NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions For Giants vs. Chiefs: How Our Expert Is Betting Monday Night Football Spread
Getty Images. Pictured: Giants QB Daniel Jones, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
- NFL odds for Giants vs. Chiefs continue to move slightly heading into their Monday Night Football showdown, with the spread as high as -11 at some books.
- WIth Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney reportedly expected to play but their official statuses still unknown, where's the value on this game?
- Our expert outlines how he'd recommend betting the Monday Night Football spread and over/under based on the final injury report.
NFL Odds For Giants vs. Chiefs
|Time||8:15 p.m. ET|
The Chiefs are coming off an embarrassing 27-3 loss to the Titans while the Giants are coming off a resounding 25-3 win over the Panthers.
Can the Chiefs get back on track and force the Giants back down to Earth?
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Giants vs. Chiefs Injury Report
- RB Saquon Barkley (ankle): Out
- WR Kadarius Toney (ankle): Questionable
- WR Kenny Golladay (knee): Out
- WR Sterling Shepard (hamstring): Questionable
- TE Kaden Smith (knee): Questionable
- LB Carter Coughlin (ankle): Out
- LB Lorenzo Carter (ankle): Out
- S Nate Ebner (ankle): Out
- OT Mike Remmers (knee): Questionable
- DT Khalen Saunders (knee): Out
- LB Anthony Hitchens (triceps): Out
- CB Charvarius Ward (foot): Questionable
Giants vs. Chiefs Matchup
|Giants Offense||DVOA Rank||Chiefs Defense|
|Giants Defense||DVOA Rank||Chiefs Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Chiefs Have (Fixable) Turnover Issues
The Chiefs’ main issue on offense has been turnovers.
They’ve turned the ball over on 24.2% of their drives, most in the NFL. For comparison, last season they turned it over just 9.2%, eighth-lowest. But when they haven’t turned the ball over, they’ve been fine, leading the NFL with 40.7 yards per drive.
Most of the Chiefs’ turnovers have been self-inflicted, with Patrick Mahomes making ill-advised throws deep down the field instead of taking the easy throw underneath — five of his nine interceptions have come from a clean pocket, according to PFF — or players fighting for extra yardage and fumbling when they should go down.
In other words, the Chiefs’ issues on offense are correctable.
Despite blitzing at the 10th-highest rate (26.9%), the Giants are 29th in pressure rate (19.6%), per Pro Football Reference Advanced Stats. They don’t figure to disrupt Mahomes much in the pocket with a four-man rush, which is the sustainable way to beat him rather than hoping he and the offense continue to turn the ball over at a historic pace.
While under pressure this season, Mahomes is completing just 44.9% of his passes and has a four-to-four touchdown-to-interception ratio compared to a 76.4% completion rate with 14 touchdowns to five interceptions when kept clean.
Mahomes also has to be better about checking to runs when the pre-snap alignment dictates. Without starting running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (knee), there is a question as to how effectively the Chiefs can run on the Giants’ defense despite it being ranked 22nd in rush DVOA, as fill-in Darrel Williams is averaging only 3.5 yards per carry while Edwards-Helaire averaged 4.7.
Giants Chances To Keep Up Depend On Final Injury Report
Due to a rash of injuries, the Giants offense has been stuck in neutral for most of the year, ranking 24th in yards per drive (31.3) and 25th in points per drive (1.60).
The issue for the Chiefs is their defense has been the worst in the league, ranking dead last in points per drive (2.87) and yards per drive (40.8) allowed.
The Chiefs defense that will take the field against the Giants on Monday may not be quite that bad — defensive end Chris Jones is back after missing two games, and linebacker Willie Gay Jr. and safety Juan Thornhill’s roles have increased — but this is still a bottom-five unit until proven otherwise.
Without Saquon Barkley, the Giants are losing nearly a half-yard per carry, as Devontae Booker is averaging 3.2 to Barkley’s 3.6. But this Chiefs defense has been a swiss-cheese unit for years, as coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is often willing to concede the run, challenging teams to stick with it with Mahomes and Co. putting up points on the other side.
The Giants offenses hinges on the health of Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney.
Despite missing a combined four games, Shepard and Toney have combined for 30% of the team’s catches and 32% of its receiving yardage. With those guys in the lineup, Daniel Jones has receivers who can gain separation and win quickly in the short-to-intermediate area, allowing him to get rid of the ball more quickly when under pressure.
The Chiefs should be able to generate pressure, as they’re 12th in pressure rate this season (25.7%). They also blitz at the sixth-highest rate (31.2%), but this tends to work against Jones, who has a 75.8 passer rating under pressure and a 66.9 rating when blitzed compared to an 88.1 rating from a clean pocket.
NFL Picks For Giants vs. Chiefs
I have this game projected at Chiefs -8.5 with a total of 51, so I lean toward the Giants and the under.
If Shepard and Toney play, I would look to play the Giants, as 10 is a big number to cover the Chiefs are just 2-5 against the spread (ATS) as a favorite this season and 3-11 ATS as a favorite in their last 14 games dating back to last season. Shepard and Toney dramatically increase the chances of the Giants being able to get a backdoor, even if the Chiefs correct their turnover issues and build a three-score lead (which will be easier said than done).
If Toney and/or Shepard sits, I would look to play the under.
It will be a point of emphasis for Mahomes to check the ball down more and check into runs, so even if the Chiefs control the game, they are likely to go on longer scoring drives while the Giants offense wouldn’t be well-equipped to come back.
- Pick If Shepard & Toney Play: Giants +10
- Bet to: +9
- Pick If Shepard or Toney Are Out: Under 52.5
- Bet to: 51.5
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