The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) host the Atlanta Falcons (4-9) for NFL Thursday Night Football on December 11. Kickoff from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla., is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. TNF will broadcast on Prime Video.
The Buccaneers are 5-point favorites over the Falcons on the spread (Buccaneers -5), the game total is 44 points. Tampa Bay is a -260 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Atlanta is +210 to pull off the upset.
Below, you can find our Falcons vs Buccaneers picks for Thursday Night Football, which include predictions for the spread, game total and two player props.
Falcons vs Buccaneers Picks & Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Thursday Night Football Odds
- Falcons vs Buccaneers Moneyline: Falcons +210, Buccaneers -260
- Falcons vs Buccaneers Spread: Falcons +5, Buccaneers -5
- Falcons vs Buccaneers Total: 44
Falcons vs Buccaneers odds via bet365
Falcons vs Buccaneers Spread Prediction
By Billy Ward
The Buccaneers are coming off a shocking upset loss to the Saints that has damaged their playoff hopes. While the Bucs are still in the driver’s seat of the NFC South, three of their last four games are against division rivals, including two against the Panthers, who have an identical 7-6 record.
That makes this a must-win game against the Falcons, who are 4-9 and have nothing but pride left to play for. Atlanta has lost seven of its last eight games after a 3-2 start, and have been a much worse team since being forced to go back to Kirk Cousins at QB.
The big problem for the Bucs last week was the rushing ability of Saints QB Tyler Shough, who ran for two touchdowns. Cousins hasn’t rushed for a score since 2022, so that’s not a concern here.
Additionally, Tampa Bay managed just 122 yards of passing offense. There’s good news on that front as well, with Mike Evans reportedly set to make his return on Thursday. That gives Tampa its full complement of offensive weaponry for the first time in a while.
The Falcons are still without star wide receiver Drake London, and might also be missing tight end Kyle Pitts (questionable), who has stepped up considerably in London’s absence.
I’m not sure how the Falcons keep this one competitive, so I’ll lay the 4.5 points with the Bucs.
Pick: Buccaneers -4.5 (-115)
Falcons vs Buccaneers Over/Under Pick
The Buccaneers offense has quietly continued to be one of the worst in the NFL over the past two months. In their last seven games, the Bucs’ 4.4 yards per play ranks 31st in the league.
During the same span, Baker Mayfield has generated just 5.3 yards per pass attempt, a league low for quarterbacks with significant playing time.
The Falcons offense has not been much better, and even when they find success on 1st and 2nd down, they continue to struggle on 3rd down. The Falcons are second-to-last in 3rd-down conversion rate, and they are certain to face several key 3rd-down situations tonight.
The Tampa Bay defense has been excellent against the run this season. Opposing offenses have a 42% rush success rate against the Bucs, which makes them the second-best unit league-wide, and matches their ranking in adjusted line yards per rush.
Teams also rarely move the chains on the ground against the Bucs, who are only one of five teams to allow 65 or fewer rushing first downs this year.
This means Kirk Cousins will be responsible for sustaining drives for the Falcons, and without Drake London in the mix, I don’t believe Cousins can consistently convert in the situations needed.
In addition to the difficulties both passing attacks will face in this game, we are getting to play this total below the key number of 44, making this under even more enticing.
Pick: Under 44.5 (-115); bet to Under 44
Falcons vs Buccaneers Player Props: Bijan Robinson
Bijan Robinson has had at least 39 receiving yards in three of his last four games and in 9-of-13 games this season.
Even in a mediocre matchup and projected game script, this would be an appealing number. The fact that the Falcons are 4.5-point underdogs could lead to more dropbacks for Kirk Cousins and more targets for Robinson.
The real selling point here is a matchup against the Buccaneers, who are very tough against the run but have allowed more receiving yards to running backs than any other team in the NFL this season.
Pick: Bijan Robinson Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Falcons vs Buccaneers Player Props: Mike Evans
By Derek Carty
There is a value opportunity on Mike Evans' receiving yards prop tonight.
THE BLITZ is projecting Evans to record 33.29 receiving yards, while sportsbooks imply 52.51. Evans has been sidelined since Week 7 after breaking his collarbone; it's unclear how much he'll be utilized after such a long absence, not to mention the Bucs offense will be fully healthy for the first time with Emeka Egbuka, Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin.
The model believes there is a 73% chance he records fewer than 45.5 receiving yards, so there is some value on the under at -105. This play is good down to at least -176.
Pick: Mike Evans Under 45.5 Receiving Yards (-105; bet to -176)
