Rams vs Seahawks Odds, Pick, Prediction: Bet Seattle in Week 13
Jane Gershovich/Getty Images. Pictured: Geno Smith.
- The Rams are home underdogs against the Seahawks in Week 13.
- The line moved to Seattle +6.5 on Sunday morning.
- Cody Goggin breaks down the game and makes a betting pick.
Rams vs Seahawks Odds
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 40.5 -118o / -104u | +250 |
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 40.5 -118o / -104u | -310 |
At this point of the season, the Los Angeles is one of the worst teams in the NFL with their current roster. On paper, it should be hard to find a Rams vs. Seahawks pick.
This week, the reigning champions will be without almost all of their key players from last year’s Super Bowl. Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Allen Robinson and Aaron Donald will all be sidelined, along with numerous injuries to the offensive line.
The Seahawks had a bit of a scare earlier in the week with an illness going around the locker room, but it appears that has subsided as most of those players were removed from the injury report on Friday. Only three players are even listed as questionable for Seattle this week, so there’s a chance that they could be at full strength.
Typically, betting on a big home underdog in a divisional game would be a wise play, but with the differences in health between these two rosters and how they have both played this season, this line may not be high enough.
Rams vs. Seahawks Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Rams and Seahawks match up statistically:
Rams vs. Seahawks DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 8 | 16 | |
| Pass DVOA | 4 | 26 | |
| Rush DVOA | 23 | 5 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 27 | 19 | |
| Pass DVOA | 25 | 21 | |
| Rush DVOA | 27 | 19 | |
John Wolford will be getting the start under the center for the Rams this weekend. His only previous game this season was his 212 passing yard performance in a losing effort to Arizona. With how devoid of talent this offensive roster is right now, it likely doesn’t matter who is playing quarterback as even Stafford struggled for much of the year.
This Rams offensive line is one of the worst in the league this season. They have battled injuries and had to throw out multiple combinations of inexperienced players into a system that is reliant on competent offensive line play. The Rams are ranked 30th in PFF pass blocking grade and 20th in run blocking this season. They also rank 23rd in ESPN’s pass block win rate and 27th in run block win rate.
Bet Seattle vs. Los Angeles at FanDuel
This has all led to Los Angeles’ offense being among the worst in the NFL. The Rams rank 30th in EPA per play and 29th in success rate. Their problems have shown in both the run and pass game as they are 30th in dropback EPA and 29th in rushing EPA.
Early downs are really killing the Rams. Their EPA on first and second down this season is comically low when compared to the rest of the league. Los Angeles is averaging -0.166 EPA per play on early downs this season while the next closest team is at -0.063. They are last in both passing and rushing EPA on early downs. This is the lowest mark by any team in a season since the 2016 Rams.
Seattle’s offense has been a pleasant surprise this season. The Seahawks rank eighth in EPA per play and success rate. Geno Smith and the passing offense have fueled much of this success. The Seahawks rank second in passing success rate and seventh in passing EPA. Smith is playing at a level that he never has before, leading the league in Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) and ranking eighth in adjusted EPA per play.
Neither defense has been outstanding this year, but Seattle’s has been a notch lower. The Seahawks rank 26th in EPA per play allowed but ninth in success rate as they tend to allow big plays. Meanwhile, this Rams’ defense ranks 15th and 12th in those two categories respectively, but the loss of Donald will loom large.
Betting Picks
The amount of injuries that this Los Angeles team has endured this season is just too much for any team to handle and that will likely show again this weekend. This team has been incapable of moving the ball all season long and now will be without the best defensive player in the league for the foreseeable future.
The Seahawks' offense is perfectly capable of taking advantage of these extra drives and should have a fairly successful day on offense. Smith and this passing attack, along with a Seattle rushing scheme that can take advantage of Donald’s absence up the middle, will be able to cover this seven point spread.
Pick: Seahawks -6.5 (Bet to -7) |
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