The Philadelphia Eagles (8-4) and Los Angeles Chargers (8-4) close NFL Week 14 on Monday Night Football on December 8. Kickoff is set for in 8:15 p.m. ET from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif. The game will broadcast live on ABC/ESPN.
The Eagles are 2-point favorites over the Chargers on the spread (Eagles -2), with the over/under set at 42. The Eagles are -130 moneyline favorites; the Chargers are +110 underdogs.
Let's get into my Monday Night Football preview Eagles vs Chargers prediction.
Eagles vs Chargers Prediction
- Eagles vs Chargers pick: Under 42 (bet to 41)
My Eagles vs Chargers best bet is under 42. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Eagles vs Chargers Odds
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 42 -110o / -110u | -130 |
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 42 -110o / -110u | +110 |
Eagles vs Chargers Monday Night Football Preview
Philadelphia Eagles Betting Preview
Note: All data via FTN unless otherwise noted.
Justin Herbert (left hand) has rightfully dominated the injury news leading up to this game, but don't overlook that the Eagles will be without right tackle Lane Johnson (foot) for the third straight game.
Johnson grades out in the 79th percentile among tackles at PFF this season; he finished between the 83rd and 93rd percentile in every other season of the Nick Sirianni era. Per PFF, fill-in right tackle Fred Johnson has already surrendered more pressures (9) and sacks (1) than Johnson (7, 0) on 104 fewer pass-blocking opportunities.
Philadelphia's run game takes a hit as well with Johnson out. The Eagles averaged just 75.0 rushing yards per game over the last two games with Johnson out against the Cowboys and Bears, who allow per-game averages of 123.5 (20th) and 133.8 (29th), respectively.
In 11 games without Johnson in the Sirianni era, the Eagles are 4-7 straight up (SU) and 3-7-1 against the spread (ATS) with a -5.7 point differential and a -7.3 ATS differential. The full-game total is 7-4 toward the under in those contests, and the Eagles' implied team total has gone 7-4 toward the under as well.
The Chargers play zone at the third-highest rate (79.5%). Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is averaging 0.016 EPA/dropback versus zone — more than 12 times less than his mark against man (0.203).
Opposing defenses have started to figure out the Eagles offense over the last month, with the Eagles averaging 15.5 points per game in four games in November. Zones tend to force quarterbacks to throw short/underneath and lead receivers into open space, which has been a struggle this season under new offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo.
Last season, Hurts was No. 1 among 43 qualified passers with 8.2 YPA and an 89.8% adjusted completion rate on passes thrown with a depth of 0-9 yards. This season, Hurts ranks 33rd in YPA (5.8) and 29th in adjusted completion rate (81.8%) on such passes.
The Eagles have slipped to 28th in third-down conversion rate (34.5%) and face a Chargers defense that ranks fourth in third-down conversion rate allowed (34.8%).
Both Hurts (3.9) and Saquon Barkley (3.7) are under 4.0 YPC this season, but it wouldn't be surprising if they look to their running game to attempt to stay ahead of the chains. The Chargers rank eighth in DVOA against the pass, but 25th versus the run, though they have been better since Khalil Mack and Denzel Perryman returned from injury in Week 7.
Mack and Perryman have played at least 40% of the defensive snaps in each of the past five games, and the Chargers are allowing 3.76 YPC and 83.6 rushing yards per game over that span. Prior to Week 8, with one or both unavailable for their usual allotment of snaps, the Chargers allowed 5.06 YPC and 123.6 yards per game on the ground.
Los Angeles Chargers Betting Preview
The Chargers are also hurting at the two most important positions on offense: quarterback and tackle.
At quarterback, Justin Herbert underwent successful surgery Monday to stabilize a fractured bone in his left non-throwing hand and is listed as questionable but expected to start. If he misses, backup Trey Lance is a big downgrade.
At tackle, they entered the season already down Rashawn Slater (IR-knee), who graded out second of 81 qualified tackles with a 90.9 PFF grade last season, and then in Week 9 lost Joe Alt (IR-ankle), who ranks 13th of 82 tackles this season with a 79.0 grade.
In three games since Alt went down in Week 9, Herbert is averaging just 6.36 yards per pass attempt. He has been sacked a whopping 10 times on 81 dropbacks for a sack rate of 12.3% over that span — which would be the highest rate in the NFL among qualifiers over the full season. Including the game Alt went down, Herbert's been sacked 16 times on 116 dropbacks, for an even worse 13.8% rate.
Herbert's injury prevented him from taking snaps from under center in the final three quarters against the Raiders, and that could very well be the case again on Monday night. That's an advantage for the Eagles — Vic Fangio's defense has allowed 6.1 YPA with 5 TDs, 7 INT from the 'gun compared to 8.7 YPA with 7 TD, 1 INT under center. Herbert is averaging 6.6 YPA with 16 TD, 9 INT from shotgun compared to 8.8 YPA with 5 TD, 1 INT under center.
Fangio dials up man coverage at the second-highest rate in the league (44.9%), which is what you want to do against Herbert and the Chargers' skilled receiving corps. Herbert averages a full yard per dropback less versus man (5.0) than zone (6.0), and his EPA/dropback is 0.005 vs. man compared to 0.044 vs. zone.
The Eagles have been more vulnerable to runs from the shotgun, allowing 4.8 YPC compared to 4.4 YPC under center. The Eagles are ranked sixth in DVOA against the pass, but 22nd versus the run.
Per NFLElo, the Chargers are fifth in pass rate over expected (+2.6%), but the Eagles losing 314-pound DT Jalen Carter (shoulder) coupled with the Chargers getting back RB Omarion Hampton (ankle) will likely result in a run-heavier game plan from offensive coordinator Greg Roman, especially with Herbert not 100%.
Eagles vs Chargers Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Eagles are 7-5 toward the under this season, including 4-0 in their last four. Two of their overs came against the Giants' league-worst run defense and uber-mobile quarterback. They have also been a smash under team with Lane Johnson out, going under at a 63.6% clip without Johnson in the Nick Sirianni era.
Meanwhile, the Chargers have been under in 2-of-3 since Joe Alt went down. Both defenses will be the best units on the field in this matchup, so I'm expecting points to be at a premium yet again.
As both 41 and 43 are key numbers, it may be worth waiting until inactives come out to bet the total — there's an outside shot it ticks up to 43 once Herbert is officially active.
Pick: Under 42 (bet to 41)
Other parlay angles:
- Eagles team total under (64% under with Lane Johnson out since 2021; Eagles have scored 21 or fewer in 7-of-12 this season)
- Jalen Hurts passing yardage/TD unders (struggles efficiency-wise vs. zone)
- DeVonta Smith overs (2.11 YPRR vs. zone; 1.58 vs. man, per PFF)
- A.J. Brown unders (1.76 YPRR vs. zone; 3.33 vs. man, per PFF)
- Oronde Gadsden II unders (0.58 YPRR vs. man; 2.82 vs. zone, per PFF)
- Kimani Vidal overs (Harbaugh hinted Vidal could remain RB1 even with Hampton back)
Spread
I lean Chargers, but the Herbert injury creates too much uncertainty to use it outside of a parlay piece.
For what it's worth. we've tracked seven sharp moves on the Chargers in the Action app.
Moneyline
I have no play for either side of the moneyline.
Over/Under
Under 42 is my pick for this game
