NFL Prop Picks: The Seahawks-Cardinals Prop To Bet For Sunday Night Football

NFL Prop Picks: The Seahawks-Cardinals Prop To Bet For Sunday Night Football article feature image
Credit:

Stephen Maturen/Getty Images. Pictured: Andy Isabella

Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite prop(s) for every slate throughout the 2020 season — he was 51-27 (65.4%) heading into Sunday’s games with a 257-177-5 (59.2%) overall record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.

Find his picks for Sunday Night Football featuring the Seahawks at Cardinals. And if you’re looking for more action, his projections also power the FantasyLabs NFL Player Prop Tool, which grades every prop.

NFL Prop Bet for Seahawks-Cardinals

  • The Pick: Andy Isabella Over 19.5 Rec Yards (-112)
  • Bet Now: DraftKings

Kyler Murray struggled against the Cowboys last week, completing only 9-of-24 passes for 188 yards, easily cashing the under 287.5 (i.e. my favorite prop of that Monday night game).

Murray just missed Andy Isabella for a would-be 72-yard touchdown on the first drive of that matchup, and Isabella ended up going catch-less, but this presents an excellent buy low opportunity for Isabella in a game in which I expect the passing offense to bounce back in a potential shootout.

Last week, the Cardinals ran fewer 4-WR sets in their 38-10 win, which is why Isabella’s routes run per dropback fell to 32% (after averaging 47% over the previous three games). I expect that jump back up into the 50% range (or higher) considering the Cardinals offense will be attempting to keep up with Russell Wilson and the Seahawks.

The Seahawks will be without stud safety Jamal Adams, which is a massive blow to a defense that’s been torched for 70 or more receiving yards by 11 different wide receivers through five games. Given DeAndre Hopkins will be at less than 100% while playing through an ankle injury, he may be more of a decoy, freeing up a player like Isabella to eat.

Isabella is a boom-or-bust player with a wide range of outcomes, but I am projecting him for roughly three targets tonight, and he could clear this number on a single catch. I have this line closer to 28.5, and considering how great of an environment this matchup is for Isabella, I would bet it up to that.

Here’s how often Isabella cleared the receiving yards in this range in my 10,000 player prop simulations:

Rec Yds
Over
Under
19.5
60.9%
39.1%
20.5
58.7%
41.3%
21.5
56.8%
43.2%
22.5
55.9%
44.1%
23.5
55.3%
44.7%
24.5
54.4%
45.6%
25.5
53.3%
46.7%
26.5
52.6%
47.4%
27.5
51.7%
48.3%
28.5
50.7%
49.3%

[Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 bonus, including a $500 risk-free bet]