Cardinals-Seahawks Betting Preview: Is Seattle Motivated Enough to Warrant a Wager?

Betting odds: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

• Spread: Seahawks -13
• Over/under: 38.5
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV channel: FOX

Betting market: Ticket percentages are a bit misleading in this matchup. Fifty-one percent of bets are on Seattle, suggesting that overall betting action is balanced. However, 81% of dollars wagered are on Arizona at the time of writing, revealing that bettors expect the Cards to keep this game within two touchdowns (see live data here). — PJ Walsh

Trends to know: Seattle (9-4-2 against the spread) has been one of the most profitable teams this season covering on average by 5.5 points per game. While bettors have made money wagering on the Seahawks, this could be a good opportunity to fade them.

Since 2003, teams that have covered the spread by five or more points per game have gone 304-380-21 (44%) ATS in Week 5 or later in the season according to our Bet Labs data. — John Ewing

The Cardinals are about to make gambling history. Last week against the Rams, Arizona closed as a 14.5-point underdog against Los Angeles. Currently, the Cardinals are 13.5-point underdogs against the Seahawks.

Since 2003, only four other teams have been more than a 10-point underdog to divisional opponents in consecutive weeks.

Those teams went 4-0 against the spread:

2014: Raiders (+10.5) at Chargers (L, 13-6)
2010: Lions (+14.5) at Packers (L, 28-26)
2009: Buccaneers (+12) at Falcons (L, 20-17)
2005: Texans (+17.5) at Colts (L, 31-17) — Evan Abrams

Playoff picture: The Seahawks clinched a playoff spot with their win over Kansas City in Week 16.

Our simulations give Seattle a 95.6% chance to get the 5-seed. To move down to the 6-seed, the Seahawks would need to lose to Arizona and have Minnesota beat Chicago.

In other words, Seattle will be motivated to win on Sunday, but has little incentive to do much else. — Scott T. Miller

Draft order: According to our simulations, the Cardinals have a 90.5% get the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 draft.

Beating the Seahawks is the only thing that could screw that up. — Scott T. Miller

Biggest mismatch: Seahawks rushing attack vs. Cardinals run defense

The Seahawks boast the fourth-best rushing offense in terms of Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, while the Cardinals rank 27th in rush defense DVOA.

Given that the Seahawks are 13.5-point home favorites, it’s likely they continue their usual routine of just running at their opponents.

As a team, the Seahawks are averaging 4.8 yards per rush and a league-high 158.5 yards per game on the ground.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals rush defense has allowed 4.8 yards per attempt and a league-high 153.1 rushing yards per game.

The 476 rushing attempts they’ve faced also leads the league, likely because opposing offenses are always in favorable game scripts against them. — Justin Bailey

Which team is healthier? Cardinals

The Seahawks could decide not to overload Chris Carson with 20-plus touches, but they are tentatively expected to trot out most of their usual starters.

This will be easier than normal to accomplish thanks to the expected return of first-round pick Rashaad Penny (ankle).

Wide receiver Doug Baldwin (shoulder), along with defenders K.J. Wright (knee), Tedric Thompson (chest, ankle) and Jarran Reed (oblique) appear to be the only starters at risk of missing time due to injury.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ only question marks surround tight end Ricky Seals-Jones (shoulder,) along with defensive ends Markus Golden (ankle) and Benson Mayowa (back, neck).

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: Given that the Seahawks are locked into the No. 5 or No. 6 seed, it’s possible they could rest some of their starters at some point throughout the game.

I’d rather just avoid this game for DFS purposes unless we get clarity on their offense might do.

Seattle running game would be extremely appealing as 13.5-point home favorites — Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Cardinals +13

As John mentioned earlier, late in the season, it pays to fade teams that have performed well against the spread, and to back teams that haven’t fared so well. This game offers the opportunity to do both.

The Seahawks fit into the category of teams holding an average cover margin of at least five points in Week 10 or beyond. Fading such teams has returned a 210-160-13 (56.8%) ATS record since 2005.

Arizona, on the other hand, is failing to cover by more than five points per game. Backing such teams in Week 10 or later has gone 200-177-7 (53.1%) ATS since 2005.

But the real money maker comes when teams from each respective category meet. Taking the strugglers against the team on a roll, based on the above descriptions, has left bettors with a 43-12-2 (78.2%) ATS record. — Danny Donahue

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.