UFC Vegas 88 Predictions: 7 Juicy Props From the MMA Prop Squad (Saturday, March 16)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC light heavyweight Kennedy Nzechukwu
Check out our UFC predictions and picks for tonight's UFC Vegas 88 event, featuring juicy prop bets from the MMA Prop Squad.
UFC Vegas 88 takes place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, and the entire event streams on ESPN+ beginning at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT).
Although the card is light on star power, our experts have made their UFC predictions and picks from the props market for the Saturday, March 16 fight card.
Each MMA Prop Squad installment features a handful of picks from our squad of prop-betting enthusiasts, who have tallied +14.6 units a +4.2% ROI per bet lifetime, including +6.5 units and a 14.5% ROI in 2024.
As with all betting endeavors, always wager within your means. That guidance is especially important when dealing with long-shot prop bets. Although the props often offer tantalizing odds, they also cash far less frequently than standard bet types. And be sure to shop around for the best price since prop odds can vary substantially depending on the sportsbook.
UFC Predictions & Prop Picks
Bryan Fonseca: Jacqueline Amorim by Submission (+390)
Contributor at The Action Network and combat sports host and on-air talent
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:35 p.m. ET
I mentioned this while on The Action Network podcast (see below) this week previewing the card: Jacqueline Amorim could absolutely take Cory McKenna.
The line is fair: McKenna presents as a more versatile fighter here, but I just think this bout will go to the ground, which plays into Amorim's skill set.
Both are skilled in jiu-jitsu, McKenna being a brown belt and Amorim a black belt. She's a creative submission specialist, having made opponents tap out to rear-naked chokes, kneebars, armbars and arm triangles, and she also has a ground-and-pound finish.
Because I'm expecting this bout to be grounded and not predominately standing for long periods, I think Amorim is worth playing as a long shot to win by submission.
(And ultimately, I'd lean to pick her as an underdog to win the bout straight up, which is also at plus money and has been all week long.)
The Pick: Jacqueline Amorim by Submission (+390 at BetRivers)
Clint MacLean: Mike Davis in Round 3 (+900)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:25 p.m. ET
Natan Levy is a fighter I've been trying to fade for a long time. In my opinion, he's been scraping by on the bottom of the barrel in the UFC, and if you watch his UFC footage, he's hanging on for dear life late in fights.
Mike Davis is the exact opposite. "Beast Boy" has great cardio and pushes a hard pace for a full 15 minutes.
Davis is motivated to get a finish this weekend. And while I do think Levy will hold his own early, the later this fight goes, the more I believe Davis will extend his lead.
This is a big step up for Levy, and when the going gets tough, Davis will be the one who digs deep and keeps pushing.
If you are running for your life against Mike Bredeen in Round 3, I hate to think what Davis will do to you in Round 3.
The Pick: Mike Davis in Round 3 (+900 at Betway)
Tony Sartori: Bryan Barberena by KO (+500)
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET
Kicking off UFC's main card on Saturday is a middleweight bout between unranked veterans in Gerald Meerschaert and Bryan Barberena. As the UFC typically attempts to do, we should get a finish in the main card's opening fight as the "Does Not Go the Distance" prop is currently priced at -175 at Betway, and as short as -215 at other books.
This fight is just one of those that is easy to handicap if you agree it will not need the judges' input. If Meerschaert wins inside the distance, then it will be by submission. And if Barberena wins inside the distance, then it will be by KO/TKO.
So, in terms of just taking a valuable number, I think there is far more value in Barberena by KO at +500 (widely available) than there is on Meerschaert by submission at +110.
Both finishing options will be live in this fight, and while Meerschaert is rightfully favored, there is not as much to separate these fighters as those lines suggest.
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Both have been in the UFC for nearly a decade, both have high-profile wins as well as high-profile losses, and both are nearing the end of their careers as each was born in the late '80s. Both fighters have also lost three of their past four fights.
So, why not take a shot on the underdog at such a long price of 5/1 in what is his most likely avenue to victory? Three of Meerschaert's past five losses have come by knockout while 11 of Barberena's 18 pro victories have come by that method.
Barberena will want this on the feet in a boxing match while Meerschaert will hunt those submissions. Stylistically, if things go Barberena's way early on, then that knockout prop gets very live as he will be the better striker.
Father Time is undefeated, and a fighter's chin has never improved with age, especially with multiple recent knockout losses. Barberena surely possesses the power and tenacity to end this fight with one punch, and even if he loses by submission within a round, I won't lose sleep over this pick. I think 5/1 is just too long of a number to pass up in this spot between these two guys.
The Pick: Bryan Barberena by KO (+500 at FanDuel)
Liam Heslin: Kennedy Nzechukwu by Submission (+900) | Fight Ends by Submission (+600)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of Liam Picks Fights
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
Both Kennedy Nzechukwu and Ovince Saint Preux are coming off brutal losses via first-round knockout.
Dustin Jacoby, a former Glory kickboxer, recently exploded on Nzechukwu's chin while Saint Preux got finished in the first minute of his most recent bout with Phillipe Lins.
"OSP" appears to have a shot chin. Lucky for him, Nzechukwu tends to start his fights slowly, so he may not sprint across the octagon with violent intentions like we saw Lins do to Saint Preux.
This pricing makes no mathematical sense to me. Nzechukwu's most recent UFC finish was a second-round submission win over Devin Clark, but he's been submitted in the UFC by Paul Craig as well.
Saint Preux has an extensive submission history with an 8-3 professional record to the submission prop. He submitted Michal Oleksiejczuk in 2019 with his patented Von Preux choke, and four fights have ended via submission since 2018.
If Nzechukwu is -700 (87.5% expected win rate) and -330 inside the distance, how is so little equity being given to the submission prop at +900 (10% implied probability)?
I'm going to split my official bet into two picks this week. Give me Nzechukwu via club and sub in late Round 1 to cash this prop. And should he falter, let's hope OSP can find the magic of the Saint Preux choke one more time inside the octagon.
The Picks: Kennedy Nzechukwu by Submission (+900 at FanDuel) | Fight Ends by Submission (+600 at Unibet)
Dan Tom: Marcin Tybura in Round 2 (+700) | Tybura in Round 3 (+1100)
Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET
For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to target some "hot rounds" in the main event matchup between Tai Tuivasa and Marcin Tybura.
Whenever I refer to the term "hot rounds," I'm typically referring to rounds with a serious potential for a particular party to get a finish.
In this case, I believe that Tybura will be very lively for a finish if he can survive Tuivasa's traditional early storm.
Not only does Tuivasa typically fade as the fight wears on, but all of his submission losses come in Round 2.
Add in the fact that Tybura's grappling will give him a slight stylistic edge inside the smaller octagon (where the Pole currently stands 3-0), and I suspect that the 38-year-old heavyweight can find success if he can retain his consciousness on Saturday night.
Considering that the plus money on Tybura has largely left the station, sprinkling on his round props could be the way to go if you like that side of the UFC Vegas 88 main event. I'm splitting my bet and backing Tybura to win in Round 2 and Round 3.
The Picks: Marcin Tybura in Round 2 (+700 at FanDuel) | Tybura in Round 3 (+1100 at FanDuel)
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