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Luck-Driven NFL Power Rankings: Undefeated Eagles Sit Atop Luck Rankings; Packers at Bottom

Luck-Driven NFL Power Rankings: Undefeated Eagles Sit Atop Luck Rankings; Packers at Bottom article feature image
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Patrick McDermott/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers.

Our NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action’s Predictive Analytics team — are in for Week 9, and there’s a new team at the top.

The undefeated Philadelphia Eagles are 2022’s luckiest team through nine weeks. By definition, the Eagles’ record is luckier than expected as an undefeated team. However, that’s bolstered by their 3-0 record in one-score games including a 2-0 record in games decided by a field goal or less.

These rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.

For more on how our luck rankings work, check out this detailed overview of the concept.

Without further ado, let’s dive into the Week 10 NFL Luck Rankings!

Note: Luck% represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage.

Luck-Based NFL Power Rankings

RANK Team Luck%
1 30.7%
2 29.8%
3 28.9%
4 26.8%
5 23.3%
6 21.9%
7 15.9%
8 15.8%
9 15.5%
10 14.0%
11 10.9%
12 6.3%
13 4.8%
14 2.0%
15 -2.2%
16 -2.9%
17 -3.2%
18 -4.6%
19 -6.3%
20 -11.4%
21 -11.7%
22 -11.8%
23 -14.0%
24 -15.7%
25 -16.2%
26 -17.4%
27 -18.7%
28 -18.8%
29 -19.1%
30 -19.3%
31 -23.8%
32 -25.8%

Using NFL Luck Rankings To Redefine Bad Beats

Our Predictive Analytics team rolled out our inaugural NFL Luck Rankings in Week 5 of the 2022 season as a tool to evaluate possible edges on spreads — and to redefine bad beats in the NFL.

These rankings account for a lot of factors, but they are largely focused on quantifying a team’s on-field performance and comparing it to the actual score of games.

As an example, let’s say the Cowboys are playing the Rams, and the Cowboys win 22-10 despite being 5.5-point underdogs. Hypothetically, you backed the Rams to cover the 5.5-point spread in this game.

In the classical sense of bad beat, you wouldn’t call losing by 12 and failing to cover by 17.5 points a bad beat.

But what if I told you the way these teams actually played on the field was much closer? In fact, what if I told you based off the start of every play, the Rams should have won the game by seven points and covered!? Now, I bet you feel a whole lot worse!

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