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NFL Week 1 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Newsletter

NFL Week 1 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Newsletter article feature image

With the 2022 NFL season upon us, the Action Network presents the best tour of the league you’ll find anywhere to get you ready for NFL Week 1 — the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know.

Welcome to the Action Network NFL newsletter.

1. Thirty Years Later

The Buffalo Bills enter the regular season as the favorites to win the Super Bowl at +600, the first time Buffalo enters a year as the betting favorites since doing so in consecutive years between 1991 and 1992.

2. Jets, Anyone?

As of Sunday morning, the Jets (+6.5) had just 15% of the ticket count at home versus the Ravens. No NFL team has closed with fewer than 15% of tickets in their opener since the Seahawks back in 2010.

3. It’s Been A While

In Week 1, there are 10 home underdogs, the most such games in an opening week since the NFL moved to a 16-game schedule in 1978.

4. The Hangover

The Bengals are 7-point favorites at home versus the Steelers. The loser of the Super Bowl has faced a tough time getting over their hangover in Week 1 of the following season, going 4-18 ATS since 2000.

5. Going For Eighteen…

The Browns haven’t won a Week 1 game since defeating the Ravens and Kyle Boller back in 2004. They are 0-16-1 straight up in that span, forcing a tie versus the Steelers back in 2018.

NFL Week 1


Click on a topic to skip ahead
Thursday Night Football
BUF 31, LAR 10
Market Movers
Biggest Week 1 line moves
Sharp Report
How the pros are betting Week 1
The Big Picture
The smart way to bet NFL MVP
Action Audio
Best NFL podcasts for Week 1
Rapid Fire
Week 1 game-by-game betting notes
What’s Next?
Early Week 2 betting trends

Thursday Night Football

Thursday, Sept. 8
8:20 p.m. ET
NBC
Bills Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-1.5
52.5
-124
Rams Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+1.5
52.5
+108
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

History says bet the Rams…

+ Home teams in the Week 1 Thursday night opener are 12-6-3 ATS since 2000.

+ Reigning Super Bowl champions are…

  • 10-5-2 in seventeen weekday primetime openers starting back in 2004.
  • 14-7-1 ATS in Week 1 of the following season since 2000.

Bettors Aren’t Listening

+ According to Action Network betting data, 57% of bets and 70% of the handle are on the Bills (-2.5) against the Rams.

Doubting The Champs

+ The Rams are the sixth Super Bowl champion to be listed as an underdog in Week 1 of the following season and the first since the 2018 Philadelphia Eagles.

+ The previous five such teams were 4-1 straight up and against the spread in their opener. Of those five teams, only one — the 2018 Eagles — eventually made the playoffs a year after their Super Bowl victory.


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Market Movers

For more information on betting percentages, line moves and ticket counts, access our Action Network odds dashboard.

Biggest NFL Week 1 Public Sides
(The most popular spread bets for Week 1)

(-6.5)
85% of bets at Jets
(-6.5)
80% of bets at Seahawks
(Pick’em)
76% of bets vs. Browns

Most Bet Games by Ticket Count in Week 1
(The most popular bet games for Week 1; excluding Thursday Night Football)

(+6.5)
140,000 betting tickets
(+6.5)
123,000 betting tickets
(+7)
121,000 betting tickets

Biggest Line Moves in Week 1

Spread Movers (lines opened back in May):

(+4 to -1)
5-pt move vs. Browns
(-3 to -6.5)
3.5-pt move at Cardinals
(+1.5 to -1.5)
3-pt move vs. Packers

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The Sharp Report

PRO Report

Sharp bet
Giants +5.5 | 4:25p ET
Bet %
TEN: 55% of bets
Handle %
NYG: 77% of handle

If you want to make betting decisions for yourself, but don’t have the time to collect all the data, check out our NFL PRO Report. This analysis highlights five key betting signals: big money, sharp action, expert projections, expert picks, and historical betting systems.


None reach threshold yet in Week One. Check below for our spread, over/under and moneyline projections.

Our model’s odds compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade B of a 3.5% edge before considering a bet based solely on projections.


PRO Systems

NFL Perception System: “This system looks to take advantage of the perceptions that the team may not be very good based on last season’s results. Small dogs when the total isn’t too high have covered at a very high rate, and we removed Thursday Night Football games to avoid short turnarounds.”
Week 1 picks -> PRO Access



PRO Props

Top Props for Week 1: Jarvis Landry, New Orleans Saints
Bet: Under 40.5 receiving yards (-115)

Prop projections and grades for every NFL player in the Action App.

How to use the Action Network’s PRO Report to make your betting decisions easier.


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The Big Picture

We’re Going Streaking: Which teams enter the regular season on the longest against-the-spread winning and losing streaks?

Winning Streaks:

8-game ATS streak


+7
44.5
-7

5-game ATS streak


-6.5
40.5
+6.5

Losing Streaks:

7-game ATS streak


Pick’em
41.5
Pick’em

6-game ATS streak


+5.5
44
-5.5

 

How To Win NFL MVP: Trends from Brandon Anderson
1.
14 of the last 15 MVPs have been quarterbacks (including 19 of 22 since 2000).
2.
The 14 QB MVPs went 187-38 (83.1%) straight up. That’s a 14.1-win pace over a 17-game season. In the last 15 years, only 2008 Peyton Manning finished outside the top-2 playoff seeds.
3.
21 of the past 33 MVPs were won by just seven different QBs (Rodgers, Brady, Manning, Warner, Favre, Young, Montana).
4.
The average MVP’s stats during last the 15 years: 4,405 passing yards, 40.0 passing TDs, 7.8 interceptions.
5.
The last four MVPs started the season at +1100 odds or longer (including 6 of the last 7). That reversed the trend from the previous six years, where only one of those six winners started the year with longer than +800 odds.


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Action Audio

  • The Favorites Podcast: Action Network betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return with a roundup of their top picks heading into Week 1.

  • Season Leaders: Action Network NFL betting experts Chris Raybon, Brandon Anderson and Gilles Gallant discuss some of the most entertaining season-long NFL betting markets.

  • Anytime TD Manifesto: Like betting props during the NFL season? Our newest NFL betting expert Gilles Gallant joins the podcast to discuss his approach to the Anytime Touchdown market, a niche area of NFL betting that has exploded in popularity in recent seasons.

For more Action Network podcasts, check out our page with a portfolio of ten different options across eight different sports.


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Rapid Fire

Ravens at Jets

All About Prep. The Ravens are 32-12 straight up and 27-15-2 against the spread under John Harbaugh with at least 10 days to prepare for a game, including Week 1.

History at MetLife. If the Jets close as 7-point underdogs or higher, it will be the highest spread at home for either New York team in a Week 1 game since 1978.

-6.5
44
+6.5

Patriots at Dolphins

New Era in New England:

The Dolphins are listed as a 3.5-point favorite versus the Patriots in Week 1, breaking a streak of 16 consecutive games as an underdog versus New England.

The Patriots are +400 to win the AFC East, their longest odds to win the division since 2001, Tom Brady’s rookie season.

The Patriots’ win total is set at 8.5, their lowest since 2003.

The Patriots spent 18 years with preseason odds of 20-1 or shorter to win the Super Bowl. New England has now had odds of 40-1, 30-1 & 35-1 the last 3 years to win it all.

+3.5
46
-3.5

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Steelers at Bengals

King Dog. The Steelers are 47-26-3 ATS (64.4%) as an underdog under Mike Tomlin. A $100 bettor would be up $1,940 betting the Steelers as underdogs, making Tomlin the most profitable coach as a dog since 2003.
     + Overall, the Steelers haven’t finished a season below .500 against the spread as an underdog since 2016 and its only happened twice under Tomlin.
     + Steelers are 19-6-2 ATS (76%) as an underdog vs. AFC North opponents under Tomlin.

Long Path. Pittsburgh is listed at 80-1 to win the Super Bowl this season, their longest odds to win it all since the NFL-AFL merger in 1976.

Largest Underdog for Steelers vs. Bengals Since 1978
+ 1989: +10 at CIN (L, 41-10)
+ 1988: +9 at CIN (L, 42-7)
+ 1986: +7.5 at CIN (L, 24-22)
+ 2022: +6.5 at CIN
+ 2013: +6.5 at CIN (L, 20-10)

+7
44.5
-7

49ers at Bears

Pick Your Poison:

  • The 49ers are 35-16 straight up and 29-21-1 against the spread with Jimmy Garoppolo as QB. With all other QB in that span? They are 8-28 SU and 15-21 ATS.
    + Justin Fields has played four games as a home underdog in his NFL career. The Bears are 0-4 SU and ATS, scoring more than 14 points just once.

Go With The Dog?

The 49ers-Bears game is the only one on the board in Week 1 with an over/under below 42.

Underdogs in games with an over/under below 42 are 86-54-3 ATS (61.4%) since 2018. In the first 8 weeks of the regular season, that spikes to 39-17 ATS (69.6%).

-6.5
40.5
+6.5

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Eagles at Lions

Did You Know? Jared Goff is 5-0 against the spread in Week 1 in his NFL career, covering the spread by 10.4 PPG. Goff is the only undefeated QB ATS in Week 1 (min. 4 starts) since 2003.

Hard Out. The Lions finished 2021 3-13-1 SU and 11-6 ATS, becoming the first team in the Wild Card era (since 1990) to cover 60%+ of games in a season with 3 straight up wins or fewer.

-5.5
48.5
+5.5

Colts at Texans

Quick Takes…
+ Under Frank Reich, the Colts are 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS in Week 1.
+ Since 2008, the Colts are 1-12-1 ATS (2014 last cover) in Week 1
+ Week 1 is Davis Mills’ 12th career start (all 12 as an underdog — 5-6 ATS).
+ In the last 15 years, five teams have been underdogs by more than a TD at home in Week 1. They are 0-5 SU, but 5-0 ATS.

-7
45.5
+7

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Jaguars at Commanders

Road Woes. Trevor Lawrence is 0-8 straight up (2-6 ATS) on the road in his NFL career, failing to cover the spread by 10.6 PPG. In his last 4 road games, the Jaguars are being outscored, 133-38.

Go Jags Go. As of now, 72% of bets are on the Jaguars (+2.5) in Washington. This would be the 3rd time bettors are backing the Jags with Trevor Lawrence: Jags are 0-2 SU and ATS, both to the Texans, failing to cover the spread by 20.3 PPG.

+3
44
-3

Chiefs at Cardinals

Up To The Bill. The Chiefs-Cardinals over/under is listed at 53.5. Over the last 7 years, only three other games have had a total of 53 or more in Week 1; all three included either the Chiefs or Cardinals, and all three games totaled at least 50 points.

-6.5
53.5
+6.5

Raiders at Chargers

Anytime, Any Place. Looking for some “Anytime TD” advice?
+ Hunter Renfrow finished with the ninth-most red-zone targets (25) in the NFL in 2021 and was the most profitable anytime TD scorer for the Raiders at +4.5 units.
+ Buyer Beware on Darren Waller? The Chargers have ranked in the bottom-five in TD allowed to TE in each of the last two seasons.

+3.5
52
-3.5

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Packers at Vikings

Minneapolis Miracle. The Vikings opened as 1.5-point underdogs against their NFC North rival Packers. Minnesota hasn’t opened the season as Week 1 home underdogs since 1985 when they were 11-point home dogs versus Joe Montana, Jerry Rice and the 49ers (Vikings upset Niners, 28-21).

King of the North. Aaron Rodgers has opened up the season versus a divisional opponent six times in his career; he is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. In the first two weeks of the season? 11-1-1 SU and 11-2 ATS versus divisional opponents.

+1.5
46.5
-1.5

Buccaneers at Cowboys

Rare Home Dog. The Cowboys are 2.5-point home underdogs in Week 1 versus the Bucs. Dak Prescott’s first game as a home dog since December, 2019 versus the Rams (DAL won, 44-21).

Overall, Dak Prescott is 12-3 straight home and 10-5 against the spread at home in primetime in his career.

Don’t Doubt Dallas. Not only are the Cowboys home underdogs, but the public is betting the Bucs.

Dallas has 45% of the ticket count as of now. As home underdogs with the minority ticket count, the Cowboys have covered seven consecutive games dating back to 2017.

-2.5
50.5
+2.5

Broncos at Seahawks

History on Seattle. The Seahawks are currently 6.5-point home underdogs on Monday Night Football versus the Broncos. In the last 50 Monday Night Football games in Week 1 since 1998, underdogs are 27-12-1 ATS.

Watch The Moneyline. Since the NFL-AFL merger in 1976, only seven teams have been listed as a home underdog of over 4 points on Monday Night Football in Week 1. Those teams are 0-7 straight up, but a tight 3-4 against the spread.

Primetime Russ? In Russell Wilson’s career, he is 26-15-3 ATS (64.3%) under the lights (7p ET or later), the 3rd-most profitable QB in Bet Labs behind Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers.

But recently, Russ is just 2-8 ATS in primetime, losing four straight ATS.

Take Me Back. The Seahawks’ win total is set at 5.5 entering the regular, their lowest win total since 1993 (also set at 5.5; Seattle won 6 games).

-6.5
44.5
+6.5

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What’s Next?

Week 1 Overreaction

Per our Bet Labs database, here are some ATS numbers since 2003 for Week 2 underdogs that speak to the overreaction narrative:

+ Overall: 145-119-7 ATS (54.9%)
+ Lost SU in Week 1: 85-66-3 ATS (56.3%)
+ Failed to cover by a TD or more in Week 1: 53-37-2 ATS (58.9%)
+ Lost SU as a favorite in Week 1: 32-20-2 ATS (61.5%)

Patriots at Steelers

  • New Era. The Patriots and Steelers will play their first game without either Tom Brady or Ben Roethlisberger since December 6, 1998. Drew Bledsoe vs. Kordell Stewart at Three Rivers Stadium. A 23-9, New England (+4.5) win at Pittsburgh.
  • Rare Dogs. If the Patriots close as underdogs in Week 1 and Week 2, it will be the first time they’ve closed as underdogs in their first two games since the 2003 season.

Buccaneers at Saints

  • Tom’s Thorn. Tom Brady is 1-4 ATS versus the Saints over the last 5 seasons, his least profitable opponent ATS.

Seahawks at 49ers

  • Big Number. The Seahawks are currently 8.5-point underdogs in Week 2 at the 49ers. That would match Seattle’s largest spread ever against the 49ers (also +8.5 back in 2002).

Bears at Packers

  • I Own You. Aaron Rodgers is 21-7 ATS, 23-5 straight up versus the Bears (incl. playoffs). Rodgers has won and covered his last six meetings versus Chicago.
  • Lambeau Leap. Aaron Rodgers is 19-9 ATS at home over the last 3 seasons. A $100 bettor would be up $845, most in the NFL and the most profitable 3-year stretch at home ATS for Rodgers.


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