Packers vs. 49ers Picks, Betting Odds & Predictions for Sunday Night Football: How to Bet This Marquee Matchup

Packers at 49ers Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

• Odds: 49ers -3
• Over/Under: 48
• Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: NBC

Odds as of Saturday evening.

The NFC's top spot is at stake on Sunday night.

The conference's current No. 1 San Francisco 49ers will host the No. 2 Green Bay Packers for a primetime showdown. So with all the implications this game will carry, who has the edge from a betting perspective?

Our experts break down every angle of Sunday Night Football, featuring staff picks and a comparison of the odds to Sean Koerner's projections.

Sunday Night Football Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Packers

Coming off the bye, the Packers are in excellent shape. Davante Adams (toe) was limited in practice, but wasn’t on the final injury report, and they have no player of note who is slated to miss this game.

The 49ers, meanwhile, are brutal shape.

They already ruled out elite pass-rusher Dee Ford (quad/hamstring) and offensive lineman Joe Staley (finger), while Matt Breida (ankle) is listed as doubtful. Emmanuel Sanders (ribs), George Kittle (knee) and Deebo Samuel (shoulder) are also all listed as questionable. Most of their offense is coming into this game hobbled (no big deal). — Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Both Rushing Offenses vs. Both Rushing Defenses

The 49ers pass defense is playing at an elite level, ranking second in Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA. Their safety and corner play has improved dramatically, and it doesn't hurt that their elite pass rush ranks No. 1 in adjusted sack rate.

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Pass rush and secondary production obviously go hand in hand, and right now, the 49ers have the league's best defensive front when it comes to getting to the quarterback. Coordinator Robert Saleh is also mixing up his scheme looks more often, which is making it tougher for opposing quarterbacks to get a read compared to when the 49ers ran a much more frequent Cover 3 look.

Similarly, I really like the Packers pass defense, which has also significantly improved corner play and upgraded production at safety with the additions of Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage this past offseason. They also added a pair of quality edge rushers in Za’Darius and Preston Smith, who both rank inside the top 10 of Pro Football Focus' pass rush productivity among 80 edge rushers with a minimum of 150 snaps this season. (Unsurprisingly, San Fran is the only other team to have two players in the top 10 with Ford and Nick Bosa.)

That said, neither defense is anywhere close to as strong against the run.

From a DVOA perspective, the 49ers rank 19th in rush defense while the Packers come in even worse at 28th. Green Bay's defensive line has been especially poor against the run, ranking 32nd in adjusted line yards (per Football Outsiders).

Both have been very poor in terms of giving up carries of five-plus yards. And each will be going up against two very formidable rushing attacks that should have success moving the ball on the ground in chunk yards.

That said, the 49ers rush offense has started to scuffle the past few weeks without Kittle. His presence requires so much attention and he's a key run-blocker on the edge.

Without Kittle, Kyle Shanahan's rushing attack is nowhere near as potent, so the tight end's status has absolutely enormous implications for this game. With Kittle, the 49ers should efficiently move the ball up and down the field with a run-heavy attack. Without him, it won't be as easy — especially if Samuel and/or Sanders are also out.

I also expect the Packers to have plenty of success running the ball with their fourth-ranked rush offense DVOA in order to exploit the softest spot of the 49ers defense at linebacker. Aaron Rodgers not having to deal with Ford is an added bonus. — Stuckey

Sean Koerner's Projected Odds

• Projected Spread: 49ers -3.5
• Projected Total: 46.5

This total initially opened at 45.5 but has since skyrocketed to 48 as books attempt to figure out where the action will start to balance out. I’m not so sure they’ve found their answer yet as it looks like they are still seeing more than 60% of the action come in on the over at 48 (see live public betting data here).

It could be worth waiting to see if this total can go any higher before coming in on the under, though I went ahead and played it at 48.

Both teams are likely to lean on their running game. And the 49ers are the 25th ranked team in terms of pace of play while the Packers are 31st (per Football Outsiders), so it’s more likely this matchup favors the environment for the under. — Sean Koerner

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Expert Pick

Matthew Freedman: Packers +3

Rodgers off the bye is 8-1-1 against the spread (per Bet Labs), and the Packers are as healthy as any team in the league. They have every starter available for the game.

The 49ers are rather injured. Staley is out. Ford is out. Breida and kicker Robbie Gould are technically doubtful but aren't expected to play. And Kittle, Sanders and Samuel are questionable — they'll probably play, but all of them are likely to be physically limited.

The Packers and 49ers have similar records, but the Packers have played a much tougher schedule, with wins over quality opponents in the Vikings, Cowboys, Raiders and Chiefs. Meanwhile t he 49ers have victories over just one quality opponent: The disappointing Rams.

I wouldn't bet the Packers past +3, but I do like them at that number.

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