Wednesday MLB Odds, Expert Picks, Predictions: Our Best Bets for Dodgers vs. Phillies, Rangers vs. Mariners (August 11)
Ron Jenkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Spencer Howard.
- We have another stacked lineup of Major League Baseball games on Wednesday's schedule.
- Three of our analysts have delivered their best bets on card, featuring Dodgers vs. Phillies and Rangers vs. Mariners.
- Check out their top picks below and see where they've found betting value.
Editor’s note: Kyle Gibson was scratched from today’s start for Philadelphia due to weather. The Phillies will instead start Connor Brogdon.
Today’s baseball slate brings us a bevy of night games to choose from — 11 to be exact — which means there’s plenty of value to find.
Our analysts have found angles on two games that stand out and two of our writers are aligned on one of the most intriguing matchups of the night: Dodgers vs. Phillies.
Here are our three best bets from Wednesday’s Major League Baseball slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Dodgers vs. Phillies
Michael Arinze: The Dodgers ended the Phillies’ eight-game winning streak by handing them a 5-0 loss on Tuesday night. On Wednesday, Los Angeles will look to build on its own winning by extending its unbeaten run to four games.
David Price will make his ninth start of the season, and he’ll be opposed by Kyle Gibson, who has won both of his starts since he was traded to the Phillies. Those games came against the Pirates and the Mets, so this matchup will be a real step up in class against a Dodgers team that’s tied for the second-best record in the National League.
While it was a nice run for the Phillies, they didn’t exactly face any world-beaters by defeating the Pirates, Nationals, and the Mets. That was more of a situation where the schedule just seemed to line up nicely for them against a Nationals team that traded away three of its best players and a Mets team that’s in a complete free fall after suffering a rash of injuries.
As good as things have for Gibson in a Phillies uniform, he likely won’t feel too warm seeing the Dodgers. After all, he’s 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA in two starts against them.
But it’s how the Dodgers have attacked him that’s probably the most concerning. In 701 at-bats, their current lineup has a .271 / .338 / .714 line against him. 10 of their 19 hits have been via the long ball, and their 1.052 OPS is simply frightening.
Contrast that with the Phillies, who have a .275 / .308 / .392 line against Price with just one home run allowed.
I think both teams should be able to score runs in this game, but I can’t back Gibson and a Phillies bullpen that leads the league with 25 blown saves.
Anytime you can get the the Dodgers against an NL East team at less than -150 odds, it’s worth a look. Since 2013 in this spot, the Dodgers are 50-36 for 14.36 units.
I’ll take my chances with them as -136 favorites over at FanDuel.
Dodgers vs. Phillies
Kenny Ducey: The Phillies may just be spiraling back into disarray after so much momentum entering the week. The vibe was good following a series win over the Mets that vaulted them into first place, then their parade was literally rained on.
Rhys Hoskins hitting the IL was a pretty big blow, then came a lengthy rain delay on Tuesday night, right in the middle of a great start from Aaron Nola. The righty struck out seven over four scoreless frames, allowing just a hit, but had to exit after the delay in favor of JD Hammer, who was one of Philly’s best relievers. What followed was five relievers taking care of five innings and fumbling away the game, taxing the bullpen in the process.
With dulled spirits, no Hoskins and a shortened Phillies bullpen, the Dodgers are surely the value entering Wednesday as a short favorite on the road. David Price has been good enough during his time in the rotation with just a couple of three-run outings, and he’s racked up plenty of strikeouts along the way while expertly limiting walks.
The Phillies have been victimized by the strikeout against lefties, with 25.4% of plate appearances ending in a punchout, and have thrived off of walks (9.2%) and timely homers. Price doesn’t walk many, or allow a bundle of homers, making this a tough matchup.
Kyle Gibson hasn’t been the model of consistency this year, either, and the combination of walks beginning to pile up (six in his last two starts) and the Dodgers feeling it at the plate, it’s unlikely he’s able to make it out alive.
L.A. has always been one of the best in the league at walking, and its quality contact has returned. At the time of writing, both PointsBet and bet365 have the best odds on the Dodgers at -135 and I like their moneyline as the play here.
Rangers vs. Mariners
Brad Cunningham: Spencer Howard is a big time positive regression candidate because he’s had a lot of bad luck with his ERA up at 6.16, but his expected ERA is almost two runs lower at 4.28. His main issue is that he’s walking too many guys with a BB/9 dangerously approaching six.
However, he’s a strikeout machine with a K/9 rate a tick below 10. He’s mainly a fastball pitcher, going to it 67.9% of the time, which will be an advantage against a Mariners lineup that has a -31 run value against fastballs. Seattle is also bottom five in wOBA and wRC+ against right handed pitching.
Tyler Anderson came over to the Mariners in a trade with Pittsburgh and he’s been really average this season, posting a 4.28 xERA and 4.44 xFIP. He mainly utilizes and fastball, cutter, changeup combination, but all three pitches haven’t been that effective allowing an expected batting average over .250 and an xwOBA over .300.
I have the Rangers projected at +112 for the first five innings and with Howard due for some positive regression, I think there is some value on the Rangers as big underdogs at +155 and would play it down to +135.