UFC Vegas 88 Odds, Picks, Projections: Our Best Bets for Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura & More (Saturday, March 16)

Check out the latest UFC Vegas 88 odds with our expert best bets for Saturday, March 16, including our pick for the Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura main event.

UFC Vegas 88: Tuivasa vs. Tybura takes place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, and the entire event streams on ESPN+ beginning at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT).

Saturday's event features 13 fights in all, with a mix of veterans and newcomers providing some lopsided (and intriguing) odds throughout the lineup.

So where should you be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and picks on Saturday’s ESPN+ card that present betting value.

Below are the latest UFC odds for those matchups, as well as analysis and picks from our experts.

*Matchup odds as of Saturday afternoon and via FanDuel; bet on UFC Vegas 88 with our FanDuel promo code!

Billy Ward: Cory McKenna vs. Jaqueline Amorin

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:35 p.m. ET

Of all the fights on what looks to be a lackluster Apex card, the strawweight bout between Jaqueline Amorim (+138) and Cory McKenna (-164) is the likeliest to go to decision, according to oddsmakers.

That naturally piques my curiosity in the underdog Amorim. Almost anytime we expect the judges to get involved, we’d rather be holding the plus-money ticket. Particularly with smaller fighters – the strawweight division is the UFC’s lightest – as there tends to be far less obvious damage from either fighter, making it hard to pick a clear winner in standup exchanges.

That gives us our first out on Amorim.

Out No. 2 comes via her massive reach edge of 11.5 inches. McKenna is probably a natural atomweight (105 pounds), but the UFC doesn’t feature that division. McKenna is thus giving up a ton of size against most strawweights.

McKenna typically overcomes that by taking the fight to the ground – we’re all the same height on our backs, after all. Which would be a big mistake against Amorim, who’s been training BJJ since age 6 and won the Pan-American no-gi championship at black belt before transitioning to MMA full-time.

McKenna is a solid grappler in her own right, holding a brown belt. That’s a far cry from "championship-level black belt," though.

That makes it hard to see a path for McKenna winning this one clearly, so the worst-case outcome is a tight decision that goes against us. Amorim has plenty of finishing upside via her grappling – while McKenna has a negative striking differential in her UFC career. She’s yet to face a fighter with a winning UFC record, so that stat isn’t a “level of competition” issue either.

I’d play Amorim down to even money, as she should be the favored fighter here.

The Pick:Jaqueline Amorim (+155 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Dan Tom: Jafel Filho vs. Ode' Osbourne

Contributor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:25 p.m. ET

Although I'm usually a prop player who hunts big plus numbers, I couldn't pass up taking a side on the preliminary bout between Jafel Filho (-162) and Ode' Osbourne (+136).

Despite Osbourne sporting a .500 record in the UFC, the Jamaican fighter quietly carries a 3-0 record inside of the UFC Apex. That said, I suspect that Filho will make for a tough stylistic matchup for Osbourne given his size parity and pressure grappling game.

Osbourne may have a background in wrestling, but he's shown that he's not beyond surrendering takedowns in hopes of scoring opportunistic submissions.

It's also important to note Osbourne's propensity to allow for neck and back exposure in scrambles, which could be crucial against a submission artist like Filho.

A Pan-American jiu-jitsu champion who hails from the famed Nova Uniao camp in Brazil, Filho is an aggressive grappler who will definitely fight for your money. In fact, Filho has proven that he can produce finishes late into contests – even when hurt or compromised.

Osbourne, on the other hand, has shown some suspect staying power, whether we're talking about his stamina or chin (which I suspect won't be getting any better given both Osbourne's age and the amount of weight he cuts to hit the flyweight limit).

Even though I'll probably put Filho to win by submission in a round-robin ticket, I'll ultimately be kicking for coverage by playing his moneyline, given that the Brazilian has multiple pathways to victory here.

The Pick:Jafel Filho (-160 at Caesars)

Tony Sartori: Natan Levy vs. Mike Davis

Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:25 p.m. ET

Saturday's featured prelim is a lightweight bout between unranked contenders Natan Levy (+380) and Mike Davis (-490). Opening as a heavy favorite, Davis has been bet up all the way to -500 at most sportsbooks as of fight day.

This line is so long, but for good reason. Davis brings a 10-2 professional record into this bout with his only two losses coming to UFC mainstay Sodiq Yusoff on Contender Series and always-dangerous former title contender Gilbert Burns. He's taken care of anyone else in his way, going 3-0 in his past three fights when priced as the betting favorite, with the past two coming by unanimous decision.

That's how I believe this fight will also go. Davis has such a well-rounded MMA style that he can utilize a bunch of different tools to rack up points and secure victories on the scorecards.

His true base is wrestling, but he fights in a more boxing-orientated style until he chooses to bring the fight to the mat. With that said, he is equally dangerous in whichever direction he chooses to bring the fight.

The only thing Davis doesn't excel at is hunting submissions, but that just bodes well for our decision prop. On the other hand, Levy is also a well-rounded mixed martial artist with a variety of belts from different styles in his arsenal. However, he just doesn't strike or wrestle as well as his counterpart in this fight, which is almost always a recipe for failure for big underdogs.

Levy's only edge is in the submission game, but Davis' only tap was to Burns, and Levy's grappling is not nearly on that level. I think we are going to get another simple fight from Davis in this spot as he picks his shots and goes for takedowns to rack up control time, just as he has done in each of his past two fights en route to decision wins.

Finally, no matter how much Levy is dominated, he has never been finished through nine professional MMA bouts.

The Pick:Mike Davis by Decision (+110 at Betway)

Dann Stupp: Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura

Senior Editor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET

Past results don't always dictate future outcomes, but they sure can tell us a lot in the UFC heavyweight division, where fight breakdowns can be rather straightforward and predictable.

Unlike the lighter divisions, where fighters may add a whole new wrinkle to their game in a short timeframe, the bigger men tend to plod along largely with whatever the good Lord gave 'em. For example, don't expect a 30-something heavyweight to suddenly acquire flashy spinning kicks or a dynamically improved submission game – not without a ton of time and dedicated effort.

So, what we see on paper is often what we get with the heavyweights. Still, even those black-and-white results don't always tell the full story.

Yes, UFC Vegas 88 headliner Tai Tuivasa is stuck in a three-fight skid. There's no denying that. But the losses? They came to Ciryl Gane, Sergei Pavlovich and Alexander Volkov. The heavyweight division generally sucks in MMA; but those killers are elites in the top-heavy weight class.

The next opponent for Tuivasa (-112), fellow UFC Vegas 88 headliner Marcin Tybura (-104), is a bit of a step down in terms of competition. Tybura doesn't always fight like a "big" big man, and a recent propensity for decision wins underscores his lack of finishing ability against legit contenders.

Even with the smaller UFC Apex cage, I don't think Tybura is going to be able to capitalize like he needs to and smother Tuivasa. Trying to chip away at Tuivasa – in a scheduled five-rounder – is a recipe for disaster.

Basically, if you let Tuivasa hang around long enough and don't have KO power of your own, I think you're going to pay the price.

Especially when you're likely facing a power and durability disadvantage.

I'm taking Tuivasa at -114 odds, and I'd take "Bam Bam" down to -130.

The Pick:Tai Tuivasa (-114 at FanDuel)