Dolphins-Packers Betting Preview: Trust Aaron Rodgers as a Massive Favorite?

Dolphins-Packers Betting Preview: Trust Aaron Rodgers as a Massive Favorite? article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers

Betting odds: Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers

  • Spread: Packers -10
  • Over/Under: 47.5
  • Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: The Packers are getting all the love with 80% of bets and 83% of dollars as of writing (see live data here), moving from -9 to -10 since opening.

The fact that Brock Osweiler was again named the starting quarterback definitely doesn’t help the Dolphins’ case, but he has gone 2-2 since taking over for the injured Ryan Tannehill.

This game has been completely devoid of sharp action. Mark Gallant

Weather report: The Dolphins will need to bring their winter coats to Green Bay, as temperatures will start in the mid-30s and drop into the low-30s throughout the course of the game. Wind is not expected to be a factor. Gallant

Trends to know: Aaron Rodgers is 14-4-1 (77.8%) against the spread when facing opponents over .500 in games with temperatures of 35 degrees or colder, earning bettors 9.2 units and making him the most profitable quarterback in this spot since 2003.Evan Abrams

The Packers are coming off back-to-back losses and are now double-digit favorites. According to our Bet Labs data, teams on a losing streak that are favored by 10 or more points have gone 20-24 ATS since 2003.John Ewing

Biggest mismatch: Packers in the trenches vs. Dolphins in the trenches

In a mismatch of epic proportions at quarterback, Green Bay should enjoy an enormous advantage in the trenches.

Rodgers should have all day to throw, which spells doom for Miami. The Dolphins can’t generate much of a pass rush as a result of injuries and offseason departures along the defensive line. Their defense ranks 29th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate.

Meanwhile, Packers left tackle David Bakhtiari has been one of the best in the league, posting a Pro Football Focus grade of 89.1. He should neutralize the Dolphins’ most consistent defensive lineman, Robert Quinn,

Running back Aaron Jones, who’s solid at picking up blitzes, should also have a big day on the ground against a defense that allows 4.4 yards per carry.

On the other side of the ball, Green Bay’s defensive front — which ranks fourth in adjusted sack rate — should eat up an absolutely decimated Miami offensive line.

Interior linemen Kenny Clark and Mike Daniels have been the strength of the Packers’ defense this season. They have plus-matchups inside against a number Dolphins backups.

Kenny-Clark-Mike-Daniels
Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mike Daniels (76) and Kenny Clark (97)

Things could get even worse on the outside with two injured tackles. Laremy Tunsil and Ja’Wuan James are both listed as questionable. And it doesn’t help that if Miami falls behind and needs Kenyan Drake to help the passing game that Drake has struggled with pass protection.

Green Bay should be able to generate pressure up the middle and on the edge to disrupt the entire Miami offense. That will ultimately mask some of the questions the Packers have on the back end with the recent departures at safety and with cornerback Kevin King listed as doubtful. Stuckey

Which team is healthier? Packers

Marquez Valdes-Scantling is locked into three-receiver sets alongside Davante Adams and Randall Cobb (hamstring) now that Geronimo Allison (core, IR) is out for the foreseeable future.

The defense isn’t 100% with King (hamstring), linebacker Blake Martinez (ankle) and Daniels (shoulder) banged up.

Still, the Packers are better off than a Dolphins team that will once again be without Tannehill (shoulder).

Tunsil (knee) and James (knee) are shaping up as game-time decisions, while wide receivers Jakeem Grant (Achilles) and Kenny Stills (groin) haven’t been able to practice fully all week.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: Valdes-Scantling is in play on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but he’s especially appealing on FanDuel, where he possesses a 94% Bargain Rating and a +2.86 Projected Plus/Minus. Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Packers -10

I rarely even think about laying double-digit points in the NFL, but I’ll step out and do so here.

Can you believe that the Dolphins enter this matchup as the team with a winning record? They have to be the most fraudulent 5-4 team in NFL history. Their four regulation wins came against the Jets (twice), Raiders and Titans. And their victory over Tennessee was when Blaine Gabbert played the majority of the game under center.

It doesn’t get worse than that for a Miami team that ranks 31st in net yards per drive (-9.15).

This is a good spot to buy the Packers, who are coming home (where they thrive) after two tough losses to two of the better teams in the NFL.

I also see way too many folks writing off Rodgers and this Packers team, completely ignoring the countless examples of them turning it on in November and December:

  • 2009: Started 4-4, finished 11-5
  • 2010: Started 3-3, finished 10-6
  • 2012: Started 3-3, finished 11-5
  • 2014: Started 5-3, finished 12-4
  • 2016: Started 4-6, finished 10-6

It’s also a perfect time to fade a fraudulent Dolphins team headed to Lambeau Field in the November cold. Plus, Miami just isn’t constructed to expose Green Bay’s primary weaknesses on either side of the ball.

If I’m going to bet a 10-point favorite, it might as well be Rodgers at home vs. Brock Osweiler.Stuckey


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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