Stuckey’s Week 11 NFL Teaser Betting Guide: Ranking the 5 Best Options for Sunday
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cowboys offensive tackle Tyron Smith (77), running back Ezekiel Elliott (21) and quarterback Dak Prescott (4) at AT&T Stadium.
- Week 11 of the NFL season only offers a few different viable teaser betting options on Sunday.
- Stuckey reviews his teaser rules of thumbs and ranks his five favorite teaser options for this week.
It’s time to talk teasers.
Each week, I sit down and look at the NFL betting board to identify which teams fit my teaser criteria. From there, I select which ones I like for potential teasers based on matchups and other factors (for example, as explained in this article, teasers have more value in games with lower totals).
As a reminder, I have five rules of thumb to note before ever betting an NFL teaser, which should really be the only sport you consider teasers as serious investments.
- Cross At Least Two Key Numbers (preferably three)
- Don’t Ever Cross Zero
- Don’t Tease Totals
- Price Matters
- Know Your Book
Everything I’m saying applies only to two-team teasers. If you’re a recreational bettor just looking for entertainment value and want to throw in a sweetheart teaser to liven up your Sunday for a few dollars, I’m not here to judge.
Crossing two key numbers is the bare minimum. I almost exclusively bet a teaser if both sides cross at least three key numbers (3, 4 and 6, for example). And ideally, I’m crossing both the 3 and 7 to cross four key numbers, which gives me an edge over books in a vacuum.
Revisiting the Math
In order to break even on a six-point teaser at -110, you need teams that have a greater than 72.4% chance of covering after being teased. If we look back in our Bet Labs database, all NFL regular-season spreads since 2003 covered only 69% of the time if teased six points. Nice, but not nice enough.
The story changes if we filter for all teases that would’ve captured both the 3 and 7.
NFL regular-season underdogs between +1.5 and +2.5 and favorites between -7.5 and -8.5 have covered exactly 75.0% of the time, which clears the aforementioned 72.4% hurdle rate.
But some books have smartened up and are no longer offering six-point NFL teasers at -110. (Believe it or not, they used to actually be offered at even money). So, if you can only bet a six-point teaser with -120 odds, do you still have an edge teasing through the 3 and 7 on both sides of an NFL teaser?
Assuming the past is a fair indicator of future results, the answer is yes.
In order to break even on a two-team, six-point teaser at -120 odds, you need to clear a hurdle rate of 73.9%. And as I showed above, we’re at 75.0% dating back to 2003.
It’s not the greatest edge, but it is even larger if you go back further in time — although then you run into potential non-stationary issues since the game has changed so much.
And remember, you can increase that edge by including other factors I mentioned before.
Regardless, try to find a book with the best possible odds for your six-point teasers; -120 is the maximum you should ever consider. For example, if you only had the option of betting a two-team teaser at -130 odds, it wouldn’t make sense, as the hurdle rate with those odds is 75.2%.
Now, let’s take a look at the best teaser options for Week 11.
My Week 11 Top Teaser Options
It’s not the greatest teaser week of the season but I do think there are five viable options, which I have ranked below based on my personal preferences and currently available lines:
- Cowboys -7.5 to -1.5
- Jaguars +2.5 to +8.5
- Bills -6.5 to -0.5
- Rams -6 to PK
- Jets +2.5 to +8.5
Teaser Options YTD: 30-12 (71.4%)
If I can’t cross both 3 and 7, my next preferred option is to tease a 6-7 point favorite (that I’m confident will win) down. And that’s the case with both the Rams and Bills this week. The Rams offensive line problems do scare me but I ultimately do trust the better quarterback and more talented team at home to get it done.
In regards to Buffalo, I think the Bills are clearly the superior team. It’s also a great matchup for them as the Dolphins are historically bad at running the ball — which is how you can attack the Buffalo defense.
I also have to include the Jets on this list as they fit the true “Wong criteria” of crossing the 3 and 7. Plus, the Over/Under, which currently sits at 38.5, suggests this will be a low scoring game. That makes teasing the dog even more valuable. That said, I fancy the Skins in this one.
My Favorite Week 11 Teaser
Cowboys -1.5/Jaguars +8.5
If you listened to our most Week 11 betting preview podcast episode from earlier in the week, I gave out Rams-Jaguars as my favorite teaser for Sunday. Well, that was before a Cowboys line was widely available as the market awaited the news on the status of Matthew Stafford.
With Jeff Driskel announced as the starter, the market opened and subsequently moved the Cowboys to a 7.5-point favorite. That looks about right to me but I think Dallas makes a great teaser piece and would put them ahead of the Rams on this list.
The Lions just don’t generate any pressure, so the elite Dallas offensive line should give Dak Prescott plenty of time to work his magic in the pocket all day long. And on the other side of the ball, the Lions have no running game to speak of and won’t have the services of Stafford under center. Dallas should come out of Detroit with a victory to at least keep pace with the Eagles atop the NFC East.
In regards to the Jaguars, they are coming off a much-needed bye week (7-1-1 ATS after last nine bye weeks) and will get Nick Foles back to run the show on offense. Plus, I think Leonard Fournette can have a big day against a very vulnerable Colts run defense.
The Jaguars have dominated this series of late, going 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight meetings but they might struggle to defend the Colt rushing attack themselves. That would also be on brand for the Colts as every single one of their games this year has amazingly been decided by one possession.
The Colts will get Jacoby Brissett back at quarterback but this offense is still very limited with the injuries it has suffered on the outside. And don’t forget about the Colts’ kicking woes as they are somehow still sticking with Adam Vinatieiri. Inexplicable!