Lions-Dolphins Betting Preview: Do You Dare Wager on Brock Osweiler?

Lions-Dolphins Betting Preview: Do You Dare Wager on Brock Osweiler? article feature image
Credit:

Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Miami Dolphins quarterback Brock Osweiler (8).

Betting odds: Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins

  • Spread: Lions -3
  • Over/Under: 46.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: The line for this game opened on Wednesday morning, but it was taken off the board shortly after when Ryan Tannehill was declared out. It has since re-opened with the Lions as a 3-point favorite, which is less than what was expected.

The lookahead line for this game was Detroit -2 last week at Westgate, which was assuming Tannehill would be at quarterback. Bob “Scooch” Scucci said on The Favorites podcast that Detroit would be around -5.5 to -6 if Tannehill as declared out, but here we are at -3.

Even more surprising is the fact that only half the bettors are on the Lions at the time of writing (see live data here). Did Brock Osweiler win their hearts over that quickly?Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The Dolphins are 4-2 straight up and 4-2 against the spread. In Matthew Stafford’s career, he is 15-25-2 ATS (-10.8 units) when facing teams above .500 SU and ATS, the least profitable NFL quarterback in this spot since being drafted by Detroit in 2009. — Evan Abrams

Since the Lions’ opening-night loss to the Jets, Detroit has covered the spread in four consecutive games. Stafford has never covered five consecutive games in a single season.

With the Lions 4-1 ATS (80%) on the season, they are currently the second-most profitable team to wager on in the NFL, but their ATS average margin on the season is actually -0.9.

Since 2003, only one other team has played a game in any week, regular season or postseason, where they were covering 80% of their games with a negative ATS margin for the season: the Detroit Lions in Week 7, 2005. Lions were three-point dogs in Cleveland and won outright. — Abrams

Did you know? Last Sunday’s game was just the second time in 26 starts for Osweiler that the quarterback threw three touchdown passes in a game. Osweiler had thrown two or more touchdowns in eight previous games.

On average, Osweiler followed those performances by throwing 0.63 touchdowns and 0.88 interceptions in his next start. He has never thrown two or more touchdowns in consecutive games.John Ewing

Biggest mismatch: Lions offensive line vs. Dolphins pass rush

Per Pro Football Focus, Matthew Stafford has been kept clean on 71.1% of his dropbacks, and the Lions offensive line has surrendered just nine sacks this season, ranking eighth in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate.

Additionally, the Dolphins defensive line lost William Hayes (ACL) in September, and their current line is severely banged up as Andre Branch (knee) and Cameron Wake (knee) were limited in practice, and rotational lineman Jonathan Woodard (concussion) didn’t practice on Wednesday.

Stafford could have plenty of time to seek out his trio of receivers against PFF’s No. 26 pass-rushing unit. — Justin Bailey

Which team is healthier? Lions

Detroit running back Theo Riddick’s (knee) potential absence could signal a big week for Kerryon Johnson. The Lions are otherwise fairly healthy coming off their Week 6 bye.

The same can’t be said for the Dolphins, who will again turn to Osweiler with Tannehill (shoulder) hurting. Defensive ends Charles Harris (calf), Woodard (concussion) and Wake (knee) are question marks going into Sunday.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Dashboard for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: The Dolphins have moved stud corner Xavien Howard around the formation against Amari Cooper (2-17-0), A.J. Green (6-112-0), and Allen Robinson (5-64-1) this season, but each has been able to escape his shadow whenever they lined up in the slot.

It wouldn’t be surprising if Howard simply sticks to the left side of the field, where he should see a mix of Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay.

Golden Tate has caught at least five passes in six consecutive games dating back to last season and will mostly face off against the 2018 first-round slot corner Minkah Fitzpatrick.

Tate carries a strong +3.1 Projected Plus/Minus and GPP-friendly 90% Leverage Rating on DraftKings.Hartitz

Bet to watch: Lions -3

Detroit should be fresh coming off its bye, while Miami will be far from that after an extended overtime win and an offensive line that has been decimated by injuries.

That’s bad news with Osweiler slated to start.

The Lions’ advantages don’t stop there: Their defensive line ranks first in adjusted sack rate and offensive line first in power-rush blocking.

This should be a trench battle and Detroit is fresher, healthier and better equipped to win that battle up front. — Collin Wilson


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.