Rovell’s Top 5 Most Interesting Super Bowl Props: Do They Have Value?
Picture by Getty Images.
Ever since Caesars Palace offered William "The Refrigerator" Perry to score a touchdown in Super Bowl XX in 1986, prop betting for the big game has taken off. The number of options from sportsbooks today border on absurdity — as do the props themselves.
I went through as many as I could to bring you the most ridiculous props. Afterward, I made a value assessment as to whether you should wager on them or not.
1. Will a Rostered Defensive Player Score An Offensive Touchdown? (+2000 at Caesars)
As a tribute to that "Fridge" Super Bowl prop, Caesars is offering this prop. The odds on the Fridge started at 20/1, but quickly dropped to 4/1 and 2/1 before it actually hit in the game.
Caesars lost $120,000 on that prop that day. Adjusted for inflation, that's about $320,000.
What you need to know is that besides the Fridge, only one other defensive player has scored an offensive touchdown in the 56 other games: New England Patriots linebacker Mike Vrabel, who scored receiving TDs in Super Bowl XXXIX and XXXVIII.
At +2000 odds, the implied probability is about 4.8%. The real odds should be closer to +2750, which means you'd be paying a 1.3% premium.
2. Will the Final Score Be A Scorgami? (+1600 at Caesars)
A scorgami occurs when a game finishes with a unique score, one that's never been done in NFL history. There have been 1,075 unique scores. Will the Super Bowl be one?
What you need to know is that there have been three scorgamis this season:
- Week 4: 48-45 (Seahawks beat Lions)
- Week 13: 54-19 (Cowboys beat Colts)
- Week 16: 22-18 (Bengals beat Patriots)
Three Super Bowls have actually turned out to be Scorgamis and interestingly, they've all involved the Denver Broncos.
- Super Bowl XXI: 39-20 (Giants beat Broncos)
- Super Bowl XXIV 55-10 (49ers beat Broncos)
- Super Bowl XLVIII: 43-8 (Seattle beat Broncos)
At +1600 odds, the implied odds for this prop are 5.9%. Meanwhile, the odds should be closer to +9000.
So, you're losing about 4.8% of value by simply inputting this wager.
3. Will A Player Get Ejected? (+1000 at BetRivers)
We love the prop idea here, but don't necessarily love the odds.
This prop has only occurred once in Super Bowl history: when Seattle Seahawks linebacker Bruce Irwin was ejected in the penultimate play in the team's Super Bowl XLIX loss to the Patriots.
The odds for this prop should be closer to +5450.
4. Will There Be An Octopus (+1400 at DraftKings)
An octopus is when a player who scores a touchdown also scores the following two-point conversion, thus hitting an octopus for eight points.
There have been 7,785 games since the 2-point conversion was implemented and only 175 octopi have happened. That 2.25% probability means odds should be roughly +4350.
But this season, both quarterbacks have converted an octopus — both this season, too.
Both Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts have converted octopuses this season, which may increase the implied odds on this prop just a hair.
Using this season as data, the 2.25% octopus probability jumps to about 3.7% with Mahomes and Hurts in tow. That means you'll end up paying just a roughly 3% premium instead of a 4.4% one.
Still, a premium is a premium.
There have been 28 Super Bowls since the implementation of the two-point conversion. There have been 10 two-point conversions and no octopuses.
5. What color of Gatorade will be poured on the winning coach? (Orange +350, Yellow/Green +400, Blue +400, Red/Pink +450, Clear/Water +500, Purple +750, None +1000 at DraftKings)
This isn't a new invention, but it's still one of my crazy favorites.
Blue has shockingly hit three out of the last four years, which means that it's now at shorter odds. There used to be a much wider gap between orange, yellow and green and blue, but things have come around in recent years on account of blue's success.
The Chiefs' previous win was orange, the Eagles' previous win was yellow.
Here are how the Super Bowl Gatorade colors have hit over the last 20 years:
- Orange — 6 Times
- Blue — 5 Times
- Clear — 4 Times — Four in row (Super Bowls 39, 40, 41, 42)
- Yellow — 2 Times
- None — 2 Times
- Purple — 1 Time
I like yellow/green — that was the color the Eagles used to douse coach Nick Sirianni after the NFC title game. Yellow is also the color that the Eagles hit Doug Pederson with after they won it in 2018.
That doesn't seem to be too much of a surprise to bettors, as a plurality of 42% of the bets are currently on yellow/green.
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