Koerner: Projecting Every Player’s Odds of a Top Fantasy Finish in Week 3


Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins

Sep 19, 2019, 07:04 PM EDT

Welcome to my new weekly series featuring every player’s odds of posting a top fantasy finish at their position.

The concept is simple: I simulated every Week 3 game 10,000 times to calculate the odds, which include their chances of finishing as a QB1, RB1, WR1 and so on — so within the top 12 of their position in 12-team leagues, for example.

You might be asking yourself, “Great, what can I do with this? Will it help me decide who to start at TE this week?” Well, yes and no.

What I want to make clear is that these results are based on my projections as of two hours before the Thursday Night Football game. My Week 3 projections will change a bit between now and Sunday as there are two more days worth of data, film, news, etc. that could inform updates, so they’re the most accurate they can be come Sunday morning.

For season-long sit/start decisions, you should absolutely still consult my updated rankings on Sunday morning. And for daily fantasy, you can check out my updated projections on FantasyLabs that drive those models.

There is a constant stream of cool and interesting information that can make you a better fantasy football player. But I understand how that can be overwhelming when you have jobs, kids and a life outside of fantasy football, so I always aim to create rankings and projections that allow you can quickly reference when making a final sit/start decisions.

The goal of these odds is to help you think like a fantasy football expert, and one of the best ways to do that is to understand week-to-week variance and how it should impact your expectations.

Go To: QB | RB | WR | TE

Fantasy Quarterback Simulations, Week 3

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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