Saints vs. Jets Odds, Predictions, Picks: Bet On Alvin Kamara to Run Wild Against New York In NFL Week 14
Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images. Pictured: Saints RB Alvin Kamara
- With a 5.5-point spread and 42.5-point over/under, our analyst doesn't see value on the latest Saints vs. Jets odds -- but he's still found a betting angle.
- With the projected game script and the Jets' porous rush defense, find out how he's betting this Alvin Kamara prop.
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.|
After a disappointing loss last week at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles, the New York Jets will look to right the ship Sunday when they host the New Orleans Saints at MetLife Stadium.
The Jets (3-9) found themselves with an early 12-7 lead in last week’s game, but ultimately saw their defense surrender 26 points after the first quarter in an eventual 33-18 loss at home. Meanwhile, the Saints (5-7) fell victim to the Dallas Cowboys at home in a 27-17 defeat.
While the Jets are already out of the playoff picture, the Saints find themselves on the bubble and need a win to stay in contention.
That said, should we look for the Saints to cover this 5.5-point spread on the road or should we look elsewhere — perhaps to the prop market — for value in this Week 14 matchup?
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Saints vs. Jets Injury Report
- LB Pete Werner (elbow): Out
- RT Ryan Ramczyk (knee): Out
- LB Kaden Elliss (hamstring): Out
- WR Lil’ Jordan Humphrey (hamstring): Questionable
- RB Michael Carter (concussion): Out
- RB Tevin Coleman (concussion): Out
- TE Trevon Wesco (ankle): Out
- WR Elijah Moore (quad): Questionable
- TE Ryan Griffin (knee/ankle): Questionable
- OL Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (ankle): Questionable
- LB CJ Mosley (back): Questionable
- DL Sheldon Rankins (knee): Questionable
- DL John Franklin-Myers (hip): Questionable
Saints vs. Jets Matchup
|Saints Offense||DVOA Rank||Jets Defense|
|Saints Defense||DVOA Rank||Jets Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Saints in Must-Win Spot
After a start last week that saw him both rush for more than 100 yards and throw four interceptions, Taysom Hill will find himself behind center again.
He’ll have a strong opportunity to put that behind him when he takes on a Jets team that ranks 32nd in both Total DVOA and Pass DVOA, while also ranking 30th against the run. Between Hill’s rushing prowess and the return of Alvin Kamara, the Saints running game should be firing on all cylinders.
As one of the most dynamic backs in the game, Kamara’s presence will be welcomed. While he was struggling with efficiency prior to the injury, averaging just 3.4 yards per attempt in the four games, he’ll return to a perfect get-right spot against the Jets’ sieve defense. With backfield-mate Mark Ingram on the COVID-19 list and a 5.5-point spread in their favor, look for Kamara to exceed the 18.3 rushing attempts he’s averaged so far this season.
The passing matchup for Hill is also a good one, but the Saints will likely play to their strength and keep the ball on the ground. Following Hill’s four interceptions last week and a poor 46% completion rate against the Cowboys, that will be a welcomed relief for the offense. Expect the run early and often in this one from the Saints.
Jets Need Morale Boost But Won’t Find it Here
When compared against what we saw earlier in the season, quarterback Zach Wilson has shown solid progress since returning from his injury two weeks ago. During that time, he’s completed 60% of his passes for 371 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Considering he threw just four touchdowns to go with nine interceptions in his first six starts, the Jets will certainly welcome the improvement.
That said, the matchup this week will not be an easy one. He’ll have a tough task against a Saints defense that currently ranks fifth in Total DVOA and 12th against the pass. Per PFF’s WR/CB Matchup tool, it’s no surprise that none of the Jets receiving options matchup well in this one. Rookie Elijah Moore has the best outlook of the group with a 53.4 matchup advantage against his primary defenders, but that’s not exactly inspiring.
Things won’t be much easier against the run for the Jets. The Saints defense currently ranks first in Rush DVOA, so don’t expect much from running back Ty Johnson in this one. While Johnson has been serviceable, averaging 3.8 yards per carry this season, he’s yet to see more than 12 carries in a game. Against this Saints stout front seven, I don’t expect we’ll see a breakout game.
Saints vs. Jets Predictions, Picks
With Hill behind center and Kamara back in the starting lineup, it’s safe to say that we’ll see a heavy dose of the run from the Saints. Both of his change of pace options — Ingram and Ty Montgomery — are out, leaving just Dwayne Washington (four total carries) as the only option behind Kamara.
In last week’s game, Hill had 11 rushing attempts in a game where the Saints were trailing and looking for chunk plays. His 46% completion rate via the air, coupled with his four interceptions, undoubtedly led to more scrambling than the Saints would prefer.
If the implied game script holds true, the Saints will be up and able to control the clock via the run in this one. While there will certainly be plays designed for Hill to run the ball himself again, Kamara should also see an uptick above the 18.3 carries he’s averaged on the season.
His current rushing prop sits at just 67.5 yards at the time of writing, which considered against the projected game script and the fact he’ll be running against the Jets’ 30th-ranked rush defense, makes this prop extremely desirable.
In fact, Kamara has already surpassed that mark in four of eight games that he’s played this season. While that ratio may not be particularly encouraging, three of those instances were similar game scripts in which the Saints were favored and in control throughout.
While there is some risk given he’s just returning from injury, the Saints have been incredibly careful with his rehab and wouldn’t bring him back if he wasn’t able to handle a full workload.
As such, I’m taking the over on this rushing prop and would comfortably play it as high as 71 yards.
Pick: Alvin Kamara Over 67.5 Rushing Yards | Bet to: 71
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