The NFL Prop To Bet For Cardinals vs. Cowboys on Monday Night Football

The NFL Prop To Bet For Cardinals vs. Cowboys on Monday Night Football article feature image
Credit:

Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyler Murray

  • Kyler Murray has thrown for more than 287 yards is only one of five games this season.
  • Find out why it's not likely that the Cardinals quarterback makes that two of six on Monday Night Football.
  • Sean Koerner breaks down his favorite NFL prop bet for the Cardinals vs. Cowboys showdown below.

Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite prop(s) for every slate throughout the 2020 season — he’s 48-27 (64%) so far and has a 255-176-5 (59.2%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.

Find his picks for the Monday Night Football doubleheader featuring the Chiefs at Bills (5 p.m. ET) and Cardinals at Cowboys (8:15 p.m. ET). And if you’re looking for more action, his projections also power the FantasyLabs NFL Player Prop Tool, which grades every prop.


NFL Prop Bet for Cardinals-Cowboys

  • The Pick: Kyler Murray Under 287.5 Pass Yards (-115)
  • Bet Now: BetMGM

I’m projecting Murray at 273.5 passing yards for tonight.

The matchup sets up for each offense to play “keep away” as a way to keep their defense off the field. That will undoubtedly be the Cowboys game plan as I expect them to feed Ezekiel Elliott at a much higher rate from now on with Dak Prescott out for the season. They should engineer a few clock-killing drives and keep the Cardinals offense off the field.

I can see the Cardinals offense operating similarly. Murray should be able to move the ball with ease against the Cowboys defense. However, he has been opting to pull the ball down and use his legs a lot more this season, averaging 59 rushing yards per game. Every time he runs for a significant gain, it’ll be huge for our under — and I expect the Cardinals to lean on the run more as they’ll want to keep their defense off the field with stud EDGE rusher Chandler Jones out.

The Cowboys have been giving up a ton of points this season, but not massive passing yards to opposing QBs: Only Russell Wilson has thrown for more than 287.5 yards against them. That’s one of five opposing QBs, and Kyler has gone over 287.5 in only one of five games so far, too.

The market is a bit inflated due to the Cowboys giving up a ton of points, but the Cardinals are likely to opt to run all over this defense, including Murray.

I’ll take the under down to 280.5, but here are the projected chances of him going over or under various lines based on my 10,000 simulations:

Pass Yards
Over
Under
273.5
50.0%
50.0%
274.5
49.3%
50.7%
275.5
48.7%
51.3%
276.5
48.1%
51.9%
277.5
47.1%
52.9%
278.5
46.4%
53.6%
279.5
45.6%
54.4%
280.5
44.9%
55.1%
281.5
44.4%
55.6%
282.5
44.1%
55.9%
283.5
43.6%
56.4%
284.5
43.2%
56.8%
285.5
42.6%
57.4%
286.5
42.4%
57.6%
287.5
42.1%
57.9%

[Bet now at BetMGM and get a $500 INSTANT deposit match]


NFL Prop Bet for Chiefs-Bills

  • The Pick: Demarcus Robinson Over 29.5 Rec Yards (-105)
  • Bet Now: FanDuel

The last time Robinson cleared this number was Week 10 of 2019 against the Titans. I think he ends that streak tonight.

Sammy Watkins is set to miss the game with a hamstring strain, and Robinson will be one of the WRs who helps pick up the slack. I’m projecting him to run a route on 85-90% of Patrick Mahomes’ dropbacks tonight, which on its face comes with a built-in upside.

DRob is typically fifth or sixth in the target pecking order and has averaged an 11% target rate on pass routes over the past two seasons. We can expect that rate to bump up closer to the 12-13% range as the fourth or fifth option tonight.

I’m projecting DRob to see 4-5 targets in a slightly expanded role. His catch rate of 53.3% on the season illustrates poor play to-date, but we should expect some positive regression from DRob in an expanded role. A big part of the low catch rate has been due to his split on catchable balls: 67% in 2020 vs. 84% in 2019.

I set this line closer to 35.5 and would bet it up to 32.5, but remember that every yard matters, so it’s critical to get the best number. Here are his projected chances of going over or under various lines based on my 10,000 simulations:

Yards
Over
Under
29.5
59.5%
40.5%
30.5
58.4%
41.6%
31.5
56.4%
43.6%
32.5
54.7%
45.3%
33.5
53.0%
47.0%
34.5
51.7%
48.3%
35.5
49.7%
50.3%

If this market has dried up by the time you’re reading, I would bet the over on his receptions up to 2.5 (-150).

[Bet Demarcus Robinson’s Over at FanDuel completely risk-free for $1,000]

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