NFL Prop Bet: Bet This Chris Herndon Under For Broncos vs. Jets On Thursday Night Football (Oct. 1)

Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite props for every slate throughout the 2020 season — he's 30-15 (66.7%) so far and has a 233-163-5 (58.8%) all-time record on NFL bets he's tracked in the Action app.

Find his pick for the Thursday Night Football showdown between the Broncos and Jets below. And if you're looking for more action, his projections also power the FantasyLabs NFL Player Prop Tool, which grades every prop.

NFL Prop Bet: Broncos vs. Jets

• The Pick: Jets TE Chris Herndon Under 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
• Bet Now:BetMGM

Chris Herndon failed to capitalize on the Jets' laundry list of wide receiver injuries over the past two games — not to mention both were blowouts, which should have resulted in defenses allowing him plenty of garbage-time chances.

Well, tonight's game should be "competitive" for all four quarters, and target-hog Jamison Crowder makes his return. And add in the fact that rookie left tackle Mekhi Becton (shoulder) is expected to miss the game — meaning Herndon will likely stay in to block more — and I love the under on his receiving prop.

I re-watched every single one of Herndon's targets (so you don't have to), and it made me even more comfortable with this angle.

His average depth of target of 5.3 yards was apparent when watching his film. The Jets designed many of his targets into the flat, where he was unable to turn it into a big play. They were plays you would typically draw up for Alvin Kamara — not Chris Herndon — which is why he could still go under this number even if he manages to grab 4-5 balls tonight.

The most effective routes Herndon has run this season have been when he lines up to the left of Becton, releases into either a curl or post route (depending on how the linebacker covers it) down the middle of the field.

Let's walk through a quick example of Herndon lining up next to Becton pre-snap in their Week 1 game against the Bills:

Herndon then released for a wide-open curl over the middle of the field for an easy 8-yard gain. They ran this same play later in that same game for a wide-open 18 yard gain.

Now with Becton likely out, the Jets might scrap that play from the playbook. Even if they don't, we could see Herndon stay in to block on it while Crowder steals the designed routes.

I have Herndon projected for 3.6 receptions and a median of 29.5 yards tonight, and my player prop simulator has him finishing under 35.5 yards 61.8% of the time. Every yard matters in this market, so make sure you get the best number possible. To help, I've outlined the chances of Herndon going over or under various lines. Personally, I would bet this down to 32.5.

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