The Atlanta Falcons (4-9) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) open NFL Week 15 on Thursday Night Football on December 11. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla. The game will broadcast live on Amazon Prime Video.
The Buccaneers are favored by 4.5 points on the spread (Buccaneers -4.5), with the over/under set at 44 points. The Buccaneers are -245 favorites on the moneyline and the Falcons are +200 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Thursday Night Football preview and Falcons vs Buccaneers prediction for tonight's NFC South clash.
Falcons vs Buccaneers Prediction
- Falcons vs Buccaneers pick: Falcons +4.5
My Falcons vs Buccaneers best bet is on the Falcons to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Falcons vs Buccaneers Odds
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | +200 |
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | -245 |
Falcons vs Buccaneers Thursday Night Football Preview
When the Falcons Have the Ball
The Falcons’ disappointing season effectively came to an end last week with their 37-9 loss to the Seahawks — Atlanta has been mathematically eliminated from the NFL playoff race.
It happened in typical Falcons fashion. They kept it close — the game was actually tied 6-6 at halftime. Then the second half hit: an opening kickoff return TD by Seattle, a fumble inside the Seahawks’ 20-yard line that turned into a TD the following drive, and a follow-up drive ending with a Kirk Cousins interception. The game went south fast.
The Falcons have had a strange season. They’re 4-9 but have only trailed 35% of the time, which is the 14th-lowest rate in the league. The other three teams that have also trailed exactly 35% of the time are the Bears (9-4), Chargers (9-4) and Dolphins (6-7), which averages out to an 8-5 record. You could easily argue the Falcons have been pretty unlucky to have the record they do (more on that later).
Atlanta's passing attack is definitely hurting right now with Drake London ruled out again and Kyle Pitts questionable with a knee injury. This is one of the worst WR rooms in the league at the moment, with Darnell Mooney, David Sills V and Dylan Drummond expected to be its top three WRs.
Tampa Bay ranks around league average in defensive pass DVOA (16th), but Bucs CB Jamel Dean is healthy and playing at a high level; the Buccaneers also generate pressure at the highest rate in the NFL thanks in large part to blitzing at a top-five rate.
However, Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins has been surprisingly good against the blitz. He has a 115 QB rating with five or more rushers compared to just 60.8 when teams don’t blitz.
Cousins is one of the least mobile QBs in the league and rarely leaves the pocket, so it makes sense that he can thrive if defenses force him to get the ball out quickly. He’s good at diagnosing where the soft spot is when coverage is thinned out.
But this is clearly a game where the Falcons need to attack on the ground with one of the best RB duos in the league in Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.
The Bucs are always solid against the run and rank ninth in defensive run DVOA. However, two key injuries lead me to believe their run defense could take a hit.
LB SirVocea Dennis has been ruled out with a hip injury and S Tykee Smith is doubtful with neck/shoulder injuries. Both have been huge in run support. Dennis has an elite 2.2% missed-tackle rate (fourth among LBs) and a 9.3% run stop rate (top 10). Smith’s 6.5% run stop rate ranks second among safeties. Losing both only amplifies the issue.
An interesting twist: it could be backup LB Deion Jones stepping into most of Dennis’ snaps (along with John Bullock). Jones is a former Falcon and their first-round pick in 2016, but he has been a liability in run defense.
This is a spot where Tampa Bay’s run defense could take a huge hit, and Atlanta can absolutely attack it with its thunder-and-lightning duo of Robinson and Allgeier behind RG Chris Lindstrom, who is one of the premier run blockers in the league.
When the Buccaneers Have the Ball
While the Falcons have struggled, the Buccaneers have spiraled since a 6-2 start. They’re 1-4 over their last five games since their Week 9 bye.
The Bucs have dealt with significant offensive injuries all season: missing WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin for multiple games, RB Bucky Irving missing most of the season, and LT Tristan Wirfs missing last week. But Wirfs has been removed from the injury report and should return tonight; Evans could return tonight as well after being activated from IR.
Even in a limited fashion, it would be the first time all season that Emeka Egbuka, Godwin and Evans are active together. This offense is at least trending up health-wise and could break out of their slump because of it.
The Falcons defense has been roughly league average and ranks 18th in DVOA. They are, however, eighth in pressure rate
and trending up thanks to rookie first-rounder James Pearce Jr., who is playing at a very high level right now.
Shortly after I highlighted him on Action Playbook Live as someone popping in my sack luck rankings — where I look for pass rushers likely to see sack rates rise or fall — he now has a sack in five straight games. Baker Mayfield could definitely be under pressure tonight — though Wirfs returning will help on that front.
Falcons vs Buccaneers Prediction, Betting Analysis
As I mentioned earlier, the Falcons have been playing much closer to an 8-5 team than a 4-9 team when you look at how often they keep games close. They are 1-5 in one-score games, and both of their overtime games ended in losses, which means they were technically tied after 60 minutes twice.
Any time a team ends up in that many one-score games, it means they were in near coin-flip situations where one or two bounces could have flipped their record.
Sure, you can blame some of that on caving under pressure or poor coaching decisions — those factors may still be why they lose close games at a higher rate. But in Atlanta’s case, I think it’s leading the market to overlook them as more of an “average” team rather than a true bottom-feeder team.
This lines up with our Luck Rankings, which have Atlanta 30th — making them the third-unluckiest team in the NFL — while the Buccaneers are the ninth-luckiest. That makes this a B-rated Luck Ranking game for the Falcons.
That’s a big part of why I’m taking the points with Atlanta. The market is underrating them, and even if its season is over, the players are still playing for pride and for future contracts. There’s no reason to think the Falcons will just roll over — especially to a division rival. And honestly, if this game follows the Falcons’ season pattern, they’ll play a close one, lose by a few points, and cover the spread.
There are matchup angles the market is overlooking: Tampa Bay’s run defense missing two key players, which sets up the perfect script for Atlanta to lean on the ground game, and the Falcons’ pass rush, led by rookie James Pearce Jr., suddenly becoming a real strength that can disrupt Baker Mayfield.
With Drake London ruled out, and Tristan Wirfs and Mike Evans cleared to return, plus Kyle Pitts still uncertain, I’m expecting money to continue flowing in on Tampa Bay.
This line could move up to 5.5 or even 6; I doubt it gets down to 4. And even if it moved to 3.5, we’d still have access to the key number of 3. There’s almost no scenario where this gets to 3 unless something happens to Mayfield pregame.
In conclusion, I’m taking the Falcons, but I'm also willing to time the market because I expect most of the action to come in on Tampa Bay from now until kickoff.
Pick: Falcons +4.5; bet to +3.5
Falcons vs Buccaneers Props
Bucky Irving Under 16.5 Rush Attempts (-119; DraftKings)
I was high on Bucky Irving entering his rookie season and thought he could push Rachaad White and potentially leapfrog him.
Sure enough, that’s what happened — but I viewed him more as a pass-catching specialist, which overlapped with White’s skill set, since White wasn’t very good on early downs. Irving has struggled in his sophomore season, though a lot of that can be chalked up to dealing with nagging injuries and missing multiple games this year.
Irving stepped back into the lead role in his two games since returning, but the inefficiency as a runner has remained. Out of 45 qualified RBs, he ranks second to last in success rate on runs (only ahead of Rhamondre Stevenson).
White ranks second, sandwiched between Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, who rank first and third, respectively. Sean Tucker doesn’t have enough attempts to qualify, but he would be well ahead of Irving (30th) — Tucker has always profiled as the better short-yardage back of the group.
I think the Bucs' coaching staff continues to tweak their usage and possibly lets White/Tucker see a bit more early down and short-yardage work, while focusing on getting Irving more involved as a pass-catcher, where he’s been elite with a league-high 12.9 YAC per reception.
We saw the Buccaneers trend toward the more optimal approach last week. Despite going ultra run heavy in the 24-20 loss to the Saints (39 rush attempts vs. 30 passes), Irving only had 15 carries because it was more of a 60/40 split with White on early downs.
It’ll be tough for Tampa Bay to rack up nearly 40 carries again tonight against Atlanta in a game where I think Falcons +4.5 is the sharp side.
It’ll also be the first time all season the Bucs have their top four WRs fully healthy in Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan. I’m projecting them to be a bit more pass heavy, which involves getting Irving the ball in space in the passing game, and likely keeps White/Tucker involved enough on early downs to cap Irving's upside in this market.
I’m projecting Irving closer to 15.4 rush attempts with around a 61% chance to stay under 16.5.
Note: If lines/odds move by the time you read this, make sure to follow Sean in the Action Network
app to get alerts when he places a bet. These writeups, however, still offer invaluable insight into his process.
Spread
As I covered extensively above, there are a number of reasons why I believe the market is vastly underestimating the Falcons tonight — thus I'm taking them to cover.
The best line at the time of writing is Falcons +4.5, but monitor it in case it moves to +5 or higher.
Moneyline
I have no play for either moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no bet for the game total.
