Best Week 10 Player Props: Will Dion Lewis Have His Revenge on the Patriots?

Nov 11, 2018 10:59 AM EST
  • There are four player props offering betting value on Sunday's main slate for Week 10.
  • Titans RB Dion Lewis will look to exploit his matchup this Sunday against his former Patriots teammates.

The revenge factor isn’t one I ever really consider when handicapping player prop bets. If it such a thing exists, it’s difficult to quantify.

But when those narratives are backed by the numbers, sign me up.

This week, I’m looking at two potential revenge spots — Dion Lewis and Donte Moncreif — but not just because they’re facing their former teams.

We’ll also check in with one head to head prop bet, and you can check out a bunch more of our favorite Week 10 head to heads over at Bet the Prop.

Here are the records on the year:

Titans RB Dion Lewis

Over 4 Receptions (-115 @ Sportsbook.com)

Lewis looks like a solid value in this spot, and any potential revenge narratives are just icing on the cake.

  • The Patriots give up 5.8 receptions to running backs per game, 12th most in the league.
  • New England ranks fifth in overall scoring and is a 7-point favorite, which should mean plenty of opportunities for Lewis.
  •  Lewis appears to have seized the Titans’ backfield, with snap rates of 84% and 63% over the past two weeks compared to 20% and 34% for an ineffective Derrick Henry.

The diminutive back needs less volume than others to get the same job done. Among all running backs with at least 20 targets, his 89% catch rate is the best in the league.

Betting the over on Lewis receptions would’ve netted you a 4-1 record this season.

I’d play it to 4.5 receptions, but I’d want something close to plus odds to do that. At this line, I’d pay up to -122 vig.

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Credit:

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tennessee Titans running back Dion Lewis (33) walks off the field after the game against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium.

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