Our NFL Luck Rankings have proven to be a highly successful tool for betting NFL sides and totals.
In the three seasons since we introduced the Luck Rankings, games that met significant thresholds for sides or totals have gone 166-115-4 (59.1%) against closing lines, the hardest lines to beat!
This year, we introduced Version 3.0 of our Luck Rankings as a way to continue to improve the methodology, as well as to simplify the thresholds and give you even better luck metrics.
As part of that, we've introduced something called the "Luck Score." This single number will tell us whether a game has a significant luck factor.
If the Luck Score is 1.454 or higher, we'll consider that a luck-based side. In addition, associated with each Luck Score will be a letter grade and a Luck-Based Cover% (LBC%). Anything with a "D" and up is playable, with expected improved results as we go up the letter-grade scale (from D to A).
Unlucky teams meeting this 1.454 Luck Score and D-rated threshold or better are 166-114-7 against the closing spread since the start of 2018. That equates to a 59.3% cover rate when pushes are removed over a sample size of more than 280 games.
In Week 14, the unlucky teams went 3-0 ATS, moving luck-based sides to 23-15 (60.5%) ATS on the year. In these 38 games, the unlucky team has covered by an average of 2.6 points.
For Luck Totals, the criteria is as follows:
- Luck Overs: Luck Total of +1.5 or above
- Luck Unders: Luck Total of -1 or below
However, there are even stronger thresholds for Luck Totals, which we'll call "strong" Luck Overs or Unders:
- Strong Luck Overs: Luck Total of +2.0 or above
- Strong Luck Unders: Luck Total of -1.8 or below
Luck Totals went 0-2 last week, with both the weak Luck Under and the strong Luck Under going over the closing total. Overall, that puts weak Luck Totals at 14-15 (48.3%) while strong Luck Totals move to 4-5 (44.4%) on the season.
All sides and strong total bets are 27-20 (57.4%), while all bets, including the weak totals, are 41-35 (53.9%).
Based on our Week 15 NFL Luck Rankings, there are five luck-based sides and two Luck Totals. Let's dive in.
