MLB Odds, Expert Picks, Predictions for Tuesday: 3 Best Bets, Including Giants vs. Mets & Reds vs. Brewers (August 24)
John Fisher/Getty Images. Pictured: Willy Adames smells his bat.
- Tuesday's MLB slate kicked off this afternoon but there's plenty of action under the lights, too.
- Our analysts have found three games on which they see value.
- Continue reading for our best bets from Tuesday's MLB slate.
Our analysts have found angles on three games tonight: Rangers vs. Indians, Giants vs. Mets and Reds vs. Brewers.
Here are our three best bets from Tuesday night’s Major League Baseball slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
|8:10 p.m. ET|
Rangers vs. Indians
However, I continue to project betting value on the second-worst team in the American League, and we’ll hop on them again on Tuesday night with Taylor Hearn (4.50 xERA, 4.70 xFIP, 4.77 SIERA) facing Eli Morgan (4.89 xERA, 4.78 xFIP, 4.27 SIERA).
Hearn (projected FIP range 4.61-5.17) should be a better pitcher moving forward than Morgan (projected FIP range 4.86-5.28), and he owns much better stuff. Hearn’s fastball velocity (95.7 mph) ranks among the best for a left-handed starting pitcher, while Morgan is a soft-tosser who rounds out a below-average arsenal with a solid changeup; he probably ends up as a reverse-splits reliever, long term.
I give a slight edge to Cleveland both offensively and in the bullpen — by about a quarter run per game in either facet. And though Texas is the better defensive team on the season (+48 to 0 in Defensive Runs Saved), I rate Cleveland’s current position player group about 29 runs better than league average, defensively, compared to 4.5 for Texas.
After accounting for those advantages, I still make Texas a 49% underdog for the first five innings and a 45.5% underdog for the whole game on Tuesday. The best odds as of this writing for the full-game is at PointsBet at +150. I would bet the first five moneyline down to +115 and the full game to +135.
Giants vs. Mets
Let’s start with New York, which not only ranks 25th in wRC+ against lefties, but has hit .244 over the last two weeks with a lowly .675 OPS and an even-worse .126 ISO. It will run into Sammy Long here, who has posted some gaudy strikeout numbers in the minor leagues and carries a respectable 25% strikeout rate into this start.
His walks have held him back, but with a Mets team drawing them at just a 5.7% clip over the last 14 days with a 24.1% strikeout rate, you can expect a pretty solid outing here. New York has had awful plate discipline and should help Long pitch more like his 3.86 xERA has indicated he should pitch.
Then there’s the Giants, who have a pretty pedestrian .762 OPS over that two-week span compared to their standards, and have fallen victim to some slow-developing nights at the dish. Tylor Megill has been stellar for the Mets in 11 starts this year, sporting a fantastic fastball and pitching to a 2.87 xERA. New York’s No. 23 prospect has kept this team in games, and should help a cold Mets offense stay in this one for a while. I love this under.
Reds vs. Brewers
|8:10 p.m. ET|
Brad Cunningham: Tyler Mahle has been pitching well for the Reds this season and has a 3.70 xERA. He’s been a strikeout machine with a K/9 rate over 10, but his BB/9 rate and HR/9 rate are starting to drift above the MLB average. He only has three pitches in his arsenal: fastball, slider and split finger, and I would only categorize his fastball and slider as average, as they are both allowing a wOBA over .330.
Milwaukee’s offense has been the best in baseball over the past month, putting up a .344 wOBA and 111 wRC+, and over that same time span they have a +19.6 run value against fastballs and sliders, so they will be a tough matchup for Mahle.
What more can you say about Corbin Burnes other than he’s been the best pitcher in Major League Baseball? HIs expected ERA is at an astonishingly low 1.89, which is the best mark in baseball by almost a full run. The reason he has been so good is because his control is ridiculous (12.4 K/9 rate & 1.62 BB/9 rate) and he’s been dominant with his top-three pitches of cutter, curveball and slider.
Burnes goes to his cutter more than 50% of the time and opposing hitters haven’t been able to figure it out as it’s only allowing a .180 expected batting average. The numbers on his curveball and slider are mesmerizing. He’s thrown them more than 500 times combined and opposing hitters only have nine total hits against those two pitches and they’re carrying a whiff rate of better than 45%. The Reds’ offense has been on fire, but they do struggle against sliders and curveballs, so I think Burnes will have a good matchup tonight.