Titans vs Broncos: Odds & Picks for NFL Week 10
Dan Mullan/Getty Images. Pictured: Russell Wilson.
Titans vs Broncos Odds
Tennessee came within a few plays of winning at Kansas City as a double-digit underdog last week. The Titans have been excellent as underdogs under Mike Vrabel, but are now laying points at home against Russell Wilson and the Broncos.
Denver last played two weeks ago in London, when Wilson engineered a game-winning drive to lead the Broncos to a much-needed victory against the Jaguars. Unlike some other teams that went to London, the Broncos opted to take their bye week upon returning to the states.
From a spot perspective, it's a very difficult rest disadvantage for the Titans. Not only did Tennessee go to overtime last week, but the Titans defense was on the field for 91 plays against Patrick Mahomes.
The status of Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill is uncertain as of Saturday. Even if he does play, the Titans offense has struggled to the point where I'll be taking the points with the underdog on Sunday.
Titans vs. Broncos Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Titans and Broncos match up statistically:
Titans vs. Broncos DVOA Breakdown
Tannehill was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday, but was a full participant on Thursday and Friday. That would seem to indicate he's trending toward playing Sunday, but the Titans are incentivized to hold him out until he's 100% healthy. Given their comfortable first-place position in the AFC South, this is not a desperation spot where Vrabel might rush Tannehill back.
For the purposes of this preview, let's assume Tannehill plays. Potential rust or limitations aside, the Titans offense has struggled mightily after the first quarter this season. The coaching staff has done an excellent job in the scripted portion of the game, but they fall apart after that.
That was also evident in the loss to Kansas City. The Titans scored touchdowns on two of their first three drives, yet only had one first down for the rest of the game. No wonder the defense was so exhausted at the end.
The Titans rank first in success rate, EPA per play and second in rushing success rate in the first quarter this season. The offense has been very difficult to defend early. Once defenses make adjustments and settle in, the Titans lack of playmakers really sets in. The Titans didn't have a wide receiver catch a pass against Kansas City last week.
The Titans are the worst second half offense in football. The pass offense is 32nd and only Indianapolis' run offense has been worse by EPA/play. Denver's defense ranks first in second half EPA/play and drop back success rate allowed.
If the Broncos get ahead in this game, it's. hard to see the Titans playing their way back into it.
The Titans' defense grades out extremely well, but they've also played one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses in the NFL. Consider the opponents they've faced in their wins this season: Colts (twice), Raiders, Commanders and Texans. Even in the wins against the Commanders and Raiders, Tennessee was outgained by a wide margin in both total yards and yards per play.
Tennessee has an elite red zone offense, but it has been unsustainably good and regression is looming.
There are 45 quarterbacks with at least 40 plays logged this season, and Malik Willis is 44th in efficiency. Tannehill is 17th, so he's a clear upgrade for the Titans passing offense.
But in this matchup against an elite Denver secondary, it's hard to see the Titans doing much to sustain offense through the air. It's likely to be Derrick Henry or bust and it's not as if the Titans have been elite at running the ball this season.
The Titans are a middle of the pack running team and Denver's run defense has been slightly above average this season. If you look at our Action Network Luck Ratings, the Titans are the fourth-luckiest team in the league. Close wins, outperforming underlying numbers and some good breaks have inflated their record.
NFL fans and media have mocked Wilson and the Broncos, but they rank 28th in luck. They've had a ton of close bounces go against them this year. This is a great spot for Denver, coming off a bye against a potentially exhausted Tennessee defense.
This game should be closer to a pick'em with Tannehill in. If he's out, the Broncos should be favored. Denver is a great teaser option because you can tease them through three and seven, but I'm betting the spread.
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