Welcome back, everyone. Let's get ready for Week 2. Last week saw plenty of comebacks, lots of unders, a tough week for the public and a lot more.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 2 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Tuesday, Sept. 9, at 6 p.m. ET. Credit to Bet Labs and SDQL for a lot of the betting queries.
Top NFL Things To Know
Not Our Best
Public Struggle
The betting public had a rough start to the NFL season. For this we go to Bet Labs, which has betting percentages for every game and for the public, we point to teams that get 51% of more of the tickets on the spread.
In Week 1, the betting public went 3-13 ATS, with the five teams to close as the favorite going 0-5 ATS. The bigger the bet pct, the worse it got — teams with 60%+ of tickets went 1-10 ATS in Week 1.
The 3-13 ATS mark in Week 1 is the worst for any single NFL week since Week 5 of the 2022 season (also 3-13 ATS) and the worst Week 1 in the 22-year history of our database.
New Era
Chiefs Home Dogs
In Patrick Mahomes’ 68 career home starts, he has closed as an underdog just once, back in 2022 against the Bills. KC was +2.5 in Buffalo during the regular season and lost 24-20. In fact, he’s only closed -1.5 or shorter three times at home – all three games have come vs. the Bills.
Chalk Remains
Favorites Continue Pace
We had some chaotic line movement in Week 1, but if you focus on just the opening line, favorites went 13-3 SU to open the season … again. They went 13-3 SU last year, too, for a 26-6 SU mark for Week 1 favorites the last two years.
We are also just coming off a regular season to remember for the favorites. The best ATS season from a profit/ROI POV since 2017. Overall, favorites ended 2024, 195-77 SU (71.7%), the 3rd-best season since 1980.
In Week 1, road favorites went 5-1 SU. The one loss? The Ravens. Overall, road favorites are 85-29 SU (75%) since the start of last season.
The Bounce Back
Lions Face Ben Johnson
Jared Goff and Dan Campbell are 14-12-1 SU, 19-8 ATS off a SU loss as a duo, but they’ve won and covered ten in a row dating back to November of 2022.
Since the beginning of the 2023 season, the Lions are 7-0 SU/ATS after a loss, the only undefeated team in the NFL.
Down The Tube
Unders Cash
Week 1 was all about unders, even if it ended with some overs on Sunday and Monday Night Football.
Unders ended the week at 12-4, tied for the lowest mark for any season since 2000. But if you look at the last 20 years, the other Week 1s in contention for the best under star were 2023, 2010 and 2006. In those three years, the under went 17-29-2 in Week 2, with the under finishing above .500 in Week 2 in none of those three years.
Desperate Times
After Blowing Big Leads
The Bears and Ravens both blew 10+ point leads in Week 1. Teams to blow a 10+ pt lead in Week 1 are 30-19 SU and 29-19-1 ATS in Week 2 since 1990. Within the first four weeks of the regular season, those desperate teams coming off blowing their previous games see their next game go 83-57-4 (59%) to the over, going over by almost 4 PPG.
New Home
Another Streak Breaker?
Titans finally covered the spread last week after a 2-15 ATS season last year, the worst we’ve seen for any team in modern era. Titans haven’t covered the spread at home though since November of 2024, losing 8 straight ATS. That is the longest home ATS losing streak for any team since the Titans back in 2013-14 (lost 10 straight at home ATS).
Levels To This
Jets Big Home Dog
If the Jets close +7 or higher at home vs. the Bills this week, this system triggers. Home dogs of 7 pts or more are 18-1-2 ATS in the first 9 games of the regular season since 2022 and 37-10-2 ATS since 2020.
Every NFL Game For Week 2
 |   |   |   |  |  |   |   |  |   |   |   |   | |   |   |   |
➤No head coach is better at covering early than Matt LaFleur. The Packers are 16-3 ATS within their first 3 games of the season since 2019, best of any team in the NFL – that mark includes 8-0 ATS at home in Lambeau Field.
LaFleur is 16-6 ATS in September, but he is 8-1 ATS on the road and 8-3 ATS at home (0-2 ATS in neutral site games).
➤In 2025, Commanders opened the season with a victory after having a large futures leap from 2024 to 2025, going from 150-1 last year to 18-1 to win it all this year. Since 2000, we’ve only seen four teams have a move from 150-1 to 20-1 or shorter year-to-year (‘25 WAS, ‘24 HOU, ‘23 NYJ, ‘22 CIN), and only the Texans in 2024 started 2-0 SU – something the Commanders can do this week.
➤No sacks taken by Jordan Love in Week 1 vs. Lions – same can be said for a few teams like the Jaguars and Cowboys – teams to take no sacks in Week 1 are 46-32-1 ATS (59%) in Week 2 since 2003, including 15-4 ATS since 2018.
➤Commanders had 12 penalties in Week 1 vs. Giants, a bit sloppy overall. In the Wild Card era, teams to have 10+ penalties in Week 1 and come away with the win are just 28-39 ATS (42%) in Week 2 – includes the Jaguars as well.
➤Commanders have played five night games with Jayden Daniels as their starting QB; they are 4-1 SU and ATS in those games, covering the spread by 7.9 PPG. His only loss though, also came on short rest, playing on Thursday Night Football.
➤Jordan Love has dominated second halves. In his career, he is 26-11 (70%) against the second-half spread – including 25-11 since 2023, which is the best mark for any QB in the NFL. In the first seven weeks of the regular season, he is 10-2 2H ATS after cashing in Week 1.
➤Josh Jacobs has scored a TD in ten consecutive games for the Packers, a franchise record he already set when he hit his 9th in a row.
➤Dating back to last season, Trevor Lawrence has now covered the spread in five straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL – four of those five games have been at home for Jacksonville.
➤Trevor Lawrence is 8-21 SU and 14-15 ATS on the road. On the moneyline, he's lost a $100 bettor $1,219 on the road in his career. Of the 100 QBs who have made a start since 2021, Lawrence is the least profitable QB on the moneyline on the road.
➤Jaguars had issues forcing turnovers last year. Not in Week 1, getting 3 from the Panthers. The issue has been stringing these games together. Jacksonville is 2-9 SU in their last 11 games directly after forcing at least one turnover on defense.
➤After winning but not covering last week, Joe Burrow is now 3-8 ATS in the first two games of the regular season – he is 43-22-1 ATS in game 3 or later. Burrow’s 3-8 ATS mark is the worst of 67 QBs since he was drafted. When Burrow is listed as a favorite within the first two games, the Bengals are 0-6 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 11 PPG. Within the first three games, Burrow is 1-7-1 ATS as a favorite.
It hasn’t been easy for Cincinnati. They have trailed in all 12 Week 1 and 2 games since 2019 – not one where they led wire-to-wire.
➤Burrow threw for just 113 passing yards against the Browns – a theme for Burrow when he faces Cleveland, struggles on the offensive side. In his career, Burrow is 7-2 ATS in his next start after facing the Browns, covering the spread by 4.4 PPG – Burrow is 14-9-1 ATS after facing the AFC North.
➤Against bad rush defenses, Burrow has taken advantage and helped Cincinnati win. The Bengals are 33-15-1 ATS vs. rush def. who allow 100+ rush yds/game with Burrow, including 22-8-1 ATS since 2022.
➤The player or the defense? We’ll see. In Week 1, Chase Brown led all running backs in missed tackles forced on carries with 7 against the Browns.
➤Cowboys have beaten the Giants outright in 8 straight meetings. Going back to the start of the 2017 season, the Cowboys are 15-1 SU vs. the Giants, with their only loss coming back in January of 2021 behind Andy Dalton against Daniel Jones. Giants haven’t won in Dallas since 2016, 8 straight road losses.
��Giants and Commanders game went under the total last week – not something new for New York. Every year since 2020, the Giants have been over .500 to the under, overall they are 57-28-2 (67%) to the under – not only the best mark in the NFL, but more than double the next-closest ROI.
Best ROI to Under – Teams Since 2020
Giants 28.2% (57-28-2)
Falcons 12.9% (50-35)
Saints 11.9% (51-36)
In the first two months of the regular season (Sept-Oct), the under is 15-1 in Giants home games since 2021, 21-2 since 2019 and 26-4 since 2017.
➤Dak Prescott is 13-2 SU and 10-5 ATS vs. the Giants. He started his career 0-2 SU vs. New York (both Eli Manning starts) and has won 13 consecutive starts against them since.
➤Prescott has excelled in his career against NFC East foes. He is now 30-12 ATS vs. the NFC East, covering the spread by almost 6.7 PPG. Since 2003, here are the most profitable QBs ATS vs. Division Foes:
Aaron Rodgers: 57-35 ATS
Dak Prescott: 30-12 ATS
Ben Roethlisberger: 54-38-3 ATS
Tom Brady: 63-47-5 ATS
➤A little extra rest hasn’t been the best thing for teams in Week 2 coming off a week night opener in Week 1. The Cowboys played last Thursday and now play Sunday vs. Giants, who are on normal rest. Last 20 years, teams on 9+ days rest, facing a team on 8 days rest or less in Week 2 are 16-26-2 (38%) against the first half spread.
➤No early hangover. In Dak’s career, he is 6-1 ATS in November or earlier the week after facing the Eagles.
➤Dak does well vs. bad teams. He's 32-16-2 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU and 19-35 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU. His 32-16-2 ATS mark is 2nd-best of 239 QBs last 20 years, behind only Tom Brady.
➤After a bad Giants offensive performance last week, Russell Wilson gets the start again. In his career, he is just 8-16-1 ATS in the first two games of the regular season, losing 6 in a row ATS in that spot.
➤Starting fast hasn’t been on the Giants agenda. They are 4-13 ATS in the first two games of the regular season since 2017, worst mark of any team in the NFL.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤Jared Goff and Dan Campbell are 14-12-1 SU, 19-8 ATS off of a SU loss as a duo, but they’ve won and covered ten in a row dating back to November of 2022.
➤Goff was sacked four times against the Packers in Week 1. He is 11-5 ATS in his career the game after being sacked 4+ times, covering the spread by over a FG per game.
➤Lions failed to get the rushing attack going at all against the Packers with just 46 yds on 22 carries. Under Goff and Campbell, Detroit is 10-4-1 SU after rushing for fewer than 100 yds as a team, including going 10-1 SU in this spot in their last 11 games dating back to mid-2021.
➤Since 2020, the Bears are now 7-24 SU vs. the NFC North. In that span, only the Jets have fewer SU wins vs. their own division (6) than Chicago does.
➤Overall, the road has been a tough place for Chicago as of late. In road games vs. any team, the Bears are 4-21 SU since 2022, which is tied with the Panthers for the fewest road wins in that span. Chicago hasn’t won a September road game outright since 2020.
➤The Lions defense didn’t have a single sack against the Packers in Week 1 and also didn’t have a sack against the Commanders in last year’s playoff game – this is the first time since October of 2022 that Detroit hasn’t had a defensive sack in consecutive games.
➤Indoor games have always been a good thing for Jared Goff in Detroit and even late L.A. days. Since 2019, he is 41-18-1 ATS in indoor games, over .500 ATS each season, covering by just under 4 PPG with an ATS ROI of +32% in those 60 games.
➤Bears have had issues scoring on the road recently. In the last two seasons, they are 5-12 to their team total over when playing on the road. In comparison, they are 12-6 to their team total over in their home games in that span.
➤”You won’t have to punt much” – Caleb Williams. A quote Caleb said last year and it has been close between him and Bears punter Tory Taylor.
Tory Taylor: 4,177 total punt yds (3,577 net punt yds)
Caleb Williams: 3,751 pass yds
➤The Bears have played three games on short rest with Caleb Williams as their starting QB – Chicago is 0-3 SU in those games, averaging just 13.3 PPG in those matchups.
➤Going east has’t been a problem for the Rams under McVay. They are 17-8-2 SU and 18-9 ATS playing on the road on the east coast, including 6-2-1 ATS last two seasons. When the Rams under McVay go from PST to EST to play a road game, they are 13-4-2 ATS, covering the number by 5.1 PPG. Only Jim Harbaugh’s 10-1 ATS mark is better for any head coach since 2003.
➤There have been 29 No. 1 pick QBs since the merger in 1970. In their 1st start, they are 5-23-1 SU, 9-20 ATS after Cam Ward lost but covered vs. Broncos last week. The question is what has happened in their second start? Just as bad, 5-23 SU and 11-15-2 ATS – even at home, just 3-11 SU.
➤With their cover last week, the Rams actually own the longest active ATS winning streak in the NFL at four games dating back to last season.
➤Sean McVay is now 7-2 ATS in Week 1s, but overall he is 16-8-1 ATS in the first 3 games of the regular season, the 4th-best mark of any coach last 20 years– Marvin Lewis, Matt LaFleur, Sean McDermott, McVay.
➤Rams have started slow lately, going 5-15 against the first quarter spread since the start of last season, worst mark of any team in the NFL.
➤In Cam Ward’s first start, he took six sacks and only had 112 passing yards – not the best start to a career. He joined just 2023 Clayton Tune and 2021 Justin Fields as only QBs with 6+ sacks and 112 pass yds or less in their first start.
➤Titans had 13 penalties and went 2-15 on 3rd and 4th downs last week. The value may have flipped this week though. Last 20 years, teams coming off a game where they have two or fewer third down conversions and 10 or more penalties are 11-23 SU, but 22-11-1 ATS when listed as an underdog in their next game.
➤McVay and Stafford have very much played their role as a duo with the Rams, they are 31-9 SU when listed as favorites and only 9-16 SU as underdogs.
➤McVay is one of a few coaches who usually win games when the line moves towards them (ex. -5 to -7). McVay is 57-21 SU and 44-31-3 ATS when the line moves towards his teams, that ATS mark is 2nd of 85 coaches since he entered the league (behind only Dan Campbell). When he’s a favorite in this spot, the Rams are 48-12 SU, the 2nd-best SU mark for any coach since 2003, behind only Bill Belichick.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel are 4-0 SU and ATS against the Patriots, covering the spread by 7.9 PPG. Overall, Tua himself is 7-0 SU and ATS in his career vs. the Patriots, he is 27-29-1 ATS vs. all other teams.
➤Drake Maye has played in 14 NFL games in his career so far – he has started 13 of them and in only 11 of his starts has he played into the second half. In those 11 games, the Patriots are 1-10 SU and 4-7 ATS.
➤When it comes to easy schedules, especially early in the season, the Patriots came in at the 3rd-easiest entering Week 1. Of the top-5 easiest, Patriots were the lone team to lose.
Easiest Schedules in September
1 – Commanders – Won
2 – Steelers – Won
3 – Patriots – Lost
4 – 49ers – Won
5 – Bengals – Won
Patriots were the first team since division realignment in 2002 to see their win total jump 4+ games year-to-year from BOTH their previous win total AND previous games won. They are now off to a 0-1 SU start to the season.
➤Mission stay away. Dolphins scored zero points in the first half last week. Teams to go scoreless in the first, first half of the season and are then be listed as favorites in Week 2 are 5-10 ATS last 20 years, including the under going 11-4 in those Week 2 games.
➤Teams to lose in Week 1 by 21 pts or more and then be listed as a favorite in Week 2 are 5-12-2 ATS since 2005, including 0-3 ATS since 2022.
➤The Patriots issues in the red zone crept up again last week, finishing 1-for-3 (33.3%). Last season, they finished at 46.8% in the red zone on offense, which was the 3rd-worst mark in the NFL.
➤Since Tom Brady left for Tampa Bay, the Patriots have been listed as underdogs a total of 52 times in five seasons (20-30-2 ATS) and they are .500 ATS or worse in all five years as a dog. Between 2004 and 2019, Brady in New England was listed as an underdog a total of 30 times in 16 seasons (19-10-1 ATS).
➤Since the start of 2022, the Patriots are 3-30 SU and 5-27-1 ATS when trailing by 7 points or more at any point; both are the worst marks in the NFL.
➤The “1P ET Dolphins home kick theory” – it's worked lately, 43-21 SU (67%) last decade, including 20-5 SU with Tua in that spot. Outside that window, Miami is just 8-8 SU at home.
➤Sacks get in the way of winning. Nobody can say that more than the Patriots. The Patriots have lost 15 consecutive games outright when allowing 4+ sacks on their QB, including 0-14 SU since the start of 2023.
➤49ers covered the spread vs. Seahawks last week. San Francisco hasn’t covered the spread in consecutive games since December of 2023, losing ATS seven times after an ATS win since that date.
➤If the 49ers close as 6+ point favorites against the Saints, they will fit this trend. Favorites of 6+ points, who failed to make the playoffs the previous season, are 2-11 ATS in the first four games of the regular season the following year over the last three seasons. Since 2010, teams that fit this trend are 39-54 ATS (42%).
➤Brock Purdy has made 20 career road/neutral starts, four of those have come in Seattle, where he extended his streak to 4-0 SU/ATS last week against the Seahawks. In his other 16 road games, Purdy is just 5-11 ATS, including 0-6 ATS since his Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs in 2023-24.
➤Brock Purdy is a magician. The NFL has a stat called “Completion Percentage Above Expectation”, which is “A passer’s actual completion percentage compared to their Expected Completion Percentage.”
➤In Week 1, Purdy’s +12.7% was 2nd in NFL behind Hurts. In 2024, it was +3%, for 7th in the NFL, in 2023 it was +3.5%, for 5th in the NFL. Purdy continues to make plays to keep 49ers in games.
➤Must be about the unit and the competition, but Mac Jones 26 starts away from home, on the road or neutral site, and he is 6-3-1 ATS as a favorite and 4-12 ATS as an underdog
➤If the 49ers are forced to go to a backup from Purdy, Kyle Shanahan has done a pretty good job at getting wins with the backup, going 26-23 SU/ATS with a backup QB while with the 49ers. When that backup is still listed as the favorite, SF is 17-9 SU and 14-12 ATS in those games under Shanahan.
➤Tyler Shough was selected with 40th pick in 1st round, the Saints’ highest-drafted QB since they took Archie Manning second overall in 1971 – the question is, when will he get his chance. Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener are a combined 0-8 SU as NFL starting QBs. Rattler is 1-6 ATS as a starter, his one cover came with the Saints as a 14.5-pt underdog.
➤The Saints have had issues at home in the Superdome lately. Since 2018, they are 25-37 ATS at home, .500 ATS or worse all 7 seasons, the 2nd-worst ATS mark at home in the NFL ahead of just the Falcons.
➤Since the start of 2023, the Saints have played 18 games where they trailed entering the 4th quarter. They are 0-18 SU and 2-16 ATS (full game) in those situations, the only winless team SU in the NFL. Their last win came in Week 1 of 2022. Overall, Saints have lost 23 straight games when trailing entering the 4th, last win was Week 1 of 2022. Since the start of 2020 season, New Orleans is 2-33 SU and 5-30 ATS in this spot.
➤49ers were the 4th team to jump 4+ wins between their previous year's victories and their next year's win total since 2002. The previous three teams all started 2-0 SU.
2025 49ers, 6 to 10
2024 Chargers, 5 to 9 (won 11 games)
2021 Broncos, 5 to 9 (won 7 games)
2021 49ers, 6 to 10.5 (won 10 games)
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤Popularity was once a part of the Bills allure, at least from a betting standpoint. In 2023 and 2024 (incl. playoffs), here are the most games as the public side (51% or spread bets or more) for teams and QBs:
1. Bills 25, 2. Rams 27, 3. Ravens 26, 4. 49ers 26
1. Josh 35, 2. Mahomes 25, 3. Stafford 25, 4. Lamar 25
In Week 1, the Bills closed with 38% of tickets vs. Ravens.
In Week 2, the Jets are currently the public side.
Josh Allen hasn’t closed with under 50% of spread bets in consecutive games since December of 2021.
➤Home underdogs of 7 pts or more, early season (games 1-9) cover 59% of games over the last 20 years. Those teams are 18-1-2 ATS last 3 years and 37-10-2 ATS since 2020.
➤Jets and Steelers combined to score 66 points in Week 1 after having a total below 40 in the game. In the last 20 years, teams to see their Week 1 game combine to have more than 65 pts, with a O/U below 40, went 24-13 ATS in their next game – market having a tough time adjusting to the offense for that team.
➤Bills closed as home underdogs during the regular season for the first time since January of 2021 last week. This week, a big road favorite. Teams to go from a home dog to a favorite of 7 pts or more, have struggled with the role change, going 32-46-1 ATS since 2003, including 13-22 ATS since 2018.
➤Bills are coming off a massive comeback, beating the Ravens while trailing by 15 pts with 4 minutes left in regulation. Over the last decade, teams to lead a comeback down 14+ pts in their previous game, are just 55-70 SU, 53-72-1 ATS in their next game, which includes 23-39 ATS when having to play on the road.
➤Aaron Glenn is officially 1-0 ATS. There have now been eight different Jets coaches since 2000, and none have been above .500 ATS with New York. The last coach above .500 ATS with the Jets was Al Groh in 2000 at 8-7-1 ATS.
➤Justin Fields has made 42 starts in his NFL career. He is 12-30 SU in those starts. When his opponent scores more than 20 pts, Fields’ teams are 0-22 SU (6-15-1 ATS), when they score 20 pts or less Fields is 12-8 SU (11-9 ATS).
➤Sean McDermott is a coach who tends to start hot. Buffalo is 13-4 SU in September since 2020.
➤As a favorite of 7 pts or more, Josh Allen is 35-5 SU, but just 19-18-3 ATS in his career. Three of those 5 losses have come on the road, two of which were against the AFC East.
➤Aaron Rodgers had a heck of a Week 1. He threw 4 TD passes in Week 1 for just the second time in his career, doing so back in 2020. Where Rodgers saw major success was in play action, where he went 8-10 for 101 yds, 3 TDs and 0 INT, including going 9-9 on screens vs. Jets.
➤After Week 1, Rodgers leads the NFL in passing TDs, a good start out of the 3-year hole. Since Big Ben retired at the end of 2021, Pittsburgh’s passing attack has been MIA.
Between 2022-24:
Pass TD: 46 (32nd)
Pass yds: 9,838 (27th)
Pass rtg: 85.7 (21st)
Y/A: 6.2 (24th)
➤Since 2022, when Pittsburgh averages fewer than 5 yards per attempt in any game, they are 1-10 SU. When they average at least 5 yards per attempt, they are 29-14 SU.
➤The Bet Labs database goes back to 2003 – in that span, the most profitable QB against the spread in Week 2 is Aaron Rodgers, who is 11-4-1 ATS, covering six in a row since 2018.
➤Steelers have started slow in the first quarter since the start of last season, going 5-14 against the first quarter spread, including losing 9-7 to the Jets in Week 1.
➤Steelers may have won last week, but their defense got torched, allowing 32 pts vs. the Jets. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 28-11-1 ATS (72%) the week after allowing 30+ pts on the defensive side of the ball, including 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games in the spot.
➤Dating back to last season, the Seahawks have lost 5 consecutive games against the spread, including in Week 1 vs. the 49ers, which is the longest active ATS losing streak for any NFL team.
➤The once vaunted 12th man hasn’t shown up against the spread lately. Since the start of 2023, Seattle is 5-13 ATS at home and 9-6-2 ATS on the road.
➤Another Steelers one-score win. 1-0 this season, 6-4 SU last season – They’ve been over .500 SU in one-score games for 9 straight years and .500 SU or better in 10 consecutive seasons.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤During the 2024 NFL season, we only had 18 double-digit favorites across every game – the fewest in any season since 1982 and 1983. In 2023, there were 31, in 2022, 30 and back in 2021 there was 50 double-digit favorites. Baltimore is our first in 2025.
We’ve only seen 20 teams since 2003 close as a double-digit favorite within their own division in the first two games of the regular season – those teams are 8-12 ATS. The favorites of 11+ are 5-3 ATS, while the -10 and -10.5s are 3-9 ATS in this scenario.
➤Ravens will be just the 18th team since 1999 to be a double-digit favorite in Week 2 after losing Week 1 outright, those teams are 5-12 ATS. In general, double-digit favorites in division are cashing at a 45% ATS rate since 2003 and in the AFC North that is 15-22 ATS in that span.
➤Lamar Jackson has closed as a double-digit favorite 16 times as a starting QB, his teams are 15-1 SU and 10-6 ATS, including 14-0 SU during the regular season. Lamar is 4-1 ATS as a big favorite when facing the AFC North, covering the spread by 11.9 PPG.
➤Lamar is 20-4 SU and 13-11 ATS after an outright loss in his career. He’s been a double-digit favorite three times off of a SU loss, winning by 21, 24 and 14 pts. Last week, the Ravens defense allowed 41 pts. In Lamar’s career, Baltimore is 6-0 SU (2-3-1 ATS) game after allowing 35 pts or more.
➤The Browns have lost 7 consecutive games ATS dating back to last season, the longest ATS losing streak currently in the NFL.
➤The Ravens own the longest active streak as a betting favorite with this week's streak being up to 20 games. Their last game as an underdog came back in Week 1 of last season vs. Chiefs.
➤It isn’t easy to come back after blowing a big lead. Last 20 years, teams are 21-34 SU the week after blowing a 14+ pt lead within the first four games of the regular season. Even when they are listed as a favorite in their next game, just 12-14 SU.
➤Ravens have been able to bounce back better than others. Since 2020, Baltimore is 8-3 SU/ATS the week after losing a game they led by 10+ pts at any point.
➤After the cover last week, Browns are 11-20 ATS vs. AFC North under head coach Kevin Stefanski. Of 156 head coaches since 2003 to coach in at least one divisional game, Stefanski is the least profitable ATS. Where the Browns have struggled most in this spot is on the road, where he is 3-12 ATS vs. the AFC North.
➤Browns team total in Week 1 was 21 – they scored 16 pts. They are now 15-3 to their team total under since the start of last season. A big difference from 2023, where they went 12-5 to their team total over, which was also the best mark in the NFL.
➤Teams after facing Buffalo since Josh Allen’s 1st season as a full-time starter in 2019 are 42-58 SU (42%), the worst win pct in the NFL.
➤Welcome back to the top, Denver Broncos. The Broncos had the best defense in the NFL last year from an EPA/play perspective and that continued into Week 1 this year. The 2nd-best defense of the group? The Colts, who faced the Dolphins.
➤In Daniel Jones’ career, the under is 25-10-1 (71%) in his 36 home starts, going under the total by 4.4 PPG, including the under cashing in his home debut vs. Dolphins last week.
➤To give some perspective on what Daniel Jones did last week – minimum 20 completions, it was the 4th-best passer rating for any game last 5 years for Indy. Jones’ 75.9% completion pct going 22-29 is the highest completion pct for a Colts QB with at least 29 attempts since Philip Rivers in 2020.
The over/under in this game opened at 44.5 and has dropped two pts in early week betting down to 42.5.
➤Teams to win in Week 1 by 21+ pts and then be listed as an underdog in Week 2 are 6-12-2 ATS dating back to 2003, with only five teams closing as a home underdog in Week 2 the week after winning by 21+ – those teams are 1-4 SU/ATS, with the Vikings actually winning in this spot last year.
➤Bo NIx and the Broncos may have come short ATS last week, failing to cover the spread by just a half point, but in Bo Nix’s 19 career starts, he has covered a 6-pt teaser 17 times, almost always keeping it close with Denver’s stout defense.
➤Nix started his career 11-3 ATS in his first fourteen starts, including undefeated ATS as a favorite. In his last 5 starts, Nix is now 1-4 ATS, losing three straight road starts both SU and ATS.
➤Common theme to recent Colts seasons. Under Shane Steichen, Indy is 16-8 ATS in September, October and November and 3-8 ATS in December or later. Steichen is tied with Dan Campbell more most ATS convers in November or earlier since the start of 2023.
➤In the first four games of the regular season, when a team that was favored by more than a TD in their previous game fails to cover the spread, they are 53-34-1 ATS (61%) in their next game – this includes the Eagles as well this week.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤The Cardinals have struggled with the Panthers recently, going 1-6 SU/ATS since 2015. The over is 6-1 in those 7 matchups as well.
➤Even with the lightning delay, the Panthers scored just 3 points in the first quarter last week. Bryce Young in his 29 career starts is 10-19 against the first half spread, including 4-10 1H ATS on the road (1-9 1H ATS L10 road games). Of 82 QBs since Bryce was drafted, his 10-19 1H ATS mark is the worst in the NFL.
➤Last week became an exception to the recent Cardinal rule. Since 2022, the Cardinals were 0-11 SU in games where they allowed 4+ sacks, the only winless team in the NFL in that span. They allowed 5 sacks to the Saints and won last week. Since 2022, they were 1-20 SU when allowing 3+ sacks; now they are 2-20.
➤Comebacks haven’t been a part of the Panthers' identity in recent years. Carolina has lost 63 consecutive games outright when trailing by more than one possession (9 pts or more) at any point in the game. Their last win came in October of 2018, when Cam Newton led a comeback against Carson Wentz and the Eagles. Carolina is 0-60 SU in this spot since the start of the 2019 season; every other NFL team has at least three wins in this situation.
➤Bryce Young has made six career starts in the afternoon or evening slate of games while with the Panthers – Carolina is 0-6 SU (3-2-1 ATS), scoring 20 pts or more in 1 of the 6 matchups.
➤Panthers are in a unique spot. From Week 1 to Week 2, they will play on the road in EST and then on the road in MST or PST – only team doing so this year. We’ve seen 12 teams have to do this since 2003, favorites of 3 pts or more are 5-1 SU in this spot, while the rest of the teams are 1-5 SU – it’s a difficult journey if you aren’t good enough.
➤In Patrick Mahomes’ 68 career home starts, he has closed as an underdog just once, back in 2022 against the Bills. KC was +2.5 in Buffalo during the regular season and lost 24-20. In fact, he’s only closed -1.5 or shorter three times at home – all three games have come vs. the Bills.
➤This version of the Chiefs and Eagles will meet for a 5th time this week, with both Mahomes and Hurts 2-2 SU and ATS against each other. Chiefs only closed as an underdog in one of those games, the Super Bowl in 2022-23, which they won 38-35.
➤Chiefs are off a loss against the Chargers in Brazil last week. When KC is off a loss, Mahomes is 21-4 SU and 13-11-1 ATS in their next game, including 7-3 SU/ATS when the spread is less than six.
Since 2019, Mahomes is 6-0 SU after a Chiefs loss vs. an AFC West opponent.
Since 2019, Andy Reid and Mahomes are 6-0 SU on extended rest after a SU loss during the season
In Mahomes’ career, he is 8-2 ATS in October or earlier off a SU loss.
➤Both the Eagles and Chiefs are on extended rest before their Week 2 matchup. Since 2018, when both teams are on extended rest (8+ days), the under is 108-66-2 (62%), going under the total by over 2 PPG.
➤Jalen Hurts moved to 27-3 SU as a home favorite in Week 1 over the Cowboys. But even in the more competitive games, he has a good record. In road games where the Eagles are -3 or shorter or an underdog, Hurts is 10-8 SU with winning records against Lamar, Burrow, Mahomes and Goff to name a few.
➤He wasn’t needed week, but in 55 games with AJ Brown on the field, the Eagles are 44-11 SU and 29-24-2 ATS, including 17-1 SU last season.
➤Chiefs had won a record 17 consecutive one-score games entering last week (9-7-1 ATS in those games) – after the loss to the Chargers by six, back to square on. Since 2018, Chiefs are 16-4 SU, 12-7-1 ATS the game after losing by one possession (8 pts or less).
➤Chiefs have now lost four consecutive games outright when trailing by 7+ points at any point in the game – you have to go all the way back to 2017 to find the last time KC lost four straight games in this trailing spot. Since start of 2018, Chiefs are 46-25 SU (65%) when trailing by 7+ points at any point in the game – by far best mark in the NFL.
➤When the Chiefs lead early, they are tough to beat. KC is 64-7 SU (90%) since 2018 when leading after the first quarter (best win pct of any NFL team), including 29-0 SU in the last three seasons. Their last loss came in the 2022 AFC Championship game vs. Bengals.
➤Dating back to last season, the 2nd half over has hit in three straight Chiefs games – you have to go back to October of 2021 for the last time four straight 2nd half overs cashed for Kansas City. Since the start of 2023, the second-half under in Chiefs games is 29-13 (69%).
➤Eagles and Chiefs will be 11th Super Bowl rematch in the next regular season. The Super Bowl winner is 7-3 SU and ATS in those games. This will be the 5th rematch to occur in the first six weeks of the following season and first since Broncos/Panthers played in Week 1 back in 2016. Two of the three total losses both SU and ATS occurred in the first six weeks of the season.
➤Vikings and Chargers both play a second consecutive night game, after doing so in Week 1. They are just the 9th and 10th teams to do that since realignment in 2002, early results aren’t great, with those teams 3-6 SU/ATS, failing to cover the spread by 4.2 PPG.
➤JJ McCarthy will play at night again in his second start after facing the Bears on the round on Monday Night Football in Week 1. He will become the first QB to start night games in his 1st and 2nd career starts.
➤Falcons had a terrible rushing game in Week 1 against the Bucs going for just 69 yards on 28 rushing attempts. As a head coach, Raheem Morris hasn’t shown the ability to snap back after a poor rush game – when his team rushes for fewer than 100 yds, he is 10-17-1 ATS and under 150 yards, he’s 19-28-1 ATS.
➤Overall, Raheem Morris has had a better history covering on the road vs. home. He’s 20-17-1 ATS on the road and 12-25 ATS at home. His home mojo is so bad, when he plays on the road directly after a home game, his teams are 17-9-1 ATS.
➤Falcons have only finished above .500 ATS in one of its last 8 seasons dating back to 2017 – in that span, Atlanta is 53-79-1 ATS in the regular season, losing a $100 bettor $2,997, the worst mark of any team in the NFL.
➤In Week 1, Drake London led the Falcons in targets and receptions. Michael Penix Jr. played the majority of his snaps in Weeks 16, 17 and 18 last season. During those three weeks, London led the NFL in receiving yards with 352 on 39 targets, which also led the NFL.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤Texans continued their game script. Last year they went 13-4 against the first half spread (best mark in the NFL) during the regular season and 4-13 against the second half spread (worst mark in the NFL). In Week 1 against the Rams, they went 1-0 1H ATS and 0-1 2H ATS.
➤Nothing great came out of Stroud in Week 1 – team overall didn’t score a TD. But one concept remained consistent: his 1st half passer rating was 80.9 and his 2nd half was 67.3, a similar issue he was having last year.
Stroud 2nd season
First half: 13 TD, 6 INT, 94.2 pass rtg
Second half: 7 TD, 6 INT, 78 pass rtg
➤CJ Stroud has made five career starts within the first two games of the regular season and he is 0-5 ATS – Dating back to 2003, that is the most ATS losses without a victory for any QB.
➤Texans didn’t get into the end zone last week and are now listed as favorites against the Bucs. Since 2020, favorites the week after not scoring a TD are 33-24 SU but just 21-36 ATS, including 9-24 ATS since the start of 2023.
➤DeMeco Ryans has done a good job at getting Houston back on track. Since he took over in 2023, Houston is 6-1 SU the game after having 10+ penalties as a team.
➤This will be just the third time in Baker’s career his team is 1-0 SU with him coming out to start Week 2 – in both games, with the Bucs, Tampa has won and covered going to 2-0.
➤Starting in night games has never really been Baker’s forte. He is under .500 ATS at night with all three teams he’s started for, including 3-6 ATS on Monday Night Football. In Baker’s last seven night starts, both teams have combined to score 40 pts or more in every game.
➤It’s not all Baker’s fault, Todd Bowles has coached 24 games at night in primetime and his teams are 8-15-1 ATS. Of 90 different head coaches to coach at night in primetime over the last decade, Bowles’ 8-15-1 ATS mark is the 2nd-worst ahead of just Sean Payton.
➤When it comes to the road, have to give it to Baker. He started his career 17-31 SU on the road and after last week, he is 6-3 SU over the last two seasons.
➤Justin Herbert has made 82 career starts in the NFL. He is 42-40 SU, 45-35-2 ATS.
When his defense allows 24 pts or fewer, he is 34-12 SU, 34-10-2 ATS.
When his defense allows more than 24 pts, he is 13-29 SU, 15-27 ATS.
➤Chargers will be the 3rd team in the last 20 years to go from a neutral site game to a road game in the first four games of the regular season. In 2017, the Jaguars (-4) lost 23-20 at the Jets and in 2021 the Saints (+1) lost 26-7 at the Panthers.
➤Herbert has been great away from home, going 26-16 ATS in his career on the road or neutral site, including 11-5 ATS in September and October. Herbert has covered 9 of his last 12 road/neutral games dating back to 2023.
➤With the Chargers, Jim Harbaugh is now 13-5-1 ATS. In his NFL career as a head coach, Harbaugh is 55-32-4 ATS (63%).
Most profitable NFL coaches ATS last 20 yrs: Belichick, Mike McCarthy, Jim Harbaugh, Sean Payton, Dan Campbell.
➤Jim Harbaugh is 12-6-2 ATS in September, going .500 ATS or better in each of his seasons as a coach in the NFL. One step further, Harbaugh is 26-10-2 ATS in September and October in the NFL.
➤Geno Smith is 11-19-1 ATS as a favorite in his career and 28-23-2 ATS as an underdog. Of Geno's 11 career covers as a favorite, only two came when the opponent scored more than 20 points.
➤With the Seahawks, Pete Carroll was known as the night king to bettors. He finished his tenure in Seattle, 37-19-3 ATS (66%) in night games, best of any head coach since 2003. Geno Smith, while teammed up with Carroll, is 5-2 ATS in night games and all five of the QBs to play under Carroll in Seattle were above .500 ATS in night games: Russ, Geno, Tarvaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst and Drew Lock.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
NFL Betting Systems
System: Underdogs in low total games. Over 56% ATS since 2018.
Matches: SEA, NO
System: In games with a home underdog, unders have been profitable early in the season.
Matches: Check current lines.
System: If these teams close as a home dog, they would fit this trend since they are facing an undefeated team.
Matches: NO, NYJ, TEN, IND, KC, LV, CLE
System: Currently 3 plays are triggered, but check updated lines. This system looks at high totals in low ticket games, looking to bet the under.
Matches: Check current lines.
System: Games where both teams are on extended rest, look under.
Matches: PHI/KC, LAC/LV, TB/HOU
