Black Monday has become a predictable NFL tradition: the season ends, and teams begin making coaching decisions within hours.
To anticipate those moves, we built a firing score for NFL head coaches. This forecast isn’t about who should be fired. Instead, it estimates who is most likely to be fired after the 2025 regular season based on:
Performance vs. expectations
Fan negativity
Market firing odds
The model outputs a Firing Score (0–100) — higher means a hotter seat and a higher chance of getting canned. Further down you can see each coach's standing, but first, here are the five coaches most at risk heading into Black Monday.
The Coaches With Greatest Risk Of Being Fired
1) Pete Carroll, Raiders — 52.83
A 2-win season against an expectation of 7 for the Raiders is the kind of collapse that gets coaches fired twice. Add in meaningful market heat (35% combined) and solid fan negativity (33.45%), and Carroll tops the board.
2) Jonathan Gannon, Cardinals — 51.97
Expected 10 wins, finished with 3, and the markets are loud (41% combined). Fan sentiment is negative but not nuclear — the score is driven by the performance gap and betting consensus.
3) John Harbaugh, Ravens — 43.80
A Ravens season projected at 12 wins ending at 6 is a rare “eyes on the staff” scenario. The market signal is extreme (47% Polymarket), making this a high-score outlier.
4) Zac Taylor, Bengals — 43.69
Projected 11, ended with 4 — a catastrophic miss that dominates the scoring model. Market odds (21.5% combined) and fan sentiment (25.97% negative) push him firmly into the danger zone.
5) Dan Quinn, Commanders — 43.23
The fascinating part here: low market odds (3%), but the fans are unhappy (29.91% negative) and performance craters (3 wins vs. 10 expected).
Safest Seats (Lowest Firing Scores)
These coaches appear most secure under the model — typically meeting expectations and drawing minimal market heat:
Dave Canales, Panthers — 4.89(lowest score overall)
Mike Macdonald, Seahawks — 7.18
Sean Payton, Broncos — 7.30
Shane Steichen, Colts — 7.34
Kellen Moore, Saints — 7.37
The NFL Has No Job Security
In the NFL, job security is basically a myth for players and coaches alike. Head coach is a grueling role where showing up and effort doesn’t count. Only game day results matter to owners, boosters, and fans. At the end of the day, any of these coaches could find themselves unemployed once the season ends. But the numbers make one thing clear: some seats are a lot hotter than others.
You can see real time firing percentages on Kalshi, and take part yourself with this Kalshi referral code.
NFL Coaches, Ranked From Most Likely To Be Fired To Least
| Rank | Coach | Team | Firing Score 0-100 | Win Diff (Actual − Expected) | Market Odds % | % Negative Comments |
| 1 | Pete Carroll | Las Vegas Raiders | 52.83 | -5 | 35 | 33.45 |
| 2 | Jonathan Gannon | Arizona Cardinals | 51.97 | -7 | 41 | 26.89 |
| 3 | John Harbaugh | Baltimore Ravens | 43.80 | -6 | 47 | 28.20 |
| 4 | Zac Taylor | Cincinnati Bengals | 43.69 | -7 | 21.5 | 25.97 |
| 5 | Dan Quinn | Washington Commanders | 43.23 | -7 | 3 | 29.91 |
| 6 | Sean McDermott | Buffalo Bills | 34.65 | -4 | 47 | 30.07 |
| 7 | Kevin Stefanski | Cleveland Browns | 34.62 | -2 | 38.5 | 19.96 |
| 8 | Andy Reid | Kansas City Chiefs | 33.28 | -6 | 11 | 22.11 |
| 9 | Raheem Morris | Atlanta Falcons | 32.61 | -3 | 31 | 24.44 |
| 10 | Aaron Glenn | New York Jets | 28.31 | -2 | 1.5 | 31.74 |
| 11 | Todd Bowles | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 27.47 | -3 | 24 | 25.86 |
| 12 | Kevin O'Connell | Minnesota Vikings | 25.89 | -3 | 2 | 26.55 |
| 13 | Nick Sirianni | Philadelphia Eagles | 25.25 | -4 | 3 | 31.35 |
| 14 | Mike Tomlin | Pittsburgh Steelers | 24.59 | -2 | 30.5 | 23.40 |
| 15 | Kyle Shanahan | San Francisco 49ers | 23.36 | -4 | 2 | 29.92 |
| 16 | Brian Schottenheimer | Dallas Cowboys | 19.41 | -2 | 2 | 25.62 |
| 17 | Mike McDaniel | Miami Dolphins | 15.15 | -1 | 9.5 | 22.52 |
| 18 | Matt LaFleur | Green Bay Packers | 14.61 | -2 | 2 | 20.06 |
| 19 | DeMeco Ryans | Houston Texans | 13.14 | -1 | 2 | 28.33 |
| 20 | Dan Campbell | Detroit Lions | 12.92 | -1 | 4 | 25.44 |
| 21 | Ben Johnson | Chicago Bears | 9.55 | 2 | 4 | 34.21 |
| 22 | Sean McVay | Los Angeles Rams | 8.51 | 1 | 2 | 32.04 |
| 23 | Mike Vrabel | New England Patriots | 8.24 | 1 | 3 | 29.96 |
| 24 | Jim Harbaugh | Los Angeles Chargers | 7.79 | 1 | 3 | 28.17 |
| 25 | Liam Coen | Jacksonville Jaguars | 7.47 | 2 | 2 | 27.89 |
| 26 | Kellen Moore | New Orleans Saints | 7.37 | 0 | 2 | 27.46 |
| 27 | Shane Steichen | Indianapolis Colts | 7.34 | 0 | 1.5 | 27.84 |
| 28 | Sean Payton | Denver Broncos | 7.30 | 1 | 3 | 26.21 |
| 29 | Mike Macdonald | Seattle Seahawks | 7.18 | 2 | 5 | 23.72 |
| 30 | Dave Canales | Carolina Panthers | 4.89 | 2 | 1.5 | 18.05 |
Methodology: NFL Coach Firing Forecast
This analysis estimates the likelihood that an NFL head coach will be fired following the 2025 regular season (Black Monday) using a Job Security Probability Score (Firing Score). The model took into consideration:
- On-field performance (Actual wins compared to preseason expectations)
- Fan sentiment
- Betting market expectations.
Each coach receives a score on a 0–100 scale, with higher scores indicating a greater probability of dismissal.
First, team performance was measured by comparing actual wins to preseason expectations. Expected win totals were taken from CBS Sports’ 2025 season predictions and compared to final regular-season results from Pro-Football-Reference. Coaches were penalized only for underperforming relative to expectations, with larger gaps resulting in higher risk scores. This factor accounts for 50% of the final score, reflecting the reality that results matter most.
To capture external pressure, the model incorporates both fan sentiment and market odds, each weighted at 25%. Fan sentiment was derived from roughly 26,000 Reddit comments mentioning “coach,” including approximately 5,000 comments that named the head coach directly, with the percentage of negative comments used as a proxy for fan dissatisfaction.
Market expectations were sourced from Polymarket and Kalshi, using the average implied probability that a coach would be fired. All inputs were normalized and combined into a single firing probability score, allowing for consistent comparison across all teams.
Only coaches who have been head coach for a full season were evaluated.
You can see the full data here.
Sources
Pro-Football-Reference: 2025 NFL team win totals
CBS Sports: 2025 NFL season predictions
Reddit team subreddits (fan sentiment analysis)
Polymarket: Next NFL Head Coach Fired
Kalshi: Next NFL Coach Out
