Koerner: The 5 NFL Bets to Make Based on My Projections
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin
- Sean Koerner breaks down five NFL bets to make based on his Week 11 power ratings.
- See his spread and over/under picks for Patriots-Eagles, Texans-Ravens and more Sunday games.
Every week I use my NFL Power Ratings to project spreads and over/unders for every game and find the best bets. So which are still showing value?
Let’s take a look at five picks to make based on my power ratings in the following games:
- Cowboys at Lions: 1 p.m. ET
- Saints at Buccaneers: 1 p.m. ET
- Jets at Redskins: 1 p.m. ET
- Texans at Ravens: 1 p.m. ET
- Patriots at Eagles: 4:25 p.m. ET
Odds as of Sunday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.
Lions +7 vs. Cowboys
Earlier in the week I mentioned that I would dock the adjust the spread 3-4.5 points if the Lions had to start Jeff Driskel again, and sure enough, Matthew Stafford has since been ruled out for his second straight game.
I have this spread projected at 5.5, so there’s value on the Lions at +7.
Buccaneers +5.5 vs. Saints
The Saints lost straight up to the Falcons despite being 13.5-point favorites last week. It was not only a shocker that they lost, but that they got blown out 26-9 in their own building.
Before that game I had mentioned the Falcons had a ridiculous +3.1 edge in expected wins vs. actual compared to the Saints — a sign that the matchup would be much closer than their records indicated and that the market would offer value as a result.
Now this week the Buccaneers have a +3.0 edge in expected wins vs. actual. A lot of this has to do with the fact the Saints are 5-0 in one-score games while the Bucs are 2-4. The public is likely overrating the Saints and underrating the Bucs with 60% of the action coming in on New Orleans as of writing (see live public betting data here), dropping the line from -6 to -5.5.
Marshon Lattimore is also missing this game, which means the Saints won’t be equipped to contain the lethal WR duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
I have this spread pegged at 4, so Bucs +5.5 is one of my favorite plays of the week. Given that these are two higher-variance teams, I’d say the Bucs moneyline (+200 to +210) is also offering some sneaky value.
Redskins -2 vs. Jets
There’s some sneaky value on the Redskins given that their defensive line has been on fire, ranking ninth in generating pressure at 25.5% on the season.
Sam Darnold struggles mightily when under pressure and even admitted “seeing ghosts” in the pocket against the Patriots just a few weeks ago. He ranks 30th in QB rating when facing pressure. Dwayne Haskins is just as bad under pressure, but with improved offensive line health and a Jets defense that ranks 23rd in QB pressure (21.3%), he may not face it as much as Darnold.
With Derrius Guice set to return from IR, the Redskins should employ he and Adrian Peterson for a solid one-two punch that will allow the Redskins to take the ball out of Haskins’ hands. I’m going to plug my nose and take Washington here.
Texans-Ravens Under 51.5
After dropping as low as 49.5 earlier in the week, this total has been bet up to 51.5 with 84% of tickets and 90% of money coming in on the over, which means its now two full points higher than my projection.
The Ravens are also dead-last in pace (per Football Outsiders) while the Texans become the seventh-slowest team when trailing, so give me the under here.
Eagles +4.5 vs. Patriots
We saw the blueprint to beat the Patriots in their Week 9 loss to the Ravens. No, I’m not talking about Carson Wentz using his rushing ability the same way Lamar Jackson can — we all know that isn’t possible.
I’m talking about how the Ravens utilized 3-TEs to attack the Patriots’ pass defense. It seemed like a smart way to avoid the shutdown coverage from their secondary and top cornerback Stephon Gilmore. We could see the Eagles use a similar approach with their two stud TEs, Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert.
I have this spread projected at 3.5, so take the points with the home dog.