 10, and McCarthy was brilliant. He threw two touchdowns in the final stanza and ran for another — but all of that was in stark contrast to the rest of the game, when McCarthy could barely complete a pass.
McCarthy finished at 0.45 EPA per play and 61% success rate on 18 early-down passes — MVP-level play. But when the defense knew a pass was coming on late downs, those numbers plummeted to -1.36 EPA per play, including a pick-6, and a paltry 22% success rate.
The Vikings converted 6-of-7 series into first downs when they started with a pass on first down; that dropped to 50% conversion rate when they started with a first-down run.
Jordan Mason got going late with 15 carries for 68 yards, but the Vikings line struggled at times without Christian Darrisaw, and Minnesota was best when it caught Chicago's defense off guard with its passing.
And all of that is okay! Good, even, for effectively a rookie QB making his first ever start on the road in the Monday night spotlight.
But it also showed how far McCarthy and the Vikings still have to go. Monday was a great first step, but now the real work begins.
Verdict: NOT REAL
New England Patriots
Overreaction: So much for all that offseason Patriots optimism and hype!!
The Patriots won only four games last season, but were listed around even-odds to top .500 this season and not far behind to make the playoffs, and they were favored at home in Week 1 before losing a mostly uncompetitive game to the Raiders.
Drake Maye was not great. He was sacked four times, threw an interception, and was the far inferior QB in the game, looking like a young sophomore with much to learn against a defense badly lacking in talent.
Maye threw 46 times as the Pats ranked top five in neutral pass rate, a great vote of confidence, but perhaps not the best way to utilize your young QB with under a season of starts.
The Patriots' secondary was discouraging too, repeatedly getting shredded by Smith and the Raiders. But what else was really to be expected with budding star CB Christian Gonzalez a late scratch?
New England played Las Vegas relatively even on stats despite being on the back-foot and shorthanded all game. The healthy defensive front also shut down the Raiders' rushing attack and got after Smith repeatedly, and Maye showed some flashes.
Winning isn't easy, and it doesn't come overnight. New England should be fine once it gets Gonzalez and Campbell back.
The Patriots are +230 to make the playoffs (Caesars) if you still believe and want to invest before the Dolphins game.
Verdict: NOT REAL
New Orleans Saints
Overreaction: The Saints should be encouraged by their work in the trenches!!
New Orleans was surprisingly competitive in a close one-score loss to the Cardinals, and the Saints competed by winning in the trenches.
The Saints' defensive front played well, mostly shutting down what's usually an outstanding Arizona rushing attack and pressuring Kyler Murray all game. Murray threw two TDs but ate five sacks and was limited to just 5.7 ADOT.
New Orleans also started a first-round left tackle for a third straight season, and the Saints' offensive line more than held their own.
Rattler looked like an actual NFL quarterback for at least one day, and Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson combined for 15 catches.
It still looks like a long season ahead for the Saints, but it's encouraging to see competent coaching and positive play in the trenches.
Verdict: REAL
New York Giants
Overreaction: Out with Russell Wilson — bring on the Jaxson Dart era!!
This wasn't pretty. The Commanders nearly doubled the Giants in yards and yards per play, and Russell Wilson looked terrible.
Wilson completed under half of his 37 passes for just 168 yards, an ugly 4.5 YPA on 5.5 ADOT with a horrible -14 Completion Percentage Over Expected, usually the one that's a reliably positive Russ stat.
That's even more worrisome against a Washington defense that likely ends up in the bottom-10 in the league.
The Giants became the first team since the 1942 Lions to go three straight openers without a touchdown. Detroit was shut out in those three games, while the Giants were "only" outscored 89-12 in theirs.
Still, is that really the situation you want to drop a rookie QB into?
New York badly missed stud LT Andrew Thomas, a late injury scratch, and Wilson had no time to throw and zero run game to speak of. Even if Wilson is this bad, Jameis Winston is the better immediate option. Let the veterans struggle under pressure rather than throwing Dart to the wolves with zero chance of early success.
Verdict: NOT REAL
New York Jets
Overreaction: The Jets might have an actual NFL offense — and coaching staff!!
The Jets were the better team Sunday, outgaining Pittsburgh by 127 yards in an unlucky two-point loss. That matters little long-term compared to the good vibes that came out of the game.
Aaron Glenn's guys competed from the jump, led at halftime, and probably would've won if not for a few special teams plays that went Pittsburgh's way.
The Jets played organized football and had a clear plan on offense under new OC Tanner Engstrand: run the football and keep things easy for Justin Fields.
New York put up almost 400 yards on a great Steelers defense, recording its best success rate since the middle of the 2022 season, and the Jets did it by running the football.
They ran on 58% of their plays, by far the most of any team in Week 1 and 21% over expectation, which would've ranked top 10 among all NFL games last season.
Breece Hall ran 19 times for 107 yards, and Fields was terrific as a runner with 12 rushes for 48 yards and two scores.
The Jets stayed ahead of the chains and played with an identity and a plan. What a concept!
Verdict: REAL
Philadelphia Eagles
Overreaction: The champs have some serious reason for concern already!!
The Eagles are 1-0 after a 24-20 victory, but it wasn't pretty.
Jalen Hurts completed 19-of-23 passes, but just one of those was to A.J. Brown and almost everything was short and wide.
Hurts finished with a shockingly low 4.4 ADOT and just 4.6 YPA outside of one 51-yard bomb to Jahan Dotson. Brown didn't even see a target until the final two minutes, struggling to separate with his hamstring injury.
Hurts was outstanding, scrambling for 6.6 EPA, but the entire rest of Philly's offense added just 2.8 EPA on 50 plays.
Saquon Barkley was mostly contained at 3.3 YPC and just a 33% success rate on his runs.
The Eagles gained only one new first down on their first-down plays — equal to the Dolphins and ahead of only the Titans, for reference.
That's a rough first showing for new OC Kevin Patullo, and it's not like the defense was great either. CB Adoree Jackson was targeted early and often, and the line sorely missed Jalen Carter after his ejection.
A win is a win, but it's clear Philadelphia has plenty to work on going forward.
Verdict: REAL
Pittsburgh Steelers
Overreaction: Aaron Rodgers is healthy again and ready to make an MVP push!!
Rodgers was 22-of-30 for 244 yards in his Pittsburgh debut, and he leads the league with four touchdown passes against his former team.
Rodgers was terrific on play-action for Arthur Smith, and actually played within the system and let his guys make plays.
But would you believe Rodgers wasn't even the best quarterback in this game by EPA per play?
Justin Fields graded out better, and Rodgers took four sacks and had just a 4.4 ADOT, a third-percentile game, relying on a few lucky completions and some big YAC from D.K. Metcalf and others.
Translation: Rodgers was mostly a game manager, basically Ryan Tannehill with a bigger social media platform. That can work! Tannehill won 11 and 12 games for Arthur Smith's offense.
But it doesn't make him an MVP candidate, and the Steelers still needed their usual goofy bounces, a fumbled Jets kickoff, and a late 60-yard field goal to steal a win over a Jets offense that had a surprising amount of success against this ballyhooed defense.
R-E-L-A-X. It's a long season, and Rodgers hasn't proved anything yet.
Verdict: NOT REAL
San Francisco 49ers
Overreaction: This was a huge win for San Francisco — and exactly the sort of game the 49ers lost last season!!
I don't think the 49ers win this game a year ago, and I'm not sure they win Sunday without experiencing the lows of last season either.
This felt like one of those games where everything goes wrong.
San Francisco had drives of 14, 12, 14, and 11 plays but failed to score on two of them thanks to blocked and missed field goals.
The 49ers kicking game was so bad that Josh Moody was cut Tuesday, and it looked like special teams would be San Fran's downfall again under Kyle Shanahan, along with another ugly 2-of-5 showing in the red zone.
Both George Kittle and Jauan Jennings left hurt — apparently Brock Purdy is hurt too — but Purdy flung the ball all over the field, displaying the arm and confidence he developed last season on a shorthanded team.
Finally, with the clock ticking down, Purdy escaped the pocket, bought time, and trusted deep backup TE Jake Tonges to go up and beat Riq Woolen one-on-one for the winning score.
Was that a 50-50 ball that could've been an interception and cost the 49ers at least a shot at overtime? Absolutely. Did Purdy have a few other passes like that, and is it worrisome that San Francisco dominated yardage again 384-230 but still almost lost? For sure.
But with Kittle, Jennings, and Aiyuk out and Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams looking rusty at best, on the road in a hostile Seattle environment, Purdy had every reason to lose and absolutely would've lost this game last season.
But the 49ers won. And now they get the Saints and Jaguars two of the next three weeks to get healthy and right.
Verdict: REAL
Seattle Seahawks
Overreaction: We should already be pretty worried about Sam Darnold and Kenneth Walker!!
Seattle led 13-10 late and nearly beat the 49ers before a late touchdown, but the underlying metrics show that the Seahawks got dominated.
San Francisco missed two field goals, Seattle stole one themselves before the half, and the Seahawks also got a touchdown after a failed 4th-and-goal bailout penalty.
This could have been a win, but it could have just as easily been a demoralizing 23-6 loss, and Klint Kubiak's offense is to blame.
Sam Darnold's numbers are relatively tame — 16-of-23, 150 yards, no scores or turnovers — but his late strip sack cost Seattle the game, and it's clear the coaching staff doesn't trust him or this offensive line, with a barrage of quick sideways and backwards passes and a 51% neutral pass rate, third-lowest of any team on the weekend.
The run game was also ineffective, particularly Kenneth Walker. Walker and Zach Charbonnet mostly rotated all game, but Walker ran 10 times for only 20 yards and didn't show any burst.
Seattle's defense was flying around the field Sunday and playing with attitude like Mike Macdonald wants, but the Seahawks need to find some answers offensively in a bad way.
Verdict: REAL
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Overreaction: The Bucs offense proved it will be just fine under new OC Josh Grizzard!!
For all the Tampa Bay injury concerns entering the season — notably Tristan Wirfs and Chris Godwin out indefinitely — the Bucs did what four-time defending division champs do. They went on the road, came through late, and beat their division rival, 23-20.
Baker Mayfield threw three TDs, two of them to rookie Emeka Egbuka, including the game-winner, and the Bucs offense seemed to do just enough.
Tampa still has plenty to prove, though.
Mayfield was super inconsistent, completing barely half his passes at 17-of-32. He had an especially poor start and was forced to scramble too often, with the line struggling against a team with very little pass rush.
The Bucs also struggled to find any run game, an area that made a huge leap under Liam Coen last season.
The Bucs stole an undeserved win and are clear NFC South favorites now. That's all that counts, but this offense still has a way to go.
Verdict: NOT REAL
Tennessee Titans
Overreaction: Cam Ward is a bust, Brian Callahan is a fraud, everything is awful!!
It was a rough debut for Cam Ward and the Titans offense. Tennessee recorded only 133 yards on a paltry 2.4 yards per play.
The Titans gained only seven first downs all game and were the only team in the league to fail to gain one on a first-down play. They went 2-of-14 on third down and 0-for-2 in the red zone, losing by eight against an opponent that had four turnovers and mostly no-showed on offense.
Cam Ward's numbers were grim. He completed just 12-of-28 passes, an awful 43% completion rate, for only 112 yards, just 4.0 YPA.
Ward was sacked six times — twice in a row after a Broncos second-half turnover, knocking Tennessee fully out of field goal range — and he lost a fumble and finished the game at -0.43 EPA per play.
And if that's not bad enough, apparently Brian Callahan doesn't know what counts as being down inbounds on a catch.
The Callahan thing is pretty indefensible — if you're going to be that wrong, at least keep your mouth shut — but Ward wasn't as bad as he looked. He put a lot of his throws on his receivers but got no help from the worst skill position group in the league, and he didn't get much help from his play callers or protection either.
It was always going to be tough debuting on the road against this nasty Denver defense. Ward made some nice throws and flashed plenty enough potential to be excited going forward.
Callahan, on the other hand…
Verdict: NOT REAL
Washington Commanders
Overreaction: Deebo Samuel is back and looks like a huge pickup for the Commanders!!
Deebo Samuel was outstanding in his Washington debut.
Samuel had eight touches for 96 yards with the offense, scoring a touchdown on a run and even returning a kick.
He was super involved in Washington's attack from the jump, and looked spry and healthy again after battling illness much of last season.
A healthy Deebo is a perfect weapon in this Kliff Kingsbury attack, which prefers to get the ball out quickly to its playmakers on the perimeter and let them do the rest.
He needs to stay healthy, but Samuel's debut alongside rookie RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt's 10 carries for 82 yards were very encouraging additions.
Verdict: REAL
Brandon's futures bets made in this article
- Bears to Win the NFC North +1300 (0.5 units)
- Raiders to Make the Playoffs +250 (0.5 units)
- Raiders to Win the AFC West +1200 (0.25 units)
- Chargers to Miss the Playoffs +200 (0.5 units)
- Ravens to Win the AFC North -135 (1 unit)
- Ravens to be the AFC 1-seed +550 (0.25 units)
- Ravens Most Wins +900 (0.5 units)
