NFL Prop Bet: The Top Giants-Eagles Pick For Thursday Night Football

NFL Prop Bet: The Top Giants-Eagles Pick For Thursday Night Football article feature image
Credit:

Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Greg Ward

Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite prop(s) for every slate throughout the 2020 season — he’s 50-27 (64.9%) so far and has a 256-177-5 (59.1%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.

Find his picks for the Thursday Night Football doubleheader featuring the Giants and Eagles. And if you’re looking for more action, his projections also power the FantasyLabs NFL Player Prop Tool, which grades every prop.

NFL Prop Bet for Giants-Eagles

  • The Pick: Greg Ward Over 3.5 Rec (+115)
  • Bet Now: DraftKings

The player I want to invest on Thursday night is Greg Ward because I believe he offers some hidden upside.

DeSean Jackson is returning to the lineup tonight, which should shuffle the Eagles’ wide receiver rotation quite a bit. But Ward and Travis Fulgham should still continue to see ~75-80% of the snaps on Thursday while John Hightower will be the WR who concedes his snaps for DJax.

Ward operates mostly out of the slot and could see an increase in targets with Zach Ertz out of the lineup. You can see two of their recent route trees below (courtesy of NextGen stats) to see how Ward could absorb one to two more targets without Ertz roaming around the same area of the field as Ward:

Last week, Ward had to face off against shutdown slot corner Marlon Humphrey for much of the game, which explains his 2/19/0 box score. But tonight he’ll have a much easier matchup against fourth-round rookie Darnay Holmes, who has struggled this season, as evidenced by his 39.9 Pro Football Focus grade.

I’m projecting Ward for 5-6 targets tonight, but he’s likely going to be Carson Wentz’s main safety valve with both Ertz and Miles Sanders out. It’s risky betting on his receiving yards because of his 5.7 average depth of target (third-lowest among qualified WRs). Ward sees high-percentage throws (as seen by his 71% catch rate) designed to rack up a handful of yards at a time. Therefore it makes more sense to attack the over 3.5 receptions. I would bet this up to -130.

Here are the projected chances of Ward going over or under each receptions number in my 10,000 sims:

Rec
Over
Under
0.5
98.0%
2.0%
1.5
90.1%
9.9%
2.5
74.7%
25.3%
3.5
54.7%
45.3%
4.5
35.2%
64.8%
5.5
19.9%
80.1%
6.5
10.1%
89.9%
7.5
4.5%
95.5%

[Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 bonus, including a $500 risk-free bet]