Bears-Cardinals Betting Preview: Is Arizona Undervalued at Home?


Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: David Johnson.

Sep 21, 2018, 04:00 AM EDT

Betting odds: Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals

  • Spread: Bears -5.5
  • Over/Under: 38
  • Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting Market: The Cardinals have looked so bad to start the season that 76% of bettors were on the Bears as a -5.5 road favorite at the time of writing (you can see updated odds data here).

That’s saying something. Chicago isn’t receiving enough sharp action to move up to -7 or even -6/-6.5, but it doesn’t look like the pros are confident enough in the Cardinals to take the Bears, either. — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The Cardinals managed six points in a Week 1 loss to the Redskins and were shut out by the Rams in Week 2.

Since 2003, teams that scored fewer than 10 points in back-to-back games have been undervalued by the market, going 57-35-1 (62%) against the spread, according to our Bet Labs data. — John Ewing

Talk about changing the narrative quickly. Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears are 5.5-point road favorites in Arizona in Week 3.

Trubisky has made seven career road starts before this week and he has never been a road favorite (closest he’s been is +5 at Detroit).

Welcome to the world of betting expectations, Mitch! — Evan Abrams

Injury watch: The only player on the Bears’ injury report is backup safety DeAndre Houston-Carson (forearm).

Larry Fitzgerald (hamstring) confirmed that he’s planning to play Sunday, while defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche (foot), left guard Mike Iupati (chest), defensive end Markus Golden (knee) and tight end Jermaine Gresham (Achilles) are each tentatively expected to suit up as well.

The status of right tackle Andre Smith (elbow) remains unclear.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Dashboard for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

Did you know? Since 2003, teams listed as underdogs in Week 3 that didn’t cover their first two games are 47-32 ATS (59.5%) for an ROI of 59.5%. — Stuckey

DFS edge: This game is sitting with a total of just 38 right now, and the Cardinals are implied for 16.25 points, the second-lowest implied total on the slate.

It’s difficult to envision the Cardinals generating any sort of offense in this game. They’ve scored just six points all season and face a Bears defense that ranks second in adjusted sack rate (per Football Outsiders), and has forced a league-high 10 sacks through two games.

The Bears’ defense has a Leverage Rating of 87% or higher on DraftKings and FanDuel. — Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Cardinals +6

I like contrarian value here. The Bears just won in front of a national audience on Monday Night Football, prompting a major overreaction from oddsmakers and adjusting for the inevitable wave of Chicago action coming from recreational bettors.

Westgate’s lookahead line was Bears -2.5 last week, and now we can grab the Cardinals at +6?

Yes, the Cards got blown out, 34-0, by the Rams last week, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing when it comes to betting value.

Just like the Raiders and Lions (both of whom covered in Week 2), teams coming off losses of 20 points or more are 403-338-17 (54.4%) ATS in their following game.

Teams coming off 30-point blowouts are slightly better at 108-80-8 (57.4%) ATS.

Give me the Cardinals and the free 3.5 points of line value. — PJ Walsh


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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