Best Week 10 Player Props: Will Dion Lewis Have His Revenge on the Patriots?
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tennessee Titans running back Dion Lewis (33) walks off the field after the game against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium.
- There are four player props offering betting value on Sunday's main slate for Week 10.
- Titans RB Dion Lewis will look to exploit his matchup this Sunday against his former Patriots teammates.
The revenge factor isn’t one I ever really consider when handicapping player prop bets. If it such a thing exists, it’s difficult to quantify.
But when those narratives are backed by the numbers, sign me up.
This week, I’m looking at two potential revenge spots — Dion Lewis and Donte Moncreif — but not just because they’re facing their former teams.
We’ll also check in with one head to head prop bet, and you can check out a bunch more of our favorite Week 10 head to heads over at Bet the Prop.
Here are the records on the year:
- Props Tool Bet Quality 10 Record: 176-85 (66%)
- Article picks : 27-9 (75%)
- Bet the Prop Overall Record: 197-140 (58%)
Titans RB Dion Lewis
Over 4 Receptions (-115)
Lewis looks like a solid value in this spot, and any potential revenge narratives are just icing on the cake.
- The Patriots give up 5.8 receptions to running backs per game, 12th most in the league.
- New England ranks fifth in overall scoring and is a 7-point favorite, which should mean plenty of opportunities for Lewis.
- Lewis appears to have seized the Titans’ backfield, with snap rates of 84% and 63% over the past two weeks compared to 20% and 34% for an ineffective Derrick Henry.
The diminutive back needs less volume than others to get the same job done. Among all running backs with at least 20 targets, his 89% catch rate is the best in the league.
Betting the over on Lewis receptions would’ve netted you a 4-1 record this season.
I’d play it to 4.5 receptions, but I’d want something close to plus odds to do that. At this line, I’d pay up to -122 vig.