Every Sunday night, I reveal the early NFL bets I made before the following week. NFL lines tend to move quickly so it's important to assess the information at hand and try to make the best betting decisions early if you can.
Here are the NFL Week 15 picks I made — for Falcons vs Buccaneers, Dolphins vs Steelers and Colts vs Seahawks — before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
Last year, my early NFL hot reads went 21-15-2 (58%) against the spread (ATS); the previous year checked in at 23-9-1.
NFL Week 15 Picks & Predictions
Falcons vs Buccaneers Over/Under Prediction
This is an ugly one. Both teams are coming off downright embarrassing losses on Sunday, and neither offense inspires much faith right now.
Kirk Cousins is struggling, Atlanta has dropped seven of its last eight, and the season already feels lost. Baker Mayfield hasn’t been much better — he ranks second to last in EPA per play since Week 7 — and the Buccaneers offense looks adrift.
At this point, the defenses might actually be the better units for both teams, which tells you all you need to know. Tampa Bay’s run defense is the stronger half of its roster, while Atlanta’s pass defense remains its most reliable trait. That actually lines up well with what each team wants to do.
The short week only adds to the mess. Key offensive pieces — Tristan Wirfs, Mike Evans, Drake London — are all in doubt. And the field in Tampa just got torn apart by heavy rain on Sunday, so expect sloppy conditions. That’s usually bad news for anyone betting on points.
Historically, this is the profile of a Thursday night dud. Division unders from Week 14 on hit at a 56% clip when the home favorite is laying less than a touchdown, and totals between 43 and 47 hit at the same rate. Add it all up, and this has the feel of a classic TNF under. Make alternate plans for your evening.
The key numbers from 40 to 44 are already being attacked, with the market slipping toward 44 and 43.5. I grabbed Under 44.5 (-110) at DraftKings.
Picks: Under 44.5 (-110; DraftKings)
Dolphins vs Steelers Over/Under Prediction
Both defenses are trending up, and Pittsburgh’s offense is trending down, even if last week’s game against Baltimore briefly disguised it. Jordan Love roasted the Steelers, too — so it’s not as if the arrow is pointing in the right direction.
Miami enters this one having quietly played like a top-six defense by DVOA over the last six games, including No. 1 against the run. That matches up well with an Arthur Smith offense that wants to live on the ground.
The results reflect it: Four Steelers games have landed at 35 points or fewer already this season. Five Dolphins games have finished at 41 or below — and now six straight have closed at 44 or lower. Non-Thursday primetime unders are hitting 61%, including 60% this year.
Totals that fall at least a point between 39 and 44 cash the under 55% of the time.
This number opened at 43.5 on Sunday morning, and I grabbed the early under right away since 40–44 are critical bands for totals. After a brief move up, the market is sinking again, with some shops already showing 42.5.
Picks: Under 44.5 (-110; Caesars)
NFL Futures Prediction: Defensive Rookie of the Year
Nick Emmanwori — Defensive Rookie of the Year (+3000)
Nick Emmanwori checked half the boxes for a DROY résumé in one afternoon: a sack, an interception, and a blocked field goal — the type of splash plays that stick in voters’ minds. In a rookie class without a clear statistical standout, that alone is enough to move markets.
I grabbed him at 60-1 earlier right after the first extra point, and already had Carson Schwesinger at 35-1. But with Cleveland’s defense fading and Schwesinger leaving Sunday's game with an injury, this race feels wide open again.
Defensive awards often come down to big, memorable plays. Myles Garrett looks like a lock for DPOY, and voters rarely give both awards to the same defense. Rewarding a Seattle defender in a volatile rookie class wouldn’t be surprising.
The market can move fast — Emmanwori's around 30-1 at BetRivers and 25-1 at FanDuel — and it wouldn’t shock me if he’s +300 in short order.
Pick: Nick Emmanwori — Defensive Rookie of the Year (+3000; BetRivers)
Anderson's Early NFL Week 15 Bets
- Under 44.5 (-110; DraftKings)
- Under 44.5 (-110; Caesars)
- Nick Emmanwori — Defensive Rookie of the Year (+3000; BetRivers)
