UNC vs. Pittsburgh Betting Picks & Odds: Bank on Pitt’s Defense?

UNC vs. Pittsburgh Betting Picks & Odds: Bank on Pitt’s Defense? article feature image

Brett Davis, USA Today Sports.

  • We've got a Thursday night ACC battle on tap between UNC and Pitt (kickoff at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN). The updated betting odds make Pittsburgh a slight favorite (spread: Pitt -4) with the over/under set at 50.5.
  • Our college football betting expert Collin Wilson likes a pick on the over/under.
  • Check out more insights and analysis on the matchup below.

UNC at Pitt Betting Picks & Odds

  • Spread: Pitt -4
  • Over/Under: 50.5
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

Odds via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.

UNC at Pitt Line Movement

For the time being, bigger bettors have also been among the majority of bettors on this spread, as North Carolina has attracted 59% of bets making up 83% of actual money. The line has followed those bigger bettors, too, falling from Pitt -6 at some of the earliest books down to -4.

The total has similarly followed the bigger bets, as 47% of bets accounting for 71% of money on the over has helped drive the line from 49 to 50.5. — Danny Donahue

Collin Wilson: Will UNC Stick To the Script?

Pittsburgh has been a staple in my gambling portfolio for 2019. The Panthers covered the number against Central Florida and Penn State and have a perfect ATS record on the road. Pitt is the home team on Thursday night, so its away-from-home splits go out the window, but the Panthers will get a key contributor back against the Tar Heels.

Damar Hamlin, the team’s second-leading tackler, will return after missing Pitt’s last game against Georgia Tech. He will return to a defense that ranks first in the nation in passing success rate and fourth in sack rate.

North Carolina’s offensive line ranks 110th in sack rate, which suggests that Pitt will cause plenty of defensive havoc in this game. UNC head coach Mack Brown said his team will be committed to the run and keeping quarterback Sam Howell out of early passing downs will be key.

Our Action Network projections make this game Pitt -5.5 with a projected total of 54.5. Those numbers are relatively close to the market, which suggests passing on the side and total. However, I think Brown’s intention to run the ball, possibly even on second down in passing-down distance, directs me towards the Under.

North Carolina may need to abandon that strategy if Pitt gets a lead and considering the Heels have been a great second-half team this season, I’ll instead take a first-half under at the right price.

The Bet: First-Half Under 26 or better

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

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